There is no bigger presence in college football analytics than Bill Connelly and his SP+ ratings, and last week Bill produced his 2025 Big Ten season preview. While Bill is a sharp analyst with plenty of valuable insights and opinions, our focus today will be on the data itself and what that might mean for the Big Ten as a whole, as well as the Michigan Wolverines.
This is a strong conference
The preseason projections have four Big Ten programs in the top 10: Ohio State (No. 1), Penn State (3), Oregon (7)…and Michigan at No. 10. This is no surprise — at least for the top three — given last season, and both Illinois (19) and Indiana (23) land in the top 25 as well. SP+ has always been a little more complimentary to the conference than the narrative-based media, though its reputation is starting to catch up to the numbers.
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Obviously, the SEC remains strong, also claiming four of the top 10 teams and nearly half (12) of the top 25, but there is reason to believe times are changing, with NIL, the transfer portal, an expanded playoff, and conference realignment all contributing factors. Given that the Big Ten has won back-to-back national championships (with a real shot at taking a third this year), there is a true debate as to which conference is now on top of the sport.
Meaty middle
Following the top 25, and Iowa at 28, comes an interesting cluster of Big Ten teams. Michigan will see all four of Nebraska (34th), Wisconsin (37th), USC (30th), and Washington (39th) consecutively to kick off conference play, and this could very well determine the success of the Wolverines this season.
Additionally, this is the area that is likely to decide the quality of the Big Ten. Indiana made a splash last year, and Illinois is getting plenty of attention, but if a couple of these teams in the 30s of the preseason projections can jump up into the top 25 (and even College Football Playoff contention), suddenly the middle of the conference becomes an expanded group of legit competitors. This cohort has tons of history, but varying recent success; getting some name brands back on track is exactly what the Big Ten is hoping to see.
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Bounce back incoming?
Turning the lens back internally, it was a little surprising to see SP+ love Michigan so much after last year’s No. 26 finish. As expected, the top-10 ranking is buoyed by an elite defense (No. 3 nationally) with hopes of a competent offense that comes in 32nd in the projections. The metrics give the Wolverines a 12 percent chance at a conference title, with an average record of 9.8-2.2.
SP+ agrees with the general talking points on Michigan this offseason. The defense projects to stay elite, even despite all of the departures, and that should be enough to keep the team in most games. There is not a ton that Bryce Underwood and the offense need to do to outpace last year’s production, and as long as the Jordan Marshall-Justice Haynes duo does not completely flop, the floor is high enough to justify the ranking.
No SOS call needed
While the metrics like the team in a vacuum, the Wolverines will also benefit from a reasonable schedule, with 2025’s strength of schedule just 38th nationally after a top-10 gauntlet last season. Michigan avoids the clear second- and third-best teams in the conference, facing just one of the top four programs, while getting each of the bottom three (Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue), all late in the season.
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The aforementioned opening stretch of conference play is full of decent opponents, but this is more of a quantity than quality challenge. If Michigan can survive at Oklahoma (16th) and avoid tripping up more than once before The Game, then a CFP berth should be the expectation. Maybe this feels bold after last year’s struggles, but SP+ believes this is a top-10 squad.
