Arizona is halfway through its second season in the Big 12, winning the first nine conference games as part of a school-record 22-0 start. That’s helped the Wildcats hold the top spot in the AP poll since early December, the last few weeks being a unanimous No. 1.
The UA is No. 1 in the NET ranking, with nine Quad 1 wins on its resume including against six ranked opponents. Everything’s coming up Wilbur.
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But we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Saturday’s 87-74 win at ASU, which gave Arizona its best start in school history, is now followed by a short hiatus. The Wildcats are off until next Saturday when they host Oklahoma State to start the second half of the Big 12 slate.
“I’m looking forward to having a little break in our schedule, but I’m also cognizant that we got to keep getting better, and got to make sure we stay sharp and have great rhythm,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said. “We got a tough couple games coming up.”
Tough is massively underselling it.
The Cowboys (15-6, 3-5) are the second-worst team left on the slate in terms of NET ranking (66), behind the regular season finale March 7 at No. 84 Colorado (13-9, 3-6). In between is an absolute gauntlet, one that seems impossible to get through unscathed but will also show just how high the ceiling is for the Wildcats.
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Arizona has six remaining games against ranked opponents, including four straight after hosting OSU. The last nine contests currently feature seven consecutive Quad 1 foes, starting Feb. 9 at Kansas (16-5, 6-2). The Jayhawks have won five in a row, most recently over BYU, and feature another potential No. 1 NBA Draft pick in guard Darryn Peterson.
That’s followed by home games against Texas Tech (16-5, 6-2) and BYU (17-4, 5-3), then a trip to Houston (19-2, 7-1). After visiting Baylor (12-9, 2-7) on Feb. 24 the Wildcats are back at McKale for their final two games against Kansas and Iowa State (19-2, 6-2).
To put in perspective how backloaded the Big 12 schedule is for Arizona, its first eight opponents (nine games) are a combined 26-44 in league play, with only two currently from the top half of the league. The remaining eight foes are 39-28 including all four teams that are within two games of the Wildcats in the loss column.
KenPom projects the UA to lose two games before the regular season ends, and by win probability the most likely ones are at Kansas (59 percent) and Houston (51 percent). The Wildcats have been given at least a 73 percent chance to win every other remaining contest, including 73 percent against Iowa State.
