
Today I am here to talk about the Saint Louis Cardinals and their statistical idiosyncracies, subtle characteristics, and peculiar statlines that could give us a better idea of who that player really is. The devil is in the details. The story is under that last rock unturned. You get the picture.
Hitting
DH/C: Ivan Herrera hasn’t had the most flashy year at the plate, but teams are putting him on base A TON via the walk or the HBP. It has been a storyline all season long about which Cardinals player has been hit by a pitch more, Herrera or Wetherholt, both at the top of the Cardinals lineup. At this point in the season, Herrera is starting to pull away from the pack in HBP with 13 to Wetherholt’s 10.
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So far, Ivan’s best wOBA/xwOBA comp has been Sal Stewart. That may not be as exciting as what I was hoping for, but Herrera is still one of the best Cardinals hitters without a doubt. While his power numbers are down from last year, I have a suspicion that pitchers are not giving him a lot to work with. That said, his average exit velocity is also down.
The good part is that Ivan Herrera is becoming an even more disciplined hitter, and while his defensive stats and baserunning do not look good, he has one of the best set of eyes in baseball, and is really good at ABS challenges both behind the plate catching and at the plate hitting.
Is Herrera a top 10 MLB hitting catcher? Yes! Is he a top 10 MLB catcher when defense is included? Almost. He’s tied for 11th. As purely a DH, Ivan falls down towards a top 20 player. Which is still pretty dang good! Also, all is not said and done: keep in mind Herrera is still down around .290 BABIP. Only 3 DHs in the NL strike out less than Ivan Herrera.
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Does Herrera have a lefty/righty split? Winn hits lefties better than righties this season.
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Homeboy or Road Warrior? Road Warrior
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Quirks: the Cardinals have been good in late and close games and in extra-inning affairs. And Herrera is a big part of this. His OPS is 1.833 in extra innings. And his late and close OPS gets a boost too.
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Is he hitting better in June? NO, he is hitting rather poorly so far.
UPDATE: 131 wRC+ after June 9th!
1B: Alec Burleson has been batting about as well as Bobby Witt Jr! His xwOBA and wOBA are almost the same as Bobby’s. Ok, so he’s hitting as good as a shortstop. How about other first basemen? He his hitting the same by wRC+ as Pittsburgh’s Ryan O’Hearn. So now we know the Pirates have their version of Burly. Burleson is perhaps a little better on defense and baserunning. Both NL Central first basemen narrowly miss the MLB top ten hitting first basemen.
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It may be notable that the best hitting first baseman, Ben Rice, is far overperforming his xwOBA and should come back down to Earth. Burleson should, if anything, be an even better hitter going forward.
Which first basemen are ahead of Burly in xwOBA? Bryce Harper, Nick Kurtz, Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, and… that’s it. When you include overall value, i.e. fWAR, Burleson is tied with Michael Busch, who is better at defense but worse at hitting than Alec. In the National League, only Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman are worth more WAR value than Burleson and Busch.
*stats pulled from Monday night (June 8th)
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Does Burly have a lefty/righty split? One of the most pronounced on the team! He hits righties much better at a .931 OPS clip, while showing again that he cannot hit lefties: .544 OPS! (2026)
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Homeboy or Road Warrior? Burly is Neutral towards the road.
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Quirks: Burly seems to see the ball MUCH better at Night. Unlike some of his teammates, he doesn’t hit well in late and close situations or in extra innings. He hits well leading off an inning! Maybe someone is looking for a lead-off hitter bad enough to overpay? I keed I keed, but I just randomly thought he would be a good leadoff hitter for someone.
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Is he hitting better in June? Yes, he is OPSing over 1.000 so far in June!
UPDATE: 134 wRC+ after June 9th!
2B: JJ Wetherholt has the same xwOBA as Ivan Herrera at this moment on June 8th at 5:30pm. Was anyone expecting JJ to be that good of a hitter? Not me! However, Wetherholt has been dealing with an oddity of having a wOBA .18 lower than his expected stat. While that alone is not super awful, looking at his BABIP of .269, you have to wonder a bit about what is going on here. Eventually, he is going to go on a hitting streak or something, if you ask me. He’s hitting more home runs than we thought.
