OU women’s basketball is back in the Sweet 16, and just like last year, a vaunted blueblood stands between the Sooners and a potential Elite Eight bid.
Connecticut last year. South Carolina this year.
The No. 4 seed Sooners will face the No. 1 seed Gamecocks at 4 p.m. Saturday in Sacramento, California.
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It’s a rematch of two months ago, when OU upset South Carolina 94-82 in Norman.
Can the Sooners do it again?
More: Jennie Baranczyk raising ‘baseline standard’ for OU women’s basketball in March Madness
Three reasons why OU will beat South Carolina
1. The Sooners have done it before
South Carolina came to Norman on Jan. 22 riding a 12-game winning streak. OU, meanwhile, was sputtering. The Sooners had dropped three consecutive games, the last of which was a blowout loss to LSU.
OU trailed South Carolina by seven points at halftime, but the Sooners dominated the third quarter. OU allowed a late lead to slip away and the game went to overtime.
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OU blasted South Carolina 19-7 in overtime to get the win over the then second-ranked Gamecocks.
Freshman guard Aaliyah Chavez went nuclear in the overtime period, scoring 15 of her 26 points and draining four 3-pointers in the five-minute span.
Only two teams have beaten South Carolina (33-3): OU and Texas (twice).
More: OU women’s basketball vs South Carolina prediction, our pick for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
2. Raegan Beers outplays Madina Okot
OU senior center Raegan Beers outplayed her counterpart, Madina Okot, in the first matchup.
Beers had 18 points on 8-of-9 shooting. She dominated the glass with 14 rebounds.
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Okot, a sophomore transfer from Mississippi State, was a non-factor. Okot started, but she was limited to six points and four rebounds in 17 minutes.
Okot is fresh off a 15-point, 15-rebound game against Southern Cal while Beers had 18 points and 14 rebounds against Michigan State — matching her South Carolina line.
Beers has to win the battle of the bigs again, and win it by a lot, for the Sooners to have a chance.
More: OU women’s basketball star Raegan Beers felt all the emotions leading Sooners to Sweet 16
3. Aaliyah Chavez goes on a 3-point heater
It’s not too early for the dynamic freshman to have her March Moment.
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Chavez has been ice cold this postseason — shooting a combined 7-of-33 (21%) from 3-point range in two SEC Tournament and two NCAA Tournament games — but she’s a microwave scorer who only takes a second to get hot.
Chavez had four games in which she made at least five 3-pointers. The last was against these Gamecocks.
More: Aaliyah Chavez, Raegan Beers form a scary March Madness tandem for OU women’s basketball
Three reasons why South Carolina will beat OU
1. The Gamecocks will be seeking revenge
How could the first matchup influence this one? There’s two ways to look at it. On one hand, it should give the Sooners confidence. On the other hand, if South Carolina needed another reason to be amped up … revenge is a powerful drug.
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Then again, Texas beat South Carolina twice. Yeah, but OU is not Texas.
2. Dawn Staley doesn’t miss Final Fours
Jennie Baranczyk has done a heck of a job in leading the Sooners to back-to-back Sweet 16s. Using that as context, consider that South Carolina coach Dawn Staley has led the Gamecocks to five consecutive Final Fours. This year would be the sixth.
South Carolina has made the Final Four in seven of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments.
Staley, with three national titles since 2017, has built a dynasty.
3. South Carolina wins the possession game
This is not breaking news, but OU turns the ball over. A lot. It’s a byproduct of playing at a blistering speed, and, for the most part, you can’t argue with the results.
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You also can’t give away possessions against this South Carolina team, led by SEC Defensive Player of the Year Raven Johnson.
South Carolina will force OU into mistakes, which will equal easy buckets on the other end.
It’s asking a lot for OU’s offense to play at a breakneck speed while also being cautious with the ball, but that’s the script it will take if the Sooners are to beat the Gamecocks again.
Prediction: South Carolina 91, OU 79. The Sooners are a really good team, a really fun team, but the Gamecocks are in a different tier. Dawn Staley hasn’t lost in the Sweet 16 since 2019, when Baranczyk was still at Drake.
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Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
OU vs. South Carolina
TIPOFF: 4 p.m. CT Saturday at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California (ESPN)
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Why OU women’s basketball can upset South Carolina again in Sweet 16
