The Chicago Blackhawks have some of the worst defense pairings in the NHL in terms of expected goals % (xG%). This is partially a combination of the poor overall play by the team on a nightly basis, but also how the d-men work together.
Among defensive pairings to play 200+ minutes together at 5-on-5, Seth Jones and Alec Martinez have the lowest xG% on the Blackhawks and third worst in the league at 38.3%. The only two pairing who are worse are Henry Thrun and Cody Ceci with 31.3% from the San Jose Sharks and Ivan Provorov and Denton Mateychuk with a 33.3% from the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Martinez has already spent enough time with Jones on the top pairing. That can’t continue. Martinez is past his prime and while the Blackhawks are spreading things out a little on the back-end, Alex Vlasic needs to be moved back beside Jones again.
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In terms of xG%, Vlasic being paired with Connor Murphy or Louis Crevier hasn’t worked out great either. It’s time to go back to an old reliable as Vlasic has more than proven he can play top minutes and he could possibly stabilize Jones again.
Vlasic with Crevier is a 43.9 xG% while Vlasic with Murphy, the current second pairing, is a 44.1 xG%. While personnel is a fair reason to blame the position in the standings by the Blackhawks, decisions also play a factor.
Now, reducing the time played together, there is a new worst defensive pairing that emerges on the Blackhawks this season, Nolan Allan and TJ Brodie. Allan is just a rookie and this season is his very first in the NHL. Brodie is 34 years old and has been around the NHL for a long time, but he is far past his prime and hasn’t been great for Chicago. While there has been a rotating door of young d-men, it’s Brodie and Martinez who need to take more of a backseat at this point. The Blackhawks are out of it, so let the kids play.
Some of the defensive pairings can be better, but the real need to look at these numbers is to learn from them. The Blackhawks’ coaching and management hasn’t really done so and the results haven’t changed. We’ll see how the rest of the season goes, but unless players are traded, it’s tough to see the pairings change much at all.
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