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If you had JJ Wetherholt as one of the top 5 most valuable second basemen in all of baseball this season, I wouldn’t have believed you if you told me. But the reality is, with his defense being a fair deal better than Nico Hoerner’s, Wetherholt is only being outdone by Brice Turang of Milwaukee, and I expect him to come crashing down to Earth a bit before the season is done. Which would make JJ Wetherholt the best second baseman in baseball if he can improve on his 118 wRC+ even a little bit.
If there is anything to point at as a weakness here, it’s his barrel % and arm strength, which is whatever at this point. What a find! He comps well with what Luis Arraez is doing at second base, but with more impressive range on defense. (Arraez is playing surprisingly well at second base, by the way!).
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Does JJ have a lefty/righty split? LHH Wetherholt hits righties better than lefties (.790 to .672 OPS)
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Homeboy or Road Warrior? pretty Neutral (but better on the road)
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Quirks: Wetherholt hits better at Night. His BA in day games is barely over .200. JJ is another Cardinals BEASTMODE hitter in extra-inning games: 1.467 OPS, with an OPS of over 1.000 in late and close games as well! He seems to be able to pull through in those high-leverage situations.
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Is he hitting better in June? No, after a big downturn in May where Wetherholt OPS’d .665, JJ has been off to a rough start in June, but also hasn’t seen much playing time so far. He has 2 hits, 2 walks, and 1 strikeout in 14 PA, which I wouldn’t be too concerned about. I’m more worried that he should have been rested sooner, but oh well.
Update: Wetherholt went 1-5 so he’s at 116 wRC+ now
SS: Masyn Winn can his xwOBA salvage his unimpressive wOBA at this point? No, not really. Masyn just hasn’t been that good of a hitter this year. One area he’s been good at is not chasing bad pitches, but other than that, it’s not what we have been wanting to see. What we have wanted to see is Masyn Winn’s defense, and that does not disappoint!
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Winn’s fielding range, arm strength, and speed are all pretty top-notch. His hitting should improve some, but not a lot. Overall, who has been Winn’s best comp when it comes to value? Xander Bogaerts of the Padres. They are VERY similar players!
While Winn’s shortstop defensive prowess has been good, it has not been as elite as many were expecting. He still looks good out there by the eye, but much of that is his electric throwing arm and ability to narrowly beat even fast runners when it comes to getting to first base. Many have come to speculate that he is probably playing through some nagging injuries.
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Does Winn have a lefty/righty split? Winn hits lefties better than righties this year.
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Homeboy or Road Warrior? Neutral for Masyn.
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Quirks? Winn seems to see the ball better at night, and he takes his offense up several notches in late and close games and in extra inning affairs. Clutch? you decide!
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Is he hitting better in June? yes, he is hitting at .775 OPS this month, so far.
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*currently 83 wRC+ after an 0-4 June 9th vs the Mets
3B: Nolan Gorman I think I have been one of the only people holding out hope for Gorman over the last week, but even I am having to come around to the fact that Gorman is not treading water anymore, he is sinking. While his defense has been fine, his hitting profile keeps getting worse instead of better. He is now approaching the worst-hitting third baseman in MLB at 71 wRC+. Only two have been worse, one of which is Manny Machado, who will either turn it around or is hurt or something. So that pretty much leaves Gorman as the worst hitting third baseman in the National League at this point of the season.
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Gorman’s hitting has been so bad that he has now entered negative fWAR territory. Despite what statcast has dubbed a pretty decent range at third base. So his bat is tanking his whole game. What hitter does Gorman comp with fairly well? Adolis Garcia, except Adolis has a slightly more encouraging xwOBA (they’re tied in wOBA). Neither are acceptable at the plate in MLB. Alec Bohm of the Phillies is the other “stick a fork in him, they’re done” third baseman in the NL. Bichette and Machado also must make one wonder, what the heck is going on.
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Does Gorman have a lefty/righty split? Gorman hits righties better than lefties in 2026, but career-wise he is pretty much dead Neutral.
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Homeboy or Road Warrior? Homeboy, but not a huge difference.
