The teams at the top of the conference standings started to flex their muscles this week, with the top five teams in this week’s bracketology update combining for a 10-0 week, including eight wins by double-digit margins. With a lot of the top teams in the conference playing teams on the opposite end of the standings, most of the action came down to the bubble teams facing off in matchups that will become important factors in deciding NCAA Tournament bids at the end of the season.
Michigan – No. 1 Seed (No. 2 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 1 Seed (No. 3 overall)
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The Wolverines traveled to the Pacific Northwest, looking to avenge their home loss to Wisconsin last weekend. Michigan was able to do just that, beating Washington 82-72 to kick off the road trip, then beating a short-handed Oregon team 81-71 over the weekend. While neither of those wins were as comfortable as most of Michigan’s wins have been to start the season, the Wolverines move ahead of Iowa State (who lost twice this week) for the No. 2 overall seed. They will return home to play Indiana and Ohio State this week.
Purdue – No. 1 Seed (No. 4 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 5 overall)
The Boilermakers keep on winning, even if the margin of victory isn’t exactly what people would expect. Purdue beat Iowa 79-72 at home before taking the show on the road. The Boilermakers grinded out a 69-64 win on the road against USC, and will finish up their road trip with a matchup against UCLA tomorrow. If Purdue can win that game, it will set up a clash with Illinois at home over the weekend that could have major implications on the Big Ten title race at the end of the season.
Nebraska – No. 2 Seed (No. 6 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
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The Cornhuskers demolished both teams on their schedule this week, holding each of their opponents to under 60 points while scoring at a high clip themselves. Nebraska defeated Oregon 90-55 at home before taking the show on the road to Evanston. The Cornhuskers were only up by five points at the half against Northwestern, but scored 43 second-half points to win 77-58 on the road. Nebraska’s large margin of victory in its two games this week went a long way to help improve the only weak points on its resume (predictive metrics swayed heavily by margin of victory), allowing the ‘Huskers to rise one spot and join what is essentially (at least in my mind) a three-team tie for the final one seed between Purdue, UConn and Nebraska.
Illinois – No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
The Fighting Illini continued their strong stretch of conference play by putting up another two wins this week. Illinois defeated in-state rival Northwestern 79-68 on the road, then returned home to beat Minnesota 77-67. The Illini are up to No. 6 in KenPom, which would be their highest ranking since finishing the year ranked No. 4 in the 2020-21 season. In fact, while Illinois isn’t as high as the 2020-21 team by rankings, the current Illini team has the highest adjusted efficiency margin (+30.45) on KenPom since the 2004-05 team that went 37-2 and reached the national championship game.
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Michigan State – No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
The Spartans defeated Indiana 81-60 at home to start the week. A commanding victory over a middle-of-the-pack team in the B1G was a great confidence boost for Michigan State to carry that momentum into a West Coast swing. The Spartans kept it rolling against Washington, winning 80-63 to kick off their road trip. Michigan State will finish the road trip against Oregon, then return home to face Maryland over the weekend. The Spartans remain one of the many protected seed contenders in the B1G and shouldn’t lose a game until a clash with Michigan at the end of January.
Iowa – No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 Seed (No. 31 overall)
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The Hawkeyes played much better over the course of this week than they had to begin January. Iowa couldn’t quite put together an undefeated week, but the Hawkeyes’ loss was just a seven-point loss on the road against Purdue. Iowa actually led the game for a good portion of the second half, and even though the Boilermakers won 79-72, the Hawkeyes showed some positive signs of competing as an underdog for the first time in a while. Iowa stayed on the road later in the week, where it defeated Indiana 74-57 at Assembly Hall. Both of those teams were right on the fence of the bubble heading into that game, and the Hawkeyes’ win keeps them just on the right side of that fence for now.
Wisconsin – No. 9 Seed (No. 35 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 37 overall)
The Badgers continued to roll through January with two more conference wins. Wisconsin was deep in a rivalry battle on the road against Minnesota, but thanks to John Blackwell’s buzzer-beater, the Badgers won 78-75 after a crazy finish. Wisconsin returned home to beat Rutgers 96-87, and is now looking a lot more like the team that was ranked No. 24 in the AP preseason poll. Regardless, the Badgers have moved away from the bubble and closer to a spot that indicates being safely in the NCAA Tournament field as we cross the midway point of the season.
USC – No. 10 Seed (No. 38 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 38 overall, Last Four Byes)
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The Trojans started to stabilize with an overtime win against Minnesota, and this week was much closer to the version of USC basketball that started the season 12-1 than the team that lost to Michigan and Michigan State by a combined total of 59 points. The Trojans used four threes and 20 points by Jordan Marsh to beat Maryland 88-71. USC lost 69-64 to Purdue in its second game of the week, but the Trojans keeping this game close was a good indication that they can compete with the more dominant teams in the conference when they face them later in the season.
