When Cade Cavalli entered the season as the Opening Day starter, expectations were high, but there was also plenty of uncertainty. Cavalli showed us a glimpse of his high potential down the stretch last year. However, he was still very unproven and had a lengthy injury history. For a guy in his first full MLB season, Cavalli has been remarkably consistent this year.
Cavalli has been a metronome in the Nats rotation. He has been overshadowed a bit by Foster Griffin, whose elite run prevention and great story have attracted eye balls. However, Cavalli has arguably been even more consistent than Griffin. He has allowed 3 or more earned runs just twice this season and does not have a month where his ERA is over 4, outside of his one start in March.
For as great as Griffin has been, he did have a couple blowup starts in May, resulting in a 4.86 ERA that month. Meanwhile, Cavalli posted a 3.67 ERA in April, a 3.41 ERA in May, a 3.82 ERA in June and a 3.10 ERA so far in July. That is just a remarkable level of consistency for a guy in his first full big league season, who missed almost two years with injury not too long ago.
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One critique you could throw at Cavalli, especially early in the season, is that he did not go deep enough into games. It is something he will need to work on to take the next step. Despite making two fewer starts, Griffin has still logged more innings than Cavalli.
There are a couple reasons for this. One is that the Nats are still being a bit careful with Cavalli. His career high in innings before this year is 127.2 innings, which he did all the way back in 2022. Cavalli did pitch 122.2 innings last year as well. However, he is already at 110.2 innings this year.
Butera has said in the past they will not shut Cavalli down unless they see a noticeable drop in stuff. Despite that, it is clear they are monitoring his work load. There have been a few times this season, including yesterday where Cavalli could have gone one more inning, but they held him back.
Another reason he does not go super deep into games is that he can be inefficient at times. It is a bit like MacKenzie Gore where there are a lot of deep counts, though not to that level. As the season has gone on though, he is starting to give the Nats the length expected of a front line starter.
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Yesterday, Cavalli completed at least six innings for the sixth time in his last seven starts. Granted, he could not even go three innings in that other start, but that was clearly an outlier. It was a very hot day and the whole Boston situation seemed to be weighing on Cavalli.
In the three starts since that short outing in DC, Cavalli has been back to his best. He did not have his sharpest stuff against the Yankees, but he still logged a quality start. In his last two though, Cavalli has been excellent. The fastball is living in the upper 90’s and his breaking balls have had a ton of bite. Going into Coors Field and getting out without allowing a run is impressive stuff. That is exactly what Cade did yesterday.
He had some traffic on the bases at times, but when he needed to make a big pitch, Cavalli came through again and again. The big righty was up to 99 MPH and was sitting at 97. Instead of slowing down, it feels like Cavalli has found another gear as the season has gone on, which is lovely to see.
Cavalli has also implemented a new weapon recently with his cutter. He would show one maybe once an outing before July, but he has made it a core part of his arsenal lately. His 92-95 MPH cutter pairs nicely with his 4-seamer which already has natural cut. It is not a swing and miss pitch, but it generates weaker contact and just gives him another look.
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Pitching these days is a cat and mouse game. As hitters adjust to your stuff, you have to adapt on the fly. You can do that by mixing up your usage or command. That is what Cavalli has been doing lately. It is resulting in more success, and notably more strikeouts.
For the season, Cavalli has a 26.6% K rate and a 7.1% walk rate. Those are very strong numbers, and only have been improving as the season goes along. Cavalli is almost 28, but he is still a young pitcher who is adapting to the big leagues. Right now, it really feels like he is settling in and finding his groove.
This season, Cavalli has been an ultra-consistent number 2 starter. However, I still think the best is yet to come for Cavalli, who is just oozing with arm talent. Few pitchers have his velocity and feel for spin. It is special stuff, and if he stays healthy, Cavalli has the chance to be an All-Star level talent for the Nats who can start playoff games.