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Quirks? Gorman’s xwOBAcon is .364, which is the only good takeaway here. Someone will have to remind me what that stat means again. Ok google gemini: xwOBAcon (Expected Weighted On-Base Average on Contact) is a sabermetric statistic in baseball that evaluates the quality of a hitter’s contact by measuring what should have happened when a ball is put in play, stripping away the effects of fielding and ballpark luck . I don’t think that’s even correct, but whatever. I’m just as skeptical about AI as you are. Anyways, this stat is much better than his regular wOBA stats. His OPS is good in extra innings, but not overall in late and close games, in case anyone was wondering. That’s yet another dude who has been good in extras! Albeit, all that means is that he got 1 hit in his 2 extra inning PA.
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Is he hitting better in June? NO… and he has gotten worse each month after a decent start.
RF: Jordan Walker how grumpy would we all be right now if Jordan Walker was another failed prospect like 26-year-old Nolan Gorman? I don’t want to imagine that! Jordan’s story is quite the opposite this season. While it seems like the same old song and dance with Gorman (or worse), Walker has totally flipped the script on us.
While Burleson was our best xwOBA hitter, Jordan is still #1 when it comes to wOBA, as he flirts with a .400 wOBA, his xwOBA is .372, which is also quite good. Jordan Walker is rubbing elbows with top flight, amazing hitters like Corbin Carroll, Munetaka Murakami, Kyle Schwarber, and dare I say it: Willson Contreras.
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By both wOBA and xwOBA statistics, Jordan Walker is closest to Yandy Diaz. As far as overall fWAR value for right fielders, Jordan Walker is top 3 in MLB, with the likes of fellow NL players Corbin Carroll and James Wood. That’s some good company! While I would expect to see some downturn for Walker’s hitting this season, his floor doesn’t seem so low anymore when looking at his xwOBA, and thinking about how his defense might improve to average some day as he progresses.
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Does Walker have a lefty/righty split? Jordan Walker crushes lefties to the tune of .962 OPS, which is even higher than his .909 OPS vs righties!
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Homeboy or Road Warrior? Neutral.
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Quirks? .476 xwOBAcon! Also, his launch angle and sweet spot % have improved so much this season! Also, Jordan Walker hits better during the Day: .969 OPS during the day, and .890 OPS at night.
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Is he hitting better in June? yes, but this is no surpise, Walker has been consistent all season, which may be the most encouraging part of the whole dang year so far! March: .988, April: .890, May: .912, June: 1.037.
CF: Nathan Church While we haven’t exactly “severed ties” with Victor Scott II, he was hitting at 57 wRC+ and that simply does not play at the MLB level. So Nathan Church gets his shot now. And we have liked the potential we have seen so far, if nothing else he is fun to watch defend the outfield, just like VSii. But, he has a better throwing arm. In fact, that is probably the #1 thing that will make it a no-contest between him and Victor Scott.
Church has a pretty elite throwing arm, is excellent on the basepaths, and while he probably won’t be nearly as rangey as Victor, it’s a small sample size… and he made some VERY entertaining, even thrilling, plays in the outfield. So the entertainment value has got to be higher.
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Before Nathan Church got hurt, his wRC+ was 88, which matches up exactly with CF Jacob Young of the Nationals, currently. While Church will not nearly be at that level of defense, it still seems somewhat encouraging to compare him to such a good player. Hopefully Church sticks and both the offense and defense improves with more playing time. As far as wOBA and xwOBA: they are nearly equal. But his BABIP was kind of low.
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Does Church have a lefty/righty split? Neutral.
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Homeboy or Road Warrior? Homeboy.
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Quirks? He likes to bat 9th in the order. Do it, Marmol! Also, he hits much better in the Day. Which of course, could be a small sample size, but I bet if you ask a lot of these guys, they’ll have a personal preference one way or the other. Also, Church showcased an ability to hit that sweet spot at the 69th percentile launch angle sweet spot, yeah baby. His chase % is among the very worst in baseball, however. It’ll be interesting to see how all this pans out for him, he had 5 HR in 156 PA so far.
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Is he hitting better in June? we do not know yet. But on June 9th, he had 3 hits!!!
UPDATE: 96 wRC+ after going 3 for 4 upon his return!
LF: Lars Nootbaar
Well I’ll make this one quick: Nootbaar has a home run in his only at bat vs a LHP: 5.000 OPS hahahah. 1.162 OPS in June. He hasn’t played hardly at all this year. But going forward, I don’t see how I can put someone else here. At least until after the trade deadline. Maybe the second third of the season belongs to Lars Nootbaar. The Lars Nootbaar chapter. Lars Nootbaar. Noot 2.0. I have no idea what to expect. Hopefully he doesn’t get hurt.
