RENO, NV – JANUARY 27: Grand Canyon Head Coach Bryce Drew calling out a play from the sideline during a college basketball game between the Grand Canyon Antelopes and the Nevada Wolf Pack on January 27, 2026, at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV. (Photo by Greg Ashman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
We are less than three months away from the start of the 2026-27 college basketball season and roughly six months away from the 2027 NCAA Tournament. All of it is still way too far away, but it’s never too early to forecasting the new season.
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OK, maybe in this instance, it is. But the new-look Mountain West will, once again, be competing for multiple bids in the expanded NCAA Tournament format (which, as a reminder, does NOT favor mid majors). So, what is my way-too-early calculations — no, I am not smart enough to create all these fancy schmany models — for each team’s chances at making next year’s dance?
(Editor’s note: The odds listed below should not be taken as seriously as they probably will be … these are a mere projection where I’m chucking darts blindfolded at a dartboard surrounded by windows.)
Air Force:
Skinny: Air Force lost 25-straight games and have not won more than 12 games in eight of the last 10 seasons. The only direction they can go is up, but I think we can rule this team out despite their roster continuity (most academy teams have continuity, even with the portal).
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Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: <0.01 percent
Grand Canyon:
Skinny: Grand Canyon made noise in their first season in the Mountain West last year, winning 20 games and finishing tied for second in the conference standings. Their offense, at times, was an eye sore, though they more than compensated for that with their defense that was one of the most connected and physical in the G5. Despite losing Jaden Henley to the pros, they retained Makaih Williams and added National Tournament darling … Dylan Darling (see what I did there?) in the portal, among several others. They should be at the forefront of a tournament possibility once again.
Matt’s uncalculated odds: 18 percent
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Hawai’i:
Skinny: The top of the Big West was competitive last year, with the top-seven teams finishing within four games of each other in conference play. Hawai’i was second, ultimately winning the conference tournament before losing by 19 to John Calipari’s Arkansas. Their no-help defense was incredibly unique — and finished as a top-50 unit nationally. However, they did lose their top-six scorers despite acquiring a respectable crop of transfers. Theres’s a path, but I currently don’t their odds as much as some of the others.
Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: 10 percent
Nevada:
Skinny: Nevada was arguably the offseason’s biggest winner by retaining Elijah Price and Vaughn Weems. Steve Alford brought in a number of solid transfers who could instantly impact their rotation. This is a good team. Though I have questions about Alford’s shortcomings in the latter portion the season with a weaker non-conference schedule.
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Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds:15 percent
Skinny: To me, New Mexico is the favorite to win the Mountain West. They have the best player in Jake Hall and arguably the best coach in Erik Olen, who won 26 games in his inaugural season with the Lobos after a 30-win season with UC San Diego. New Mexico has the best chance of any team to get back to the tournament after reaching the NIT Semifinals last season.
Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: 20 percent
Skinny: Tim Miles has done well with the sum of his parts, but San Jose State has reached double figure wins just three times since 2010-11: They won 14 games in 2016-17, 21 in 2022-23 and 15 in 2024-25. I don’t think they snap their 30-year skid of missing the tourney.
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Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: <1 percent
UC Davis:
Skinny: UC Davis has won 18-plus games in three of the last four seasons, last appearing in the NCAA Tournament in 2016-17. They were one of the seven aforementioned Big West teams who finished above .500 in conference play and retained some of their top talent, namely Connor Sevilla and Brayden Fagbemi. Still, there is an adjustment period playing in a different conference, especially since this group will be worse, which lessens its opportunity.
Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: <1 percent
UNLV:
Skinny: UNLV’s issue isn’t talent, it’s whether Josh Pastner is able to successfully maximize that talent and develop them into a NCAA Tournament contender. Him and his staff did a great job developing freshman Tyrin Jones, as well as maximizing Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn’s skillset as a scorer. But UNLV was wildly inconsistent. All they need to do is get hot in March, but they’re outside the top crop of teams.
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Matt’s unofficial chance: 10 percent
Skinny: UTEP lost six of their final seven and eight of their last 12, finishing 11-20 with a 7-13 conference record in a pretty poor Conference USA last season. They were among the bottom-65 teams offensively and, even if they improve to their 18-win mark they had in their previous two seasons, will have a steep climb to make any sort of tournament buzz in their inaugural MW season.
Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: <1 percent
Skinny: I’ll say it: I’m buying whatever Sundance Wicks is selling. He fell just outside of my top coaches list from a few weeks ago, but he’s an outstanding coach who’s building something at a program worth investing in. Coming off an 18-win season, the Pokes retained Nasir Meyer and Khaden Bennett, and could vie for a first-round bye in the conference tournament. With their coaching and continuity, this team can win 20-plus games.
Matt’s unofficial, uncalculated odds: 13 percent
