Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring following a four-year retirement to challenge Mario Barrios for his WBC welterweight title at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday (Amazon Prime Video PPV, PPV.com, 8 p.m. ET).
Pacquiao, 46, is also looking to break his own record as the oldest boxer to win a welterweight title. He previously won it at 40 with a split-decision victory over Keith Thurman in 2019.
In his last outing, in 2021, Pacquiao looked slow and overmatched against Yordenis Ugas. Pacquiao lost a unanimous decision and was outlanded by Ugas in total punches (151-130), jabs (50-42) and power punches (101-88).
In the co-main event, Sebastian Fundora defends his WBC and WBO junior middleweight titles in a rematch against Tim Tszyu. Fundora, who enters the fight as the underdog despite being the champ, scored an upset against Tszyu in March 2024 with a split-decision victory (116-112, 115-113 and 112-116).
In that first fight, Tszyu won the first two rounds on all three judges’ scorecards but suffered a cut over his hairline in Round 2 that never stopped bleeding and changed the direction of the fight.
Earlier on Saturday, at London’s Wembley Stadium, Oleksandr Usyk, the WBC, WBO and WBA champion, will try to reclaim his undisputed heavyweight champion status in a rematch against IBF titleholder Daniel Dubois.
Usyk defeated Dubois by ninth-round KO in August 2023. There was controversy in Round 5, when Dubois seemed to land a legal body shot that sent Usyk to the canvas, but referee Luis Pabon ruled it as a low blow and gave Usyk time to recover.
ESPN betting expert Ian Parker breaks down these fights and offers betting guidance.
Odds accurate as of Thursday. All odds by ESPN BET.
Mario Barrios (-275) vs. Manny Pacquiao (+210)
The return of Pacquiao, a fan favorite and boxing’s only eight-division champion, should be an interesting one. Pacquiao as the underdog is always intriguing, but with his age and time away from the ring potentially being a factor in a 12-round fight, taking him on the moneyline feels like an unnecessary donation. Pacquiao will probably come into this fight in shape, and I believe he will still have his durability, so betting the fight going to a decision makes the most sense. With the over 10.5 rounds set at -135, I’m taking the over, as I believe Pacquiao will hang in there and make this fight competitive from bell to bell.
Sebastian Fundora (+135) vs. Tim Tszyu (-165)
Fundora puts his WBC on the line in a rematch with Tszyu that is interesting from a stylistic perspective. Fundora stands 6-foot-5, extremely tall for this weight class, but enters the fight as a +135 underdog. Fundora is used to training with shorter fighters, since most boxers in that division are not as tall as he is. However, for Tszyu, having to change up preparation for a very tall opponent is quite the task. But what Tszyu may lack in preparation for the height difference, he makes up for in skill. He is unpredictable with looping punches that his opponents don’t see coming. I expect this fight to be a back-and-forth battle from start to finish.
Two plays that I think carry the most value:
1. I would take the over 10.5 rounds. It is very fairly priced at -165, and I don’t see either fighter getting the finish.
2. The other play is Tszyu by decision at +225. He has the power to KO anyone, but to land that massive punch on someone almost a foot taller just doesn’t seem likely.
1:02
Oleksandr Usyk drops Daniel Dubois to retain titles
Oleksandr Usyk knocks Daniel Dubois down a second time to finally finish the fight and retain his belts.
Oleksandr Usyk (-340) vs. Daniel Dubois (+260)
It should be no surprise that Usyk is the 3-1 favorite after back-to-back wins over Tyson Fury. Usyk has shown time and time again that not only is he a complete fighter, but he continues to get better. Dubois has power, but if he isn’t able to hurt Usyk early, the longer the fight goes, the better it is for the unified champ. I don’t see Dubois being able to outbox or outclass Usyk in this fight. If you want to take Usyk on the moneyline, make him the anchor of your play and let him cash that ticket for you. Otherwise, Usyk by decision at +185 has some value as well.
