Penn State will get a slightly surprising chance to play for the Big Ten championship next weekend in Indianapolis after finishing off an 11-1 regular season and getting a big helping hand from Michigan to drop Ohio State into two-loss territory. A win next weekend against undefeated Oregon may be considered a bit surprising as well, but it would be rewarded with not only a Big Ten trophy to add to Penn State’s collection, but a first-round bye in the upcoming College Football Playoff.
But the latest bowl projection from CBS Sports suggests Penn State may not come home from Indianapolis next week with a new trophy. Instead, Penn State will be gearing up for a first-round playoff matchup.
Jerry Palm of CBSSports is projecting Oregon to top Penn State in the Big Ten championship game, keeping the top-ranked Ducks in the no. 1 seed in the playoff and getting the first-round bye. Without a conference championship, Penn State would be knocked out of any bye situation and would be playing in the first round. According to Palm’s latest projection, Penn State would fall to the no. 6 seed in the bracket, which would be good enough to secure a home playoff game in Beaver Stadium.
So who would Penn State play according to this projection? The Indiana Hoosiers.
Like Penn State, Indiana wrapped up an 11-1 regular season and both teams lost to Ohio State for their only setbacks in the regular season. Penn State got the nod for the Big Ten title game appearance over Indiana based on a tiebreaker related to the combined winning percentage by opponents since the two schools did not face each other this season. You have to imagine Indiana would be absolutely fired up to make a point if they did indeed have to make the trip to Beaver Stadium for the first round.
According to Palm’s updated playoff projection, the winner of the hypothetical Penn State-Indiana matchup would go on to face SMU, whom Palm is predicting will win the ACC and get a first-round bye. Matchups against Indiana (at home) and SMU may not be the worst draw in the playoff field. Wins in each could set up a potential matchup with Georgia (Palm’s projected SEC champion), Notre Dame, or Arizona State (Palm’s projected Big 12 champion).
The College Football Playoff selection committee will update its rankings on Tuesday night. Penn State could be about to move up one spot overall following Ohio State’s loss. But the focus now is simply on trying to take down Oregon and hand the Ducks their first loss of the year. A win could potentially land Penn State the no. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
You can view all of Palm’s updated College Football Playoff projections via CBSSports.com.
Follow Kevin McGuire on Threads, Bluesky, Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook.
