It’s just three games, but BYU is playing its best post-Richie Saunders injury. Just 12 days after losing at West Virginia, BYU controlled the game wire-to-wire versus WVU in a 68-48 victory. The competition steps up significantly as BYU matches up with Houston, who is well rested while BYU will play its third game in three days.
The game tips off Thursday at 6:00 CT on ESPN2.
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BYU and Houston by the Numbers
Houston KenPom: 6
NET ranking: 7
Record: 26-5 (14-4 Big 12)
Best Wins: Auburn (N), Arkansas (N), Cincinnati (A/H), Texas Tech (H), Baylor (A/H), West Virginia (H), ASU (H), TCU (A), UCF (H), BYU (A), Utah (A), Kansas State (H), Colorado (H), Oklahoma State (A)
Losses: Tennessee (N), Texas Tech (A), Iowa State (A), Arizona (H), Kansas (A)
AP Ranking: 5
BYU KenPom: 22
NET Ranking: 25
Record: 23-10 (9-9 Big 12)
AP Ranking: n/a
KenPom Prediction: Houston 78, BYU 72 — Houston 71% win probability
Point Spread: Houston -8.5
Point Total: 147.5
Houston Overview and First Game Recap
Kansas State and West Virginia are both bottom two in KenPom offensive efficiency, and Houston is #1 in the Big 12. Houston is middle of the pack in shooting, but control the turnover battle. They have the lowest turnover rate in the Big 12 and are second in defensive turnover percentage.
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Houston won the first game in Provo 77-66 back on February 7. AJ Dybantsa had 28 points and Rob Wright had 17, but Richie Saunders shot just 1-8 and no one else stepped up. BYU led 52-50 with about 12 minutes to go before Houston pulled away.
BYU did some things good that matchup; they had just 6 turnovers, held Houston to 7-20 shooting from three, and had 14 offensive rebounds compared to 13 from Houston. Two things really sank BYU — BYU shot just 16-28 (57%) from the foul line and Houston came up with key offensive rebounds down the stretch to ice the game away. Kingston Flemings had 19 points and fellow freshman Chris Cenac scored 16 and was a mismatch for BYU as a 6-foot-11 faceup four. Khadim Mboup had just 2 rebounds in 16 minutes, Dominique Diomande played 1 minute, Kennard Davis scored 5 points, and Alexsej Kostic had 0 points in 9 minutes.
Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp made All-Big 12 First Team while Sharp and starting center Joseph Tugler made All-Defensive Team.
Prediction
BYU probably needs to do at least three of these four things well to have a chance to win: 1) Get to the foul line and make free throws (Houston fouls more than any team in the Big 12), 2) keep the turnover count close, 3) keep the rebound battle even, and 4) AJ Dybantsa needs to consistently score in isolation situations to limit Houston turnovers and traps.
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The first game BYU did 2 and 4 well, but didn’t make foul shots and weren’t good enough on the glass in key moments.
A factor will be rest versus rust. BYU is playing its third game in three days while Houston is playing its first game of the tournament. This BYU team is also different than the last time these teams played a month ago. Richie Saunders isn’t around for BYU, but Khadim Mboup, Dominique Diomande, and Alexsej Kostic have bigger roles. The first two are especially notable since they give BYU more length and athleticism than they did before Richie got hurt.
A win for BYU would in all likelihood secure a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament and put BYU in the conversation for a 5 seed. It would also continue AJ Dybantsa’s March moment as he looks to put his stamp on college basketball in his lone season.
While BYU has shown great effort defensively these last three games, I think Houston is the better team and will be able to wear BYU down in the second half.
Prediction: Houston 78, BYU 68