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What I’m truly hoping for is that this team gets a boost in the arm of the offense because of Lars Nootbaar and Nathan Church, but how much that effect will be is tough to tell. What might be even more of an upgrade: the bench seems a lot better now with Torres and Velazquez, Fermin seeing more playing time here and there.
2026 Pitching
SP#1: Dustin May this is where we can get into a legit debate over May vs McGreevy, but my gut says to go with Dustin May. He could be a true ace status, who knows. More on McGreevy’s good season in a second… Dustin May’s .306 xwOBA against has him as a top 25 MLB pitcher. Top 25! That’s pretty good in my opinion.
Dustin May is our very own Sandy Alcantara in regular wOBA against: that’s a top 50 MLB pitcher. Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Abbott have also had similar results by that metric. But it is May’s increased effectiveness as the season progresses, and that xwOBA being top 25 that makes me rank May as our staff ace.
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Dustin derives much of his value from his fastball, which is approaching the top, but also from his excellent walk rate. His flaws have been his breaking pitches and his hard hit %. Which does give me pause. LH hitting has gotten to him a lot, as well. He will remain one of the most interesting players to watch progress as the season goes along, and the storyline surrounding this trade chip potential has been one of the keys to the season.
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ERA 4.59 xERA 3.74 difference: -.85
Does this guy end the season under 4.0 ERA? He totally can! Maybe even under 3.75 ERA by end of the year.
Final verdict: top 20 pitcher by FIP and top 25 by xwOBA
UPDATE: after June 9th’s performance, Dustin is at 3.22 FIP, 4.21 ERA, 3.83 xFIP
SP#2: Michael McGreevy has held his own in 2026, with a lot expected of him, and he hasn’t disappointed. Going by regular ol’ weighted On Base Average (wOBA) against, McGreevy is a top 25 pitcher in MLB. On the bright side, Michael McGreevy has a better ERA than Paul Skenes at 2.99! His more predictive stats are rather scary though, which is the main reason I have him at #2. Michael McGreevy has the 2nd highest LOB% in the National League! Mr. McG creates a surplus of LOBsters for the other team.
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McGreevy lives and dies by his elite walk rate. His 2.12 BB/9 is the 6th best in the NL. At the end of the day, I think on a good playoff team, McGreevy might be more of a middle-of-the-rotation arm, but we will take who we can get right now, and he’s working out pretty well so far. Michael McGreevy’s best pitches are his fastball and offspeed pitches, while his breaking stuff needs work, just like Dustin May’s.
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Left-handed hitters, right-handed hitters, it doesn’t matter; they both hit him about the same.
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ERA 2.99 xERA 5.36 difference: +2.37!
Is anyone terrified? I could see why maybe you would be. But he has been an escape artist and able to leave a TON of men on base. I’m not sure what to make of it, but I’ll stand by the statement that he will live or die by his walk rate (and of course, his strand rate).
Final verdict: I feel like ultimately he is more of a middle rotation arm, and maybe even back of the rotation, but I hope he ends up being much better than I could imagine! If he can get his entire arsenal of pitches working and make that walk rate insanely low, he could very well be a #2 rotation arm.
SP#3: Andre Pallante, well, this was unexpected, but I do not see how I can rank him any lower than the middle of the rotation. Pallante’s xwOBA against is nearly identical to Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick, not too far behind where Dustin May is at. So as tough as it is to watch a guy with a WHIP of 1.3, we simply cannot write him off. His regular wOBA against isn’t too much worse than his xwOBA, and an ERA under 4 means he is getting the job done. His xERA is 3.84 and he hasn’t really been too bad this year. In 2024 he had the same WHIP.
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It’s not pretty, but he arrives at the right place
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Total FIP beater (ERA always better than FIP)
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One of the only Cardinals that has good breaking pitch run value
Final verdict: groundball pitcher. I don’t really know how good he is, but if he can repeat his 2024, he’s definitely a strength for the rotation.
Downside: not that fun to watch, gets hit hard at times, fastball is bad, and he usually pitches 5 innings. That said, he’s such an oddly specific pitcher that it just might work.
