After a seven-point loss to #4 Arizona, BYU returns to Provo to host #6 Iowa State. BYU fought hard versus the Wildcats without Richie Saunders, but ultimately couldn’t get enough outside of AJ Dybantsa to pull the upset.
BYU is underdogs once again Saturday, and will look to finally get that elusive Quad 1A when versus the Cyclones. Iowa State isn’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home — they are 3-3 on the road in Big 12 play — but they will be a tall task for BYU.
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The games tips off Saturday at 8:30pm MT on ESPN.
BYU and Iowa State by the Numbers
Iowa State KenPom: 7
NET ranking: 6
Record: 23-3 (10-3 Big 12)
Best Wins: Purdue (A), St John’s (N), Iowa (H), West Virginia (H), Baylor (H/A), Oklahoma State (H/A), Colorado (H), Kansas State (A), Kansas (H), Houston (H)
Losses: Kansas (A), Cincinnati (A), TCU (A)
AP Ranking: 6
BYU KenPom: 22
NET Ranking: 21
Record: 19-7 (7-6 Big 12)
AP Ranking: 23
KenPom Prediction: Iowa State 79, BYU 78 — BYU 45% win probability
Point Spread: Iowa State -3.5
Point Total: 155.5
Iowa State Overview
Iowa State has had a great season and is in play for a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season. The Cyclones are known for their physical and aggressive defense. While they aren’t quite as disruptive on defense as they have been in past years, they are more explosive offensively.
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In Big 12 play, Iowa State ranks #4 in the conference in KenPom offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency. The first thing that jumps out about Iowa State’s offense is that they are a great shooting team. They are #2 in Big 12 play in three-point shooting and #4 in two-point percentage. The Cyclones shoot a blistering 39% from three as a team, behind leading scorer Milan Momcilovic. Momcilovic does it with both volume and efficiency — he shoots over seven threes per game at a 51% clip.
Big man Joshua Jefferson makes them unique to defend. With Toppin’s injury, Jefferson and AJ Dybantsa are the two most likely candidates for defensive player of the year. Jefferson is a point forward, averaging over 5 assists per game and filling up the stat sheet with points and rebounds. Jefferson is arguably the best passing big man in the country, and Iowa State runs a lot of their offense through him.
Iowa State is a great shooting team, and they also rebound a lot of their misses. They are second in the conference in offensive rebound percentage, rebounding 36% of their misses.
Iowa State’s offense is susceptible in two areas — turnovers and free throws. They rank 12th in turnover percentage in Big 12 play, and are last in free throw percentage (64%).
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Defensively, Iowa State’s reputation is well regarded. They aren’t turning teams over quite as much this year, but they are still #3 in the Big 12 in turnover percentage. They rebound well, don’t foul a ton, and are #3 in three-point defense. They give up the highest rate of three-point attempts in the league, but many of them aren’t looks the offense wants.
Iowa State has one of the best home court advantages in college basketball but aren’t nearly as good on the road. Iowa State is 3-3 in true road games in Big 12 play, losing at Kansas, Cincinnati, and TCU. Iowa State lost their last home game 62-55 to TCU. In that game they had 17 turnovers and shot 5-22 from three and 2-8 from the foul line.
Players to Watch
Joshua Jefferson, Forward — Jefferson is their do-everything 6-foot-9 big man who is an All-American candidate. Jefferson averages 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists while shooting 38% from three. Jefferson is a great passer and much of ISU’s offense runs through him.
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Milan Momcilovic, Forward — The 6-foot-8 wing leads Iowa State in scoring (18 ppg) and is the best three-point shooter in the country. Momcilovic shoots 51% on over seven three-point attempts per game. He’s made multiple threes in 12 of 13 Iowa State’s Big 12 games and rarely has an off shooting night.
Talin Lipsey, Guard — Iowa State’s senior point guard is a 4-year starter and the face of the program. Lipsey averages 13 points and 5 assists, but shoots just 64% from the line and less than 30% from three. Lipsey has averaged over two steals every season and is a physical guard.
Killyan Toure, Guard — The freshman guard starts alongside Lipsey. Toure averages 9 points on 33% shooting from three and pairs with Lipsey to form a good defensive backcourt.
Jamarion Batemon, Guard — Batemon averages 6 points off the bench and is a dangerous shooter, shooting 40% from three. The freshman’s home and road splits are drastic — he shoots 43% from three at home and 24% on the road in six games.
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Prediction
Iowa State has a lot of ingredients to give BYU trouble. They shoot the ball well from three, have some high end players, good depth, and have physical guards to bother Rob Wright.
There are some things working in BYU’s favor too. Iowa State is a different team on the road. Cincinnati and TCU are solid, but not spectacular teams, and Iowa State lost by a combined 16 points. They also lost by 21 at Kansas. The Marriott Center should be fired up and hungry to see BYU deliver and elusive signature win. Iowa State has physical guards, but they don’t really have any long wings that can reasonably matchup with AJ. AJ should have a big game, but the big question is can any of BYU’s other players step up? No one could against Arizona, and that was ultimately BYU’s downfall.
I do think BYU keeps this close and has a chance to win in the final minutes. A win would give fans and players a morale boost and show to the committee that this team can beat good teams without Richie.
Ultimately, I think Iowa State’s shooting and physical guard play to hound Rob Wright work in their favor.
Prediction: Iowa State 77, BYU 73
