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Analysis: The 14 minutes that changed the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs

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Analysis: The 14 minutes that changed the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs

At the most pivotal time of the season, the eight drivers left fighting for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship rose to the occasion Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Six of the eight postseason contenders combined to lead 250 of the 267 laps in Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400, the middle race of the Round of 8. A race-high 97 of those circuits were led by race winner Tyler Reddick. Ryan Blaney (47) and Chase Elliott (81) entered in must-win positions and combined to lead nearly 48% of all the laps in Sunday’s 400-miler.

But in the end, the entire outlook of the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs was upended in a matter of 14 consequential minutes on a late afternoon just outside South Beach. From Reddick’s final pit stop to the race’s final restart, go inside how the postseason picture changed so quickly at Homestead-Miami:

MORE: Race results | Current Cup standings

All times Eastern.

5:31 p.m.

After stretching his fuel supply to its bitter end, Tyler Reddick hits pit road from the lead with 15 laps remaining to conclude Lap 252. The No. 45 Toyota of 23XI Racing was running fifth, roughly 3.5 seconds behind then-leader Ryan Blaney when the final round of green-flag pit stops began with 50 laps remaining. Crew chief Billy Scott determined staying out would be the team’s best chance to leap-frog the other playoff drivers ahead of them and score the ultimate walk-off win.

“Man, bed‘s made here,” Scott radioed to Reddick. “Only chance is to get a yellow somewhere between here and when we run out of gas.”

WATCH: Scott explains doing ‘something different’

That caution didn’t come before Reddick’s fuel ran low and necessitated a trip to pit lane with 15 to go. Upon exiting pit road, Reddick merges onto the track just behind second-place-runner Kyle Larson but storms past both Larson and Blaney off Turn 4 to remain on the lead lap.

Playoff impact: With 15 laps left and four fresh tires, Reddick needed one last caution — and fast — otherwise, the No. 45 team would have been far below the elimination line heading to Martinsville Speedway.

5:33 p.m.

Cue the critical caution. In a fierce battle for the lead at Lap 255, Larson charges three-wide through the middle of Blaney and the lapped car of Austin Dillon entering Turn 3. Larson’s lunge upsets the handling of his No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet and sends him for a long slide through Turns 3 and 4. The 2021 Cup champion ultimately lost just one position to Denny Hamlin through the process, but a yellow flag in the closing stages means a late-race restart is inbound.

Playoff impact: Either Blaney or Larson seemed destined to lock themselves into the Championship 4 with a victory if the caution hadn’t come out. At the time of caution, Larson sat three points above the elimination line. Instead, the yellow saves Reddick, who maintains his lead-lap position and can capitalize on those who must pit again under the caution.

MORE: Larson battles through Homestead hindrances

5:36 p.m.

The last pit stops of the day prove pivotal. Ryan Blaney maintains the lead off pit road and Hamlin secures second. Chase Elliott gains three spots to third ahead of Alex Bowman (gained four spots), William Byron (even), Christopher Bell (lost two), AJ Allmendinger (even), Carson Hocevar (gained two), Kyle Larson (lost six) and Chase Briscoe (gained three). Larson pits with the leaders and restarts inside the top 10, but lost multiple spots because the team needed to fix the diffuser flap beneath the rear of the car after it deployed mid-spin.

Because he just pitted prior to the yellow flag, Reddick stays out to inherit the lead with just two green-flag laps on his tires. Reddick chooses the top lane for the restart with Blaney choosing the front row alongside him. Hamlin, Bowman, Bell and Hocevar line up behind Reddick; Elliott, Byron, Allmendinger and Larson behind Blaney.

Playoff impact: Reddick is suddenly thrust into the catbird seat and will control the restart after running 25th before the yellow. Had Reddick been the first car one lap down to receive the free pass, he would have had to restart in the rear instead. Blaney, Hamlin and Elliott are now on even footing with sights set on disposing of Reddick quickly after the restart.

Ryan Blaney makes a pit stop during a NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead.

Ryan Blaney makes a pit stop during a NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead.

5:41 p.m.

The green flag flies at Lap 261 to trigger seven laps remaining. Blaney appears to stumble on the restart, allowing Elliott to put Blaney three-wide for second with Hamlin up high. Through Turns 1 and 2, Hamlin rips the high line and momentarily goes four-wide with Reddick, Blaney and Elliott to take the lead down the backstretch.

Despite the frontstretch bobble, Blaney slots back to second place on the back-straight while Elliott charges to third. With six to go, Blaney charges back to Hamlin’s left, attempting to retake the lead but to no avail. Reddick, however, uses the high line off Turn 2 to clear Elliott for third. Further back, Larson fades out of the top 10.

Playoff impact: Hamlin’s 22-race winless streak finally has an end in sight. After a frustrating season from the midpoint forward, Hamlin now leads in the late stages with a chance to lock his name into the Championship 4 bracket for the first time since 2021. Blaney, Reddick and Elliott all sit beneath the elimination line as Hamlin leads.

5:44 p.m.

With two laps left remaining, Blaney uses a huge launch off the high side of Turn 2 to storm to Hamlin’s left down the back straightaway. The No. 12 Team Penske Ford powers into Turn 3 using the middle groove and drifts high to defend against Hamlin on exit, leading to the white flag.

Playoff impact: The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion now has his chance to charge back into the Championship 4 with 1.5 miles left in front of him. With Blaney out front, Hamlin second and Reddick third, Hamlin drops to 17 points beneath the elimination line with Reddick 18 points out.

5:45 p.m.

White flag. Final lap. Reddick dives to the bottom of Turns 1 and 2 and bolts past Hamlin, co-owner of the very team Reddick races for. The three leaders take separate lines through the first set of corners — Blaney middle, Hamlin top and Reddick bottom. Reddick’s blast to the low line rockets him past Hamlin, heading down the backstretch.

One set of corners left. Blaney opts for the middle again, just like he did the lap prior on Hamlin. But this time, Reddick rips into the corner on the high line with far more speed. Despite two more laps on his tires, Reddick finds just enough grip around the wall to soar past Blaney. The checkered flag waves. Reddick is the winner over Blaney, Hamlin, Bell and Elliott.

WATCH: See incredible final lap | Blaney: ‘Won’t be sad about it’

Playoff impact: Tyler Reddick collects his sixth win in two seasons for 23XI Racing and his first career berth into the Championship 4. Despite top-five finishes for each, Hamlin, Blaney and Elliott leave Homestead beneath the elimination line. Hamlin is 18 points out, with Blaney down 38 markers and Elliott 43. Larson ultimately finishes 13th — at least 11 spots worse than he sat 12 minutes prior. Instead of leaving three points above the elimination line, Larson exits seven points beneath it heading to Martinsville. With Reddick and Las Vegas winner Joey Logano locked into the Championship 4, Sunday’s fourth-place finisher Bell sits 29 points to the good, with sixth-place finisher William Byron seven points above.

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