SP#4: Hunter Dobbins has looked so good recently that many of us are considering him as a potential savior to the rotation at this point. However, we should all reel that in a little bit, as the guy has only pitched 13 innings for the St Louis Cardinals. Last season, he pitched 61 innings for the Red Sox at 3.87 FIP coupled with a similar xERA.
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Dobbins problem so far has been his walk rate, but he seems to have a good fastball and K rate, along with the ability to induce ground balls. That could be a great combination and keep him effective in the back of the rotation (and hopefully, even more).
So far so good this season with the Cardinals: other than the terrible walk rate, he has a 2.77 ERA, a 3.57 FIP, and a 3.56 xFIP! Small sample of data, but exciting. ERA / xERA difference: +2.54, which tops McGreevy!
Final verdict: pump the brakes, but be excited at the same time. We just don’t have any idea yet. He has been fun to watch, though! Each pitcher has had their own style so far, which is really cool.
SP#5: Matthew Liberatore there was a slight chance that Liberatore was going to be the ace of this staff. Well that ship has sailed, and I might be surprised if it ever comes back. Uh, yeah, I will be very surprised.
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To put it bluntly, Liberatore hasn’t been good vs righties, or lefties; at home, or on the road. His bright side is his xFIP at 4.09, which is more than fine for a #4, if that’s what he is now. But the problem is that in every other category, he’s worse: xERA around 5.20, FIP 4.6.
His ERA is pretty good for a fifth starter, I guess: 4.48. But more predictively, he’s been barely above replacement level and will struggle to reach 1 fWAR if he keeps up this pace.
For some reason, Liberatore’s breaking pitches aren’t working out at all. Mix that with a fastball that is sub 95 mph, and you’re left with a good off-speed pitch. Perhaps his main problem is that he’s getting hit HARD. I get the feeling Liberatore needs to match McGreevy’s walk rate to be more effective. That and he needs to get his curve working better because it’s a good pitch.
Final verdict: Liberatore needs to find an identity, a strength. And I thought that was his breaking pitches. Guess not? Hopefully his season will get better as it goes along. As it stands now, he’s another guy only going 5 innings deep, but not as good as Pallante.
SP#6: Kyle Leahy by all reports, Leahy is still in the rotation, but his season hasn’t really worked out so far. Definitely a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, or as many think, more of a middle-innings guy. What will happen with Leahy I am not sure, I could see them continue to stretch him out as a starter with the goal of upping his innings for next year. Or I could just as easily see them abandon the starting rotation experiment.
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4.42 ERA is fine for back end of rotation, but the ERA / xERA difference is +2.13!
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xFIP more encouraging, showing signs of back of rotation.
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Leahy doesn’t even usually go 5 IP, which has led some fans to label him as an opener for a piggyback pitcher.
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could end up a swingman or in his old role from last season in the not too distant future.
Final verdict: I would have to say the verdict is still out on this one.
Downside: missing out on a stabilizing force bridging the rotation to the bullpen, but Graceffo appears to be handling that ok.
Bullpen
The bullpen, despite all its blemishes, warts, and weaknesses, has been good enough to get us to where we are now at 36-28 after a 5 game winning streak! The Cardinals bullpen is middle of the pack by ERA at 4.09, are one of the worst teams by xERA at 4.72, are middle of the pack by both FIP stats, so the bullpen is an upgrade away from a stength.
Pitching Awards
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ERA King: Gordon Graceffo 1.67 ERA
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xERA Master: Ryne Stanek 3.88 xERA
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FIP Ruler: Riley O’Brien 2.67 FIP
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K guys: Fernandez, Stanek, Dobbins, O’Brien, Romero
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Innings Eater: Michael McGreevy with over 70 IP
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Wild BB Award: Ryne Stanek 15% BB rate (Dobbins, Fernandez and Svanson also over 11%)
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Top Tier xFIP: Fernandez, Dobbins, O’Brien, and Romero
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Bullpen LOBster Kings: Graceffo and Soriano lead the team in left on base %, except for Dobbins who gets a more than honorable mention for leaving every man on base so far!
