UFC 330: Where does Ian Machado Garry have edge over Islam Makhachev?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC 330’s main event between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry.

Islam Makhachev UFC 330 preview

Staple info:

Record: 28-1 MMA, 17-1 UFC
Height: 5’10” Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
Camp: Eagles MMA (Russia)/American Kickboxing Academy (San Jose, Calif.)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:

+ UFC welterweight champion
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Combat sambo world champion
+ 4x Russian sambo champion
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Improved overall striking
^ Solid variance in shot selection
+ Hard kicks from the left side
^ Favors chaining off singles
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Excellent trips, knees and tosses
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Wrist control, rides, passes

Ian Machado Garry UFC 330 preview

Staple info:

Record: 17-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC
Height: 6’3″ Age: 28 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

Supplemental info:

+ Cage Warriors welterweight title
+ Youth boxing experience
^ Slick lateral movement and distance management
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Good straight punches and kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good collar ties and whizzers
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
+ Improved transitional grappler
^ Works well toward the back
+/- 4-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry breakdown: Striking with a southpaw

The main event for UFC 330 features a welterweight title fight between two people who are very familiar when it comes to fighting in open-stance affairs.

Fighting out of a southpaw stance, Makhachev has shown himself to be much more than a sambo practitioner since stepping onto the UFC scene.

Fellow southpaw Adriano Martins may have been able to audit Makhachev’s early aggression with a perfectly placed check hook at UFC 192, but the Dagestani fighter has been steadily making improvements to his striking since his lone setback.

Now, it is not uncommon to see Makhachev play at a much safer range when looking to set up his shots and strikes. Whether Makhachev is sniping crosses down the centerline or mixing the targets of his kicking attacks, the 34-year-old does a solid job of constantly changing his level and varying his shot selection.

Makhachev’s patented right hook is still a key player in regards to both his countering and combination presence, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him press into clinching range considering the dynamic of this matchup.

Favoring single and double collar-tie variations in the clinch, Makhachev does a good job of utilizing well-placed knees to manipulate defenses and create openings for other forms of offense. That said, Makhachev will need to be mindful in and out of the breaks given the challenger’s similar striking sensibilities in this space.

Machado Garry, the orthodox fighter, comes from a grappling base but has dabbled with the striking arts from a young age.

An accomplished youth boxer, Machado Garry possesses solid straight punches down the center line from both stances. Although Machado Garry primarily operates out of orthodox, he occasionally switches sides for open-stance opportunities.

When feeling in stride, Machado Garry will attach kicks to his punches, punishing all three levels.

Machado Garry may take the back foot a bit too much for my liking, but his comfort with lateral movement and range-finding weapons allows him to build progress once he can establish his lead hand. And if an opponent over-commits from their power side, Machado Garry appears to have some natural pull counters in his repertoire regardless of what stance his opponent is operating out of.

That said, counter striking appears to be a potent two-way street in Machado Garry’s fights, so the Brazilian-Irishman must be mindful of what’s coming back at him on multiple levels.

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry point of interest: Winning the wrestling

Considering the on-paper strengths and strategies for this matchup, no one should be shocked if the shitting champion looks for takedowns early and often.

An avid wrestler, Makhachev, akin to his now-coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov, also scores a large part of his takedowns off of chaining attacks in clinch space.

Whether Makhachev is working from his favored single-leg position or hitting slick trips and tosses from tie-ups, the product from Dagestan displays solid adaptability in the wrestling realm. Nevertheless, Makhachev is not beyond hitting his own reactive shots in the open – something that a judoka like Machado Garry will need to be aware of.

Machado Garry may not be putting up Karo Parisyan-like throws in the octagon, but the judo black belt does do well at keeping a strong base and stymying opposition in closed quarters.

Offensively, Machado Garry will utilize more traditional takedown attacks despite his background, but the 28-year-old seems to prefer attempts from the clinch (which could be interesting considering Makhachev’s acumen in said space).

Machado Garry, who is an opportunistic back-taker, has also made concerted efforts to improve his grappling since working down in Brazil with everyone from Charles Oliveira to Demian Maia. “The Future” has subsequently shown upgrades to his grappling in said time, but Garry’s defense will undoubtedly be tested to another level against Makhachev.

