Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sunday’s NHL Playoffs Game 1

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Juraj Slafkovsky enjoyed a massive breakout season with Montreal, blowing past previous highs while producing 73 points over 82 games.

He enjoyed a lot of success against Tampa Bay, and my Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions expect that to continue in the series opener.

Let’s dive into my NHL picks for Sunday, April 19.

Canadiens vs Lightning Game 1 prediction

Who will win Canadiens vs Lightning Game 1?

Lightning: Despite dealing with a ton of injuries all season long, they still won 50 games and finished 32 goals above Montreal in goal differential. They have a better underlying profile, a battle-tested roster, and an advantage in goal. That should shine through.

Canadiens vs Lightning best bet: Juraj Slafkovsky Over 0.5 points (-145)

Juraj Slafkovsky had an excellent campaign altogether but was especially effective down the stretch, producing 28 points over 25 games following the Olympics.

It wasn’t as if Slafkovsky had a couple of ceiling performances exaggerate his numbers. He was remarkably consistent, hitting the scoresheet at least once in 18 games — good for a 74% clip.

Slafkovsky faced the Tampa Bay Lightning twice during that stretch and produced multiple points in both meetings. That is nothing new for Slafkovsky, who has points in five of his last six against the Bolts.

Look for Slafkovsky to make an impact in Game 1.

Canadiens vs Lightning Game 1 same-game parlay

Mike Matheson blocked multiple shots in 60% of his games this season, including the only game played without Noah Dobson. The Montreal Canadiens are likely to be even more reliant on the veteran defenseman with Dobson sidelined.

More usage means more opportunities to block shots, especially against a strong shot-generation team like Tampa Bay.

Jake Guentzel has 43 goals and 73 points through 74 games, always rising to the occasion when the games matter most. He also has points in eight of his last 10 against Montreal, making him a prime target in this matchup.

Canadiens vs Lightning SGP

Juraj Slafkovsky Over 0.5 points
Mike Matheson Over 1.5 blocked shots
Jake Guentzel Over 0.5 points

Canadiens vs Lightning Game 1 goal scorer pick

Nikita Kucherov (+130)

Nikita Kucherov hasn’t scored in back-to-back playoff series, but a steady dose of Aleksander Barkov and Gustav Forsling certainly had a lot to do with it.

The Canadiens don’t have true shutdown personnel — particularly on the backend — of that level, and head coach Jon Cooper also controls the matchups. That should result in less time against Selke candidate Nick Suzuki, which would help Kucherov’s cause.

Look for Kucherov to put his recent postseason struggles behind him.

Canadiens vs Lightning odds for Game 1

Moneyline: Montreal +155 | Tampa Bay -180
Puck line: Montreal +1.5 (-155) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+115) | Under 6.5 (-135)

Canadiens vs Lightning trend

Juraj Slafkovsky has produced nine points over his last six games against Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Lightning.

How to watch Canadiens vs Lightning Game 1

Location	Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
Date	Sunday, April 19, 2026
Puck drop	5:45 p.m. ET
TV	TNT, truTV, CBC

Canadiens vs Lightning latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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