BYU and Cincinnati are trending in opposite directions. BYU is 4-9 in its last 13 games, including two losses last week, and the Bearcats are 5-1 in their last six. Bearcats head coach Wes Miller was firmly on the hot seat a month ago, but the recent surge has the Bearcats on the fringes of the bubble.
Both teams are 8-8 in the Big 12, so the winner here will have a leg up on a higher seed and first round bye in the Big 12 Tournament. This is a Quad 1 game for both teams.
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The game tips off Tuesday at 9pm ET on ESPN2.
Cincinnati and BYU by the Numbers
Cincinnati KenPom: 44
NET ranking: 49
Record: 16-13 (8-8 Big 12)
Best Wins: Colorado (H), Iowa State (H), Baylor (H), UCF (H), Kansas State (A), Utah (H), Kansas (H), Oklahoma State (H)
Losses: Louisville (N), Eastern Michigan (H), Xavier (A), Georgia (N), Clemson (N), Houston (H/A), West Virginia (H/A), UCF (A), Arizona (A), Arizona State (A), Texas Tech (A)
AP Ranking: n/a
BYU KenPom: 23
NET Ranking: 23
Record: 20-9 (8-8 Big 12)
AP Ranking: n/a
KenPom Prediction: BYU 76, Cincinnati 75 — BYU 52% Win Probability
Point Spread: Cincinnati -1.5
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Point Total: 152.5
Cincinnati Overview
The Bearcats had a disastrous non-conference slate and poor start to Big 12 play, but they are living up to their preseason potential the last four weeks. Cincinnati was 8-5 in non-conference — which included a home loss to Eastern Michigan — and started 3-7 in Big 12 play. Since then, they’ve gone 5-1 and have won four of those by at least 16 points. They went into Allen Fieldhouse and beat the Jayhawks by 16. The lone loss in that stretch was a road loss at Texas Tech, and the close win was a four-point home win over last place Utah.
The three ball has been the main reason for Cincinnati’s turnaround. The Bearcats were among the worst offensive teams in the Big 12, but in those four blowout wins they made at least 11 threes. Some performances include 16-28 at Kansas State, 12-31 at Kansas, and 14-34 last game versus Oklahoma State. They shot 8-24 in their loss at Texas Tech and 4-15 in their 4-point win versus Utah.
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One of the weaknesses in Cincy’s offense is getting to the rim and either scoring or drawing fouls. According to KenPom, the Bearcats are bottom four in the Big 12 in two-point percentage, average two-point distance, and foul rate. If they aren’t hitting outside shots than their offense usually struggles.
Defense is where Cincinnati excels and why their offense turning around has made them so dangerous. The Bearcats rank fourth in the Big 12 in KenPom defensive efficiency, and rank #5 in turnover rate and defensive effective field goal percentage. Their massive front court alters shots and their guards are active on defense.
Cincinnati is 7-2 at home in Big 12 play. This game is senior night for them.
Players to Watch
Moustapha Thiam, Center — The 7-foot-2 UCF transfer has been on a tear during this six-game stretch and is a main reason for Cincy’s turnaround. On the season, Thiam is second on the team in scoring (12.6 ppg) and averages 6.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. Thiam has scored 15+ in five straight games and 21+ in the last three. He had 24 points and 15 boards Saturday versus Oklahoma State, and the week prior and Kansas put up 28 and 8. Thiam hasn’t shot the three ball much, but in the last three games has attempted 14 total threes, making 4 of them. Keba will be a huge factor for BYU.
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Baba Miller, Forward/Center — The other half of Cincinnati’s big front court, Miller is 6-foot-11 and leads the team in scoring (13.7 ppg), assists (3.6) and rebounds (9.9). Miller is a versatile scorer and defender and likely spend lots of time guarding AJ.
Day Day Thomas, Guard — The 6-foot-1 point guard also has been playing much better the last six games. He scored in double figures in just 2 of Cincinnati’s first 10 Big 12 games, but has done so in 5 of the last 6. His best came in the last game Saturday, when he scored 26 points on 7-11 three-point shooting versus Oklahoma State.
Jizzle James, Guard — The last of Cincinnati’s four double-figure scorers, James re-joined the team just before Big 12 play and gives them more scoring punch in the backcourt. James rarely gets to the foul line, but shoots 44% from three on over four attempts per game.
Jalen Celestine, Wing — The 6-foot-7 wing is a 3-and-D guy. Celestine averages 7.7 points per game and the majority of his shots come from three, where he shoots 38%.
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Prediction
There are several trends in Cincinnati’s favor. The Bearcats are playing their best ball of the year while BYU is playing its worst, Cincinnati is good at home, and the Bearcats do things that give BYU trouble — three-point shooting and interior size to name just two.
Even with that, this line has stayed at just at Cincy -1.5 for hours now. BYU showed versus Arizona and Iowa State they can compete with top teams, but that flipped around last week.
BYU will need an Iowa State-like defensive performance to win this game. ISU is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and BYU shut them down from distance. BYU will need the same type of focus on UC shooters. When Cincinnati doesn’t shoot well from three their offense struggles.
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I’ll pick Cincy to win, and if BYU doesn’t improve its focus on defense and the glass this could get ugly. If BYU can show the same defensive intensity they did versus Iowa State, than the Cougs will have a good shot to win and start to get back on track.
Prediction: Cincinnati 79, BYU 71
