Bubble Watch: 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracketology

TCU Men’s Basketball enters the season’s stretch run with one of the nation’s most confounding NCAA Tournament resumes. Highlighted by elite wins over Florida & Iowa State, near-wins vs. top teams Michigan, BYU, and Kansas, and season sweeps over fellow Big 12 Bubble contenders Baylor & Oklahoma State, the Frogs should be in solid shape. However, TCU is dragged down by some truly brutal results including a season-opening home loss to New Orleans and a road loss to give Big 12 cellar dweller Utah its first conference win. Put it all together and the Horned Frogs are squarely on the Bubble with five regular season games remaining, with three at home and two on the road. This final stretch run remains very manageable for TCU to pick up enough wins to boost the resume, but nothing will be easy. Four of the final games are Q2 with the game in Lubbock vs. No. 13 Texas Tech in two weeks being a true Q1A opportunity even with reigning conference player of the year JT Toppin sidelined with injury. Up to Selection Sunday we’ll check in on where the Frogs sit on the March Madness Bubble and track the performance of the other teams fighting for the final at-large bids to the 2026 NCAA Tournament

Horned Frogs Team Sheet

Wins Above Bubble Rank: 44

Bracket Projections:

Note: all rankings are per NET unless otherwise noted

Palm: Last Four In, 11-seed vs. #27 St. Mary’s in Dayton, OH
Torvik: First Four Out, 38.1% in Tournament, average seed 10.4
INCCSTATS: 52% in Tournament, average seed 9.9

Around the Bubble

Climbing

# 68 Grand Canyon Lopes (↑9) – GCU picked up a monster win on Tuesday, knocking off #44 San Diego State on the road, earning the Lopes a third Q1 win on the season, bringing its record to 6-7 in Q1+Q2 contests. The win puts GCU back in the MWC race and back into the at-large conversation. However with a Strength of Schedule ranked 90th it’ll need to keep winning to stay afloat, especially with another Q1 road showdown, going to #23 Utah State next Saturday.
#26 NC State Wolfpack (↑3) – What sweet victory for Will Wade and the Pack Pride, demolishing AP No. 16 North Carolina in Raleigh 82-58 to climb up to a consensus 8-seed in the projections. NC State has now jumped the Tar Heels in the NET and in the ACC Standings. The Pack have just two losses outside of Q1, albeit one being a Q4 black eye at home to Georgia Tech, to go with 12 Q1+Q2 wins. Even with a daunting sprint to the finish, including games vs. #18 Virginia & #2 Duke, NC State is very nearly a lock for the Dance.
Other Key Bubble Wins: #59 Missouri (↑7) – win vs. #15 Vanderbilt; #29 Villanova (↑1) – OT win vs. #98 Xavier; #33 SMU (↑3) – win vs. #15 Louisville; #68 Arizona State (↑3) – win vs. #16 Texas Tech; #26 Iowa (↑1) – win vs. #11 Nebraska

Falling

#70 Nevada Wolf Pack (↓15) – It was a brutal California road trip week for the squad from Reno. Getting outclassed at San Diego State may have been forgivable as a missed Q1 opportunity, but a loss Q4 loss as 10.5-point favorites at #254 San Jose State – giving the Spartans its 2nd MWC win this season – is the nail in the coffin of any at-large hopes for the Wolf Pack. It is Mountain West championship or bust as Nevada transitions off the Bubble and into bid-thief status once conference tourneys begin.
#49 Baylor Bears (↓5) – Since selling out the integrity of college basketball to bring in former NBA Draft pick James Nnaji (averaging 1.7 points in 10 minutes played per game), Scott Drew’s squad has gone 3-10. Baylor has not won a game since February 4, falling to 13-13 after dropping four straight games. Tuesday night delivered one of the worst defeats of the Drew era for the Bears, losing 90-74 to a Kansas State squad that had just fired its head coach and entered the game #100 in the NET. The at-large hopes are fading fast in Waco as the Bears hold zero wins against projected NCAA Tournament teams, however with three Q1 opportunities remaining, the Bubble has not yet fully burst.
Other Key Bubble Losses: #34 Auburn (↓2) loss to #90 Mississippi State; #61 West Virginia (↓7) loss to #114 Utah; #51 Seton Hall (↓2) loss to #102 DePaul; #22 Saint Louis (↓5) – loss to #120 Rhode Island