Ohio State – No. 10 Seed (No. 39 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
The Buckeyes got an extended period of rest after a West Coast trip, and played one game this week: a bubble battle at home against UCLA. Ohio State won that clash 86-74, powered by a 28-point game by John Mobley Jr. The Buckeyes are still on the bubble, although if Ohio State can do what Wisconsin did and beat Michigan on the road this week, the Buckeyes will absolutely move off the bubble and into a more comfortable position within the projected field.
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Indiana – No. 11 Seed (No. 43 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)
The Hoosiers have not looked the part of an NCAA Tournament team since the conference season kicked into high gear. Indiana lost 81-60 to Michigan State on the road, then fell 74-57 at home against Iowa. While both of those games being losses isn’t entirely surprising, the Hoosiers can’t sustain repeated blowout losses. Things don’t get any easier for Indiana, as the next game on the schedule is a visit to face Michigan on the road, and a rivalry matchup with Purdue looms towards the end of the month as well.
UCLA – First Four Out
Previous seeding: First Four Out
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UCLA continued to follow its relatively pedestrian pattern this season of winning games it should win and losing games it should lose. The Bruins went on a road trip and beat Penn State 71-60, but couldn’t pull off the upset on the road against Ohio State, falling 86-74 in that game. Trent Perry scored 30 points in the game against Penn State, and Tyler Bilodeau scored 30 points in the matchup with the Buckeyes. UCLA needs scoring outputs like that from unlikely sources, at least while Donovan Dent continues to struggle and Skyy Clark remains out with a hamstring injury. The Bruins return home this week to play Purdue and Northwestern, and a 2-0 week would definitely put them back into the NCAA Tournament picture.
Washington – In Consideration
Previous seeding: In Consideration
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The Huskies played solidly this week, but couldn’t turn that level of play into any wins. Washington struggled to defend the Michigan frontcourt with Hannes Steinbach in foul trouble, and the Huskies fell 82-72 to Michigan. Washington couldn’t solve the Michigan State defense over the weekend, losing 80-63 at home to the Spartans, while shooting 3-for-19 from the three-point line. Things won’t get any easier this week as the Huskies take on Nebraska on the road in their next game.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Golden Gophers are starting to look like the team that is clearly on the wrong side of the bubble with the best chance to make a late-season run worthy of NCAA Tournament consideration. Even though Minnesota lost to Wisconsin 78-75 at home and lost 77-67 to Illinois on the road, the Gophers have been very competitive in recent weeks, and the upset win against Iowa proved that Minnesota can beat teams in the top half of the conference. The Golden Gophers will have two more opportunities for huge wins as an underdog this week, as they go on the road to play Ohio State and return home to face Nebraska.
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Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Wildcats are still winless in conference play after another week of games. Northwestern stayed close in a 79-68 loss to No. 13 Illinois, but couldn’t stay within striking distance of No. 8 Nebraska, losing 77-58 at home. The ‘Cats’ next opportunities to get on the board in conference play will be two more tough games during a West Coast trip to UCLA and USC this week, and any hopes of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament have completely dissipated.
Oregon – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Ducks had a tough assignment this week, taking on Nebraska on the road before returning home to play Michigan. To make matters worse, Oregon was missing Jackson Shelstad in both games, and Nate Bittle missed the Michigan game. The Ducks fell 90-55 to Nebraska, but kept it close in an eventual 81-71 loss to Michigan at home. Oregon will look for its next conference win when it takes on Michigan State at home.
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Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Nittany Lions remained winless in conference play this week. Penn State lost 71-60 at home to UCLA, before getting eviscerated by David Coit and Maryland 96-73 on the road. The Nittany Lions trailed 56-26 at halftime against the Terrapins in what was a disappointing performance considering how well Penn State played two weeks ago to keep it close against Michigan and Purdue. The Nittany Lions’ next opportunities to win a conference game will be against Wisconsin at home and Ohio State on the road.
Maryland – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Terrapins fell 88-71 in their first game of the week against USC, but that game wasn’t the biggest story of the week. Maryland quickly erased the loss to the Trojans with a 96-73 win against Penn State to claim its first conference victory this season. The story of that game was David Coit, who went off, tying two program records with nine three-pointers made and 43 points in the game. Coit now has three 30-point games in conference play (and his second 40-point game this season) to complement his 41-point game against Mount St. Mary’s earlier this season.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
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The Scarlet Knights had a ton of rest this week, getting five full days off before facing Wisconsin on the road on Saturday. Rutgers scored 58 points in the second half, but that offensive outburst wasn’t enough to overcome a 22-point halftime deficit, and the Badgers won 96-87. The Scarlet Knights will stay on the road to take on Iowa before returning home to face Indiana at the end of the week.
