Not much has gone wrong for the North Carolina Tar Heels in recent weeks, but that could quickly turn on a moment’s notice, depending on Matt Able’s imminent decision.
However, Friday further confirmed the Tar Heels’ road to the top of the ACC will be a grueling challenge, as John Blackwell officially withdrew from the NBA Draft and will play his senior season with the Duke Blue Devils.
While Blackwell was expected to return for his senior season, Tar Heel fans were holding onto a glimmer of hope that the 6-foot-3, 202-pound guard could ditch Duke for the upcoming draft. Nevertheless, that will not be the case, and here is a deeper look into why this applies even more pressure on North Carolina heading into next season.
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Able’s Decision Becomes Even More Crucial
Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) brings the ball up the court in the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
The North Carolina State transfer’s decision whether to stay in the draft or see out his move to North Carolina is obviously the most important development for the coaching staff to keep tabs on. However, this news magnifies the importance of the Tar Heels retaining Able for at least the 2026-27 college basketball season.
Duke would have been elite regardless of whether Blackwell departed for the draft. That being said, the Wisconsin transfer is one of the best scorers in the nation, averaging 19.2 points per game while shooting 43.0 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from three-point range. Keeping Able in the equation will counter that, although North Carolina still has an uphill battle to compete for the ACC title.
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Difficult Task in ACC
Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard John Blackwell (25) drives against High Point Panthers guard Conrad Martinez (9) during the second half of a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Retaining Blackwell, paired with the No. 1 2026 recruiting class in the country, will prove to be overwhelming for several teams, including the Tar Heels, who need to get past the Blue Devils if they want to challenge for the ACC.
In 2025, Duke only lost one game in conference play – against North Carolina – and it’s safe to say that the roster has only improved since the Elite Eight defeat against the Connecticut Huskies. The Blue Devils may have lost Cameron Boozer to the draft, but they retained multiple key rotational players while adding several marquee players from the transfer portal and recruiting class.
Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer looks on against the UConn Huskies in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Duke is the favorite in the conference and could run away with the regular season title and conference tournament championship once again next season. North Carolina will do everything possible to prevent that from happening, but head coach Michael Malone and his players will be tasked with a nearly impossible feat in that regard.
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The Tar Heels already had a narrow path to winning the ACC, and you can argue it officially closed on Friday.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/unc as Bad News Hits UNC Regarding an ACC Rival.