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Bullpen GB Assassins: Riley O’Brien, Ryan Fernandez, Justin Bruihl, and Hunter Dobbins all have a GB% of 50% or more out of the bullpen
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Bullpen usage: mostly Graceffo, O’Brien, Romero, and Bruihl
The music returns…
1990: Heavy Metal
The delayed chapter to my 1990 post, a couple weeks ago. This focusing on a TON OF HEAVY METAL as the genre started gaining a TON of steam by 1990! You will find some tried and true classics but mostly a lot of hidden gems on this list…
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Megadeth – ‘Rust In Peace’ the only Megadeth album I truly care about. One of the very best heavy metal albums of all time.. .and yes Dave Mustaine, you outdid any Metallica album with Rust In Peace. Holy smokes! A top tier genre classic. All time great metal album.
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Nocturnus – ‘The Key’ it is difficult to think of an album in any genre more ahead of its time than this one. Some form of futuristic sci fi death metal from a parallel dimension. Influential of several early extreme metal genres, integrating atmospheric and synthesized keyboards into the bands sound giving it a more cinematic feel than another other band in the genre at that time.
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Slayer – ‘Seasons In The Abyss’ perhaps one of the most stoner-y cooked up album titles of all time, this album sounds super serious and among Slayer’s best and most dark albums. What I’m saying is, this might very well be Slayer at their heaviest. And the song “War Ensemble” made me a fan of the band in high sch9ol. This album helped define the sound of 1990 with Rick Rubin at the producer’s helm.
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Exhorder – ‘Slaughter In The Vatican’ New Orleans band that in part inspired Pantera to shift their sound away from their hair metal roots with hyper fast speed metal that could be seen as hardcore thrash or groove metal. Soulful vocals met a band with ultra-heavy, riff-laden guitars and drum tempos all over the map, creating a new sound. Pantera would branch out from this groove metal sound but Exhorder would remain dedicated to it for decades to come.
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Pantera – ‘Cowboys From Hell’ Pantera took the idea of thrashy groove metal into an extremely catchy direction, which embarked upon a huge arena metal sound. The band would become huge in the years following, but Cowboys From Hell was the album that put the band on the map and on Headbanger’s Ball.
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Atrocity – ‘Hallucinations’ classic death metal from Germany, the album made a big impression on me upon first listen. Sounds like a classic to me! Definitive early death metal.
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Morbid Saint – ‘Spectrum of Death’ on the list primarily for its rawness, ferocity, and heavy metal onslaught, I found this album about 5 years ago and I am very glad every time I hear it. Heavy metal insanity!
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Aggressor – ‘Never-Ending Destiny’ an insane assault featuring some of the tightest heavy metal you’ll ever hear! Fast and thrashy death metal classic.
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Death – ‘Spiritual Healing’ not my favorite album by early death metal originators, but it is still quite, quite good, and not to be ignored.
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Psychotic Waltz – ‘A Social Grace’ this one was an obscure find! I would describe this as another metal band way ahead of their time, touching upon art rock and the forming grunge movement, along with a theatrical progressive metal sound all their own.
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Eyehategod – ‘In The Name of Suffering’ a big wall of deep south heat up in your face with a crazy man from New Orleans screaming at you about the woes of the world while a hardcore punk drummer plays accompaniment.
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Nightmare – ‘Give Notice of Nightmare’ Nightmare announce their arrival with 20 minutes of on-fire punk rock and grindcore that burns the whole barn down in record time!
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Merciless – ‘The Awakening’ even more must hear early, classic death metal (from Sweden!)
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Atheist – ‘Piece of Time’ at the forefront of both progressive metal and technical death metal
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Winter – ‘Into Darkness’ somewhere at the cusp of doom, early death metal, and early sludge punk! Ultra dark and heavy sounds.
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Napalm Death – ‘Harmony Corruption’ early Napalm Death! you can’t go wrong… and one of their better releases. I thought it was very catchy for how it sounds hahahaha.
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Carnage – ‘Dark Recollections’ really well produced, early extreme death metal! I’m surprised I had never heard of these guys before. Another obscurity unearthed!
Ok, thanks for reading my rundown of the St Louis Cardinals in 2026 so far, and hope you enjoyed my list of heavy metal from 1990 if you’re into that sort of thing.
The Cardinals are 36-28 now, 4.5 games behind the Brewers. It’s Pallante vs Warren tonight in NY. Austin Warren has been quite good so far, but he hasn’t pitched a lot yet. Is it a bullpen game? Recent promotion?
Excelsior!
