The Oklahoma City Thunder have emerged as the betting favorites in the Western Conference, but their NBA Cup loss to the Milwaukee Bucks exposed critical flaws.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has firmly established himself as an MVP candidate, but whether he has a true co-star remains unclear. Jalen Williams has shown brilliant flashes but fell short in critical moments last season, averaging 17 points on only 50.8% true shooting in Oklahoma City’s second-round loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
Williams came back this season a higher-volume 3-point shooter, but he struggled in the NBA Cup elimination games:
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18 points on 21 shots vs. Dallas
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20 points on 20 shots vs. Houston
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18 points on 20 shots vs. Milwaukee
In total, that’s 18.7 points per game on 44% true shooting. Williams was struggling to get all the way to the basket against the likes of AJ Green and Gary Trent in the championship game, and was largely ineffective when any help shaded over. It’s just one game, but it was a repeat of his problems against the Mavericks with the inability to consistently create space for quality looks.
Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t at his best either, scoring 21 points on 24 shots. Andre Jackson shut him down on multiple occasions. But we’ve seen SGA dominate on the biggest stage, something Williams has yet to do. And that’s completely fair: SGA is already 26, while Williams is only 23 years old in just his third season. The fact Williams is already this good — 21/6/5 with versatile defense — gives him obvious All-Star potential.
But can Williams grow into a more consistent star level talent by this spring? Perhaps. Chet Holmgren should be back at some point and would provide more perimeter creation as well, so maybe the Thunder will have enough by committee to ride the hotter hand. But when defenses tighten, this team’s lack of consistent secondary shot creation becomes apparent. It begs the question:
Is this Thunder group built to win a title or are they still just a work in progress?
Some Thunder fans will argue that the team just had a horrid shooting night against the Bucks. Fair. The Thunder shot 15.6% from 3 (5-for-32), their worst number of the season. But they rank 19th in 3-point percentage on the season, unsurprising since the roster is filled with good shooters but few truly great ones. And the Bucks entered the contest with a gameplan to allow those players to get shots, rather than let SGA or Williams get into the paint at will.
Milwaukee had Giannis Antetokounmpo roam off Lu Dort to help in the paint, and he’d blatantly ignore Alex Caruso when defending him. Dort has developed into a knockdown standstill shooter, but Caruso is tremendously streaky on a low volume in his career. This season, he’s made just 25.9% of 3s. As tremendous as he is defensively, it appears he’s going to be the player to receive the Josh Giddey treatment this postseason. Should the Thunder be thinking about making a trade?
Sam Presti is sitting on an unprecedented stockpile of draft picks, giving him the flexibility to trade for nearly any player in the league outside of the untouchables. But will he make a move? Last season, Presti opted for patience, targeting a low-cost veteran in Gordon Hayward, who was so washed up that he ended up retiring after the season. But that was OKC’s first real go-round at making a playoff run, so it made some logical sense to ride it out and find out what the team really needed.
The Thunder found out they needed size. So, they went out and got Isaiah Hartenstein. And someone better than Giddey was needed, so they flipped him for Caruso. This season, it’s looking quite obvious the Thunder need more shooting. Some more size would be nice too. And maybe a backup spark plug scoring guard could help provide the support that SGA needs.
I don’t think there’s any question that Presti needs to move on some of his picks and consolidate existing players on the roster.
Seven players I’d try to target:
• Herb Jones, Pelicans: Reports say that New Orleans isn’t willing to trade Herb. But untouchable? Doubt it. The Thunder have enough picks to make anyone change their mind, and Herb is the type of all-world defender who’d give them size to complement their more perimeter-oriented stoppers.
• Pascal Siakam, Pacers: Siakam would provide championship pedigree, shot creation, and size on defense. The Pacers just traded for him less than a year ago, but considering how the franchise has taken steps back maybe they’d be more willing to take multiple role players and a pile of draft picks.
• John Collins, Jazz: Collins is averaging 18 points and nearly having a 50-40-90 season by shooting 53.4% from the field, 43.6% from 3, and 88.8% from the line. Collins would be insurance if Holmgren can’t get back healthy, and they could play together even if he comes back better than ever.
• Collin Sexton, Jazz: By no means is Sexton the biggest name, but he provides a spark any time the ball is in his hands and he’s a good shooter off the catch. At age 25, he’d fit OKC’s timeline too.
• Larry Nance, Hawks: Nance is a do-it-all forward/big who can defend on the perimeter, offer some rim protection, shoot, facilitate, and finish lobs. He’s not great in any one category, which is why he’s a career rotation player. But OKC could use him in a ton of different roles depending on the series.
• Cam Johnson, Nets: At 6-foot-8, Johnson is a knockdown movement shooter who’s making 43.3% of his 3s this season. He’s not a lockdown defender, but he at least would provide some needed size.
• Cam Thomas, Nets: Some scoring support behind SGA would be a nice additive piece, just in case Williams doesn’t become the man by the playoffs. Thomas hasn’t done zilch in the postseason, but he’s a bonafide bucket-getter who shines when given the opportunity.
The Thunder’s future is undeniably bright, but championship windows are fragile. A single injury, unexpected chemistry issues, or missteps in roster building can close it quicker than expected. Look no further than the 2010s Thunder team with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. The trio made one Finals, and the basketball world thought it was just the beginning of their reign. But they never made it back. And they ultimately disbanded.
Now, this iteration of the Thunder faces a familiar dilemma: whether to bet on patience or urgency. Presti’s next move could define a generation. Play it right, and there could be a golden era in Oklahoma City. But wait too long, and this team risks being another “what if” in the annals of NBA history.