Bubble Watch

TCU’s loss this week to UCF has the programs swapping spots on consensus brackets, dropping the Horned Frogs below the cut line from “Last Four In” to “First Four Out.” TCU likely controls its own destiny down the stretch with games against fellow Big 12 at-large contenders West Virginia, Arizona State, and Cincinnati, all of which will be played in Schollmaier Arena. Winning all three would move the Frogs up several rungs of the ladder, though still not a lock. TCU will likely need help around the Bubble with other contending squads taking bad losses along the way, or at least not picking up major Q1 resume-boosting wins. Still a couple weeks out from conference tournaments, there are very few potential bid thieves: the A-10 is the primary concern as St. Louis is almost certain to make the Big Dance currently with a 24-2 record and sitting Top 25 in the NET; the WCC Tournament structure makes it nearly impossible for someone other than the big three of Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, or Santa Clara to earn the auto-bid; Miami Ohio in the MAC could be a threat as well, with a chance to complete the regular season undefeated and still get a bid without winning the auto-bid.

Look Ahead:

It’s a huge weekend for sorting through the hierarchy of college basketball, starting with a Friday evening double bubble showcase with the A-10 game of the year between SLU & VCU. Which teams will add a marquee win to the resume and which will fall off the map towards elimination?

Bubble Battles 🫧🆚🫧

#22 St. Louis Billikens vs. #45 VCU Rams – Fri. Feb. 20, 6:00 PM ESPN2
#56 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. #58 Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Sat. Feb. 21, 11:00 AM, ACC Net
#76 Colorado Buffaloes vs. #77 Oklahoma State Cowboys – Sat. Feb. 21, 2:30 PM, TNT
#39 Georgia Bulldogs vs. #35 Texas Longhorns – Sat. 2:30 PM, SEC Network
#49 Baylor Bears vs. #67 Arizona State Sun Devils – Sat. Feb. 21, 3:00 PM, ESPN2
#47 TCU Horned Frogs vs. #61 West Virginia Mountaineers – Sat. Feb. 21, 4:00 PM, NBC Sports
#62 Cal Bears vs. #71 Stanford Cardinal – Sat. Feb. 21, 5:00 PM, ACC Net
#34 Auburn Tigers vs. #30 Kentucky Wildcats – Sat. Feb. 21, 7:30 PM, ESPN
#69 Oklahoma Sooners vs. #43 Texas A&M Aggies – Sat. Feb. 21, 7:30 PM, SEC Net

Bubble vs. Locks 🫧🆚🔒

#34 Indiana Hoosiers vs. #8 Purdue Boilermakers – Fri. Feb. 20, 7:00 PM, FOX
#74 Creighton Bluejays vs. #24 St. John’s Red Storm – Sta. Feb. 21, 11:00 AM, FOX
#72 Syracuse Orange vs. # 28 North Carolina Tar Heels – Sat. Feb. 21, Noon, ABC
#37 Miami Hurricanes vs. #16 Virginia Cavaliers – Sat. Feb. 21, 1:00 PM, ESPN2
#59 Missouri Tigers vs. #18 Arkansas Razorbacks – Sat. Feb 21, 3:00 PM, ESPN
#41 UCLA Bruins vs. #4 Illinois Illini – Sat. Feb. 21, 7:00 PM, FOX
#38 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. #12 Michigan State Spartans – Sun. Feb. 22, Noon, CBS

Bubble vs. Spoiler 🫧🆚❌

#49 Miami Ohio RedHawks vs. #148 Bowling Green Falcons – Fri. Feb. 20, 7:30 PM, CBSSN
#64 Yale Bulldogs vs. #165 Penn Quakers – Sat. Feb. 21, 1:00 PM, ESPN+
#50 Washington Huskies vs. #150 Maryland Terrapins – Sat. Feb. 21, 2:00 PM, Peacock
#31 SMU Mustangs vs. #156 Boston College Eagles – Sat. Feb. 21, 3:00 PM, ACC Net
#52 USC Trojans vs. #120 Oregon Ducks – Sat. Feb. 21, 3:00 PM, FS1
#65 Boise State Broncos vs. #249 San Jose St. Spartans – Sat. Feb. 21, 3:00 PM
#51 Seton Hall Pirates vs. #94 Georgetown Hoyas – Sat. Feb. 21, 5:00 PM, FS1
#54 Belmont Bruins vs. #232 Indiana State Sycamores – Sat. Feb. 21, 7:00 PM, ESPN+
#46 UCF Knights vs. #114 Utah Utes – Sat. Feb. 21, 8:00 PM, ESPN+
#40 Santa Clara Broncos vs. #123 San Francisco Dons – Sat. Feb. 21, 9:00 PM, CBSSN

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