Looking at the trend in men’s college basketball, a complete roster turnover like Louisville and Kentucky have made hasn’t been conducive to getting into the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats should break that mold this season. The Cardinals have more of an uphill battle to overcome it.
N.C. State was the only team last season, with a roster of seven or more transfers from the previous year, to make the tournament. And the Wolfpack only did so after doing the improbable in winning five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament and claim the league’s automatic bid.
The Pack’s magical run to the Final Four doesn’t erase the fact that it finished 10th in the ACC.
It’s extremely difficult to mold new faces into a new system and play winning basketball, even though neither U of L coach Pat Kelsey nor UK coach Mark Pope had a say in the matter.
By the time both were hired, players from the previous roster were all gone, most of whom entered the transfer portal. So Kelsey and Pope dipped into the portal to begin the construction process.
“They both had to create rosters basically out of nothing, and they’re both starting something new, even though both schools have tradition,” ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas said. “But Louisville’s got a more profound challenge, because they had had a few years of wandering in the wilderness without winning. Kentucky was winning. So I think it’s going to be a little bit easier at Kentucky.”
Seth Greenberg believes no one put together a roster better than Pope did under the circumstances.
“Mark Pope won the roster construction award for last year,” said Greenberg, the former Virginia Tech coach who also serves as an ESPN basketball analyst.
If the win over Duke alone wasn’t convincing enough, the stats are already backing it up.
The college basketball analytics site EvanMiya.com has the Cats’ lineup of Lamont Butler, Andrew Carr, Otega Oweh, Jaxson Robinson and Amari Williams listed fifth in its ranking of top five-man lineups.
The group has played the fourth-fewest possessions together of any of the top 10 lineups, but it scored well enough on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency to merit the recognition.
It’s about the right fit, not just the best talent, which hadn’t been the case since Tubby Smith roamed the sideline in Lexington. Pope’s already meshed his collection of shooters, defenders, good passers and rebounders into a formidable team.
Kelsey’s done the same thing at Louisville, although Bilas believes, “Kentucky’s pieces are, frankly, a little bit better.” We’ll know for sure when the Cats and Cards face each other Dec. 14 at Rupp Arena.
U of L likely has to do most of its résumé building for the NCAA Tournament up to New Year’s Day, starting with its game against Indiana in the three-game Battle 4 Atlantis.
The Cards will either reinforce the notion that they’ve bonded quickly enough to be viewed as a tournament team or be defined as a team that’s going to need more time.
Thing is, they may not have it.
The early results are in, and the ACC is headed toward another lackluster year, which is bad for the league and could end up keeping Louisville out of the tournament as a result.
U of L is scheduled to play only two ACC teams that are currently ranked — Duke (Dec. 8) and North Carolina (Jan. 1) — in the early portion of its schedule, and neither opponent gets a return game.
That will leave the Cards with precious few opportunities to improve their tournament standing in league play should they not emerge with enough marquee wins over the next six weeks. No one at U of L wants to envision another season without a tournament appearance, but Greenberg believes Kelsey is laying a foundation no matter how this season ends up.
“The first year is all about culture and identity,” Greenberg said. “You got to build culture and identity. You got to get the right guys in your locker room to do that, and then once you do that, you build on that.”
If nothing else, Kelsey and Pope have already shown they know how a roster is supposed to be built.
Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville, UK basketball must break trend for NCAA Tournament spot
