About a month from Selection Sunday, we have a clearer idea of who will be ranked at the top of the regions in the women’s NCAA tournament.
Before all the on-court chaos Sunday, the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee’s top 16 teams – the top four seeds in each of the four regions – were revealed. These rankings carried particular significance coming off a week that saw USC hand rival UCLA its first loss behind 38 points and eight blocks from JuJu Watkins, potentially the best game of the women’s college basketball season.
How do things stack up now that we know more about what the committee thinks? Read on to find out.
No. 3 UCLA Bruins
Projected seed: 1
Committee Top 16 seed (and overall ranking): 1 (1)
This week’s schedule: vs. Illinois Thu., at Iowa Sun. (Peacock)
The undefeated dream is over, but the committee still views the Bruins as the best team in the country. UCLA got back on track with a solid home win over a ranked Michigan State team Sunday. If a road rivalry loss that only came because of an unreal individual performance is the only blemish on your record, things are going quite well.
No. 4 USC Trojans
Projected seed: 2
Committee Top 16 seed (and overall ranking): 2 (5)
This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan State Wed. (Peacock), vs. Illinois Sun.
The Trojans may have beaten UCLA, but their resume – and level of consistency – still lags slightly behind their crosstown rivals. Watkins carried them to that win against the Bruins, but USC struggled with Washington Sunday until she got some help from her supporting cast. It did not help USC when UConn, another projected 2-seed, scored an even more impressive win with an 87-58 blowout over South Carolina on the road Sunday.
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected seed: 4
Committee Top 16 seed (and overall ranking): 4 (14)
This week’s schedule: at Indiana Thu. (Peacock), vs. Purdue Sun.
The committee’s ranking seemed to reflect the shakiness that Ohio State has exhibited recently. Two double-digit losses in L.A. and home overtime wins over Minnesota and Iowa have taken some of the sheen off the Buckeyes. A road test at Indiana this week will be huge for Ohio State’s confidence.
No. 21 Maryland Terrapins
Projected seed: 5
This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan Mon., at Northwestern Thu.
Losing by 20 at home to Nebraska may indicate more about the Cornhuskers than the Terrapins, because that result came out of nowhere. Still, it’s not a great look to lose like that to an unranked team this late in the season, and three of Maryland’s final four games come against teams that are better or essentially equal to the Huskers in terms of NET Ranking.
No. 22 Michigan State Spartans
Projected seed: 5
This week’s schedule: at USC Wed. (Peacock), vs. Indiana Sun.
The Spartans had the opportunity to jump into that top 16 conversation, but they have alternated wins and losses in their last six games. Over that period, they split their two games against Michigan, beat lowly teams in Northwestern and Wisconsin and lost to the other good teams (Oregon and UCLA). They finish the L.A. road trip against the Trojans Wednesday.
Michigan Wolverines
Projected seed: 7
This week’s schedule: at Maryland Mon., vs. Penn State Sat.
The Wolverines stayed the course by beating Indiana by three at home on Wednesday. They have now had four days to prepare for a litmus test road game against the Terrapins. Win that game in enemy territory, and Michigan will have to be taken more seriously. Perhaps it already should be – Michigan is the fifth-best Big Ten team by NET Ranking.
No. 25 Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected seed: 8
This week’s schedule: at UCLA Thu., at USC Sun.
Illinois’s win streak is up to eight, and it is holding steady on the edge of the rankings. The tournament seeding projection is not quite as favorable because the committee tends to place a lot of value in strength of schedule, and the Illini have had the Big Ten’s second-easiest path to this point. That obviously changes this week.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected seed: 9
This week’s schedule: at Ohio State Mon., vs. UCLA Sun. (Peacock)
The Hawkeyes are rounding into form at the right time, pushing their win streak to six with victories over Nebraska and Rutgers last week. The win over USC showed Iowa can beat elite teams, and they will have the opportunity to do so again with matchups against the Buckeyes and Bruins this week.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected seed: 9
This week’s schedule: at Purdue Wed.
The Golden Gophers have lost five of their last six, but Thursday’s defeat to Ohio State was as good of a loss as you will see this year. On the road against a top-10 team, Minnesota stormed back in the final minutes to force the game into overtime and only lost by three. This is a resilient group, and the schedule lightens up over the final three.
Indiana Hoosiers
Projected seed: 10
This week’s schedule: vs. Ohio State Thu. (Peacock), at Michigan State Sun.
A win against Ohio State, Michigan State and/or Maryland in the next three would go a long way for a Hoosiers team looking to cement its place in the field. Indiana might not be hurt by losses in any of those games, but it still lacks a signature win this season (aside from winning at Iowa on Jan. 12, perhaps).
Oregon Ducks
Projected seed: 10
This week’s schedule: at Nebraska Wed., vs. Rutgers Sun.
After losing three straight to Michigan, Maryland and UCLA, the Ducks got some much-needed good fortune with a home win over Washington and a helpful road victory over Minnesota. Oregon still has road tests against Nebraska and Washington among its final three games which will ultimately determine where it ends up.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected seed: 11
This week’s schedule: vs. Oregon Wed., vs. Washington Sun.
Home games against teams traveling from the West Coast are great opportunities for the Cornhuskers to add to their resume. That 20-point road shellacking of Maryland was actually an oddity amid a skid that has seen four losses in their last five games. It will take a final push for Nebraska to feel great about its tournament chances.
Washington Huskies
Projected seed: First Four Out
This week’s schedule: vs. Rutgers Thu., at Nebraska Sun.
The Huskies were eyeing a major upset for much of Sunday’s contest against the Trojans, but USC turned on the gas in the final minutes. It was a tough pill to swallow coming off a one-point loss to Oregon earlier in the week. With road bouts against Nebraska and Minnesota looming before finishing the season with a home rematch against Oregon, Washington will have to play fantastic basketball.