Machado Garry, for example, is insistent on establishing a whizzer on his right side for defense, while Makhachev prefers operating from a strong underhook off that very same side. And if Machado Garry is taken down, the title challenger has shown everything from conservative closed-guard work to offensive K-control variations in transition.

I also noticed that Machado Garry defaults to and from the tripod position in defensive scrambles. Despite Machado Garry, akin to many judokas in MMA, doing a good job of getting their ass high to maintain a steep slope that dissuades back-take attempts, turtle and tripod positions alike also inherently invite front-headlock threats – which makes for a tricky tradeoff considering Makhachev’s patented, short-armed D’Arce choke.

Aside from having tremendous front-choke sensibilities, Makhachev is one of my favorite fighters to point to in regard to demonstrating the importance of wrist control.

An unsung hero in regard to effective martial arts techniques, Makhachev’s quiet control of hands and wrists helps stymie his opposition’s advances while he furthers his own.

Makhachev also employs stellar legwork that goes beyond his standing clinch work, as it’s not uncommon to see the 15-year pro incorporate crab rides in conjunction with back attacks (as seen in his finish of Thiago Moises).

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the sitting champion, listing Makhachev -370 and Machado Garry +265 via FanDuel.

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction, pick

Although you can argue that this fight could be lined a little wider in favor of Makhachev (who could certainly look like a 5-1 favorite if he gets his way on the ground), I’ve long been in the growing minority who think that Machado Garry could produce a uniquely difficult stylistic challenge for the current pound-for-pound kingpin.

Aside from officially standing undefeated at 4-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, I’ve argued for some time that Machado Garry arguably strikes better with southpaws than he does against orthodox opposition.

From Machado Garry’s ability to capitalize on countering dynamics that are traditionally enjoyed by southpaws to the fact that he actually jabs in open-stance affairs, it’s hard not to respect this aspect of his game.

Should Machado Garry’s distance management and footwork allow him long enough stanzas in the striking department, I won’t be shocked to see Brazil’s favorite Irishman rock Makhachev with a counter-balancing right hand or a head kick up high.

That said, there’s no denying the looming ground advantage for Makhachev in this fight.

Although Machado Garry’s submission defenses are likely improving along with the other aspects of his grappling, the challenger’s propensity to turtle or tripod to his base will serve as both a legitimate escape path, as well as an undeniable opportunity for danger.

I’ll also be curious to see if Machado Garry’s habit of skirting along the outside will hurt him considering that Makhachev completes most of his takedowns along the fenceline. But as far as takedown and clinch dynamics go, I’m fascinated to see that both fighters’ strengths line up with one another.

Makhachev, for example, favors chaining to and from single-leg variations for his takedown finishes. Whereas Machado Garry, who is training under one of MMA’s single-leg masters in Damian Maia, is not-so-coincidentally comfortable defending his legs by utilizing superb balance and fundamentals à la a high and tight whizzer.

In fact, I’ll be looking to see how Machado Garry’s insistence to whizzer off his right side plays opposite Makhachev’s propensity to play off a hard underhook on that same side. And though I largely agree with the odds as far as Makhachev’s chances to win out these exchanges over time, I suspect that Machado Garry can stymie the current champ in some key areas.

Akin to former welterweight champion Leon Edwards’ third meeting with Kamaru Usman, Machado Garry has made some notable upgrades to his clinch tactics and separations. From smartly prioritizing two-on-one grips in transit to properly using over-unders to make positive space, Machado Garry showed a solid uptick in his urgency and execution in this space during his last outing against former champ Belal Muhammad.

On its face, these points I bring up – though unique and potentially bearing fruit – shouldn’t be enough to sway me to pick against a pound-for-pound great like Makhachev.

But if I zoom out a bit on Makhachev’s resume, I noticed that Makhachev quietly lacks sample sizes striking against both tall and long fighters, as well as jabbers alike. So, if Garry’s size only proves to add to his previously-mentioned matchup attributes in closed quarters, then we may get a chance to see Makhachev have to answer this unique stylistic challenge (which is an orthodox MMA fighter who actually jabs and controls range in open-stance affairs).

It’s an incredibly unpopular pick for an incredibly unpopular fighter, but I’ll officially pick Machado Garry to upset the world by edging out the scorecards for a decision win.

Prediction: Machado Garry by decision

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry start time, how to watch

As the co-main event, Makhachev and Machado Garry are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:40 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC 330: Where does Ian Machado Garry have edge over Islam Makhachev?

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