Celtics vs. Knicks: Rivalry renewed? Key matchups, schedule and prediction for battle of East foes

The Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed, the Boston Celtics (61-21), will take on the third-seeded New York Knicks (51-31) in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. This will mark the 15th (!) postseason meeting between two of the three charter franchises of the original Basketball Association of America; the most recent matchup was in 2013, when Carmelo Anthony’s Knicks eliminated the last-gasp Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce Celtics in the first round in six games.

What we know about the Celtics

The defending champions blitzed through the regular season as one of only two teams to rank in the top five in the NBA in offensive and defensive efficiency. (The other? The 68-win Thunder.) They then dispensed with the seventh-seeded Magic in a hard-fought, exceedingly physical five-game series bookended by a pair of blowouts, in which Jayson Tatum reminded everyone why he’s about to earn his fourth straight selection to the All-NBA First Team.

After suffering a right wrist injury in Game 1 that cost him Game 2, Boston’s ace closed the series brilliantly, averaging 36 points, 10.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.7 blocks per game over the final three contests. The 27-year-old Tatum has a strong claim to being the most complete player in the NBA — an efficient three-level scorer; a composed offensive engine capable of creating great looks for others; an excellent multipositional defender equally adept at bodying up centers on the defensive glass and switching out onto jitterbug guards; and, with 117 postseason games, five Eastern Conference finals appearances, two NBA Finals and an NBA championship under his belt, one of the most seasoned playoff performers in the league.

As phenomenal as Jalen Brunson was in closing out the Pistons, and as he has been throughout his postseasons in New York, Tatum can credibly assert that he’s the best player in this series. He’s also flanked by a championship core: Finals MVP and four-time All-Star Jaylen Brown, whose right knee seems just fine; elite two-way guards Derrick White and Jrue Holiday (who missed the final three games of Round 1 with a right hamstring strain); floor-spacing, rim-protecting, mismatch-mashing big men Kristaps Porziņġis and Al Horford; and a bench led by newly minted Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard.

Boston’s loaded for bear and, after a vigorous test from the Magic, ready for war. If the Knicks aren’t, the C’s might walk straight through them.

What we know about the Knicks

On one hand, the offseason revamp that brought in Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges did pay dividends. New York won one more regular-season game than last season, moved up to fifth in points scored per possession, finished either in or just outside the top 10 in a slew of defensive categories, and profiled as something like the fifth- or sixth-best team in the NBA, paced by likely All-NBA campaigns from Brunson and Towns.

Pop the hood on the Knicks’ season, though, and things look a little less rosy.

New York went 28-21 after Jan. 1, with the NBA’s 14th-ranked offense and 16th-ranked defense in that span. The Knicks’ high-priced and highly touted starting five — Brunson, Towns, Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart — was outscored by nine points in 379 minutes over the final three-plus months of the season, with a defensive rating (117.3) on par with the 24-58 Philadelphia 76ers’ full-season mark. The early-season success that Brunson and Towns found in the two-man game largely dissipated — a quietly burbling issue that exploded into full view in Game 2 of the first round, when Towns went without a field goal attempt in the final 17 minutes of a dispiriting loss.

In many ways, the first-round matchup with Detroit offered a microcosm of the Knicks’ season on the whole: more wins than losses, yes, but in often underwhelming fashion, with occasional bursts of brilliance and incredible shot-making bailing out arrhythmic offense, shaky defense and at-times head-scratching decision-making.

Those bursts of brilliance were enough to outlast young, inexperienced Detroit. Against the defending champs, though? The brilliance will have to be a hell of a lot more consistent than that.

Head-to-head

Boston swept the season series, 4-0 … and it felt that lopsided.

The Celtics began the season celebrating their championship win by raising a banner, receiving their rings … and absolutely destroying New York, 132-109, behind an NBA-record-tying 29 3-pointers:

The Knicks would have to wait more than three months for their chance at revenge … only to get absolutely destroyed, 131-104, by a Celtics team without Porziņġis or Holiday, thanks to a 40-point, seven-triple performance from Tatum.

(In the spirit of giving equal time, New York was without Anunoby and center Mitchell Robinson in that one.)

Another February matchup once again saw Boston dominate, leading by as many as 27 early in the third quarter before a fourth-quarter run to cut it to single digits in what would wind up a 118-105 Celtics win.

The Knicks played the Celtics close only once this season: in early April, with both teams barreling toward their respective seedings in the top half of the Eastern pecking order. A 12-2 late-fourth-quarter run gave New York a three-point lead with 50 seconds remaining, drawing the Knicks within arm’s reach of their first win of the season over an elite opponent.

Tatum, however, had other ideas:

After Tatum’s buzzer-beating, game-tying triple sent it to overtime, strong Celtics defense, hustle plays by backup big man Luke Kornet, and five quick points by Porziņġis — including a 30-foot pick-and-pop bomb — put Boston up for good. Holiday free throws would seal a 119-117 win, a four-game season sweep by the C’s — and a winless campaign for the Knicks against the top flight, as they went 0-10 against the Celtics, Cavaliers and Thunder.

Matchup to watch

Boston’s pick-and-roll offense vs. Brunson and Towns

The Celtics set the terms of engagement for this series on the very first night of the 2024-25 NBA season, all the way back in October:

Oh, you have Anunoby, Bridges and Hart to put on Tatum and Brown? That’s cool. Doesn’t really matter, though, because Boston is bringing whoever KAT’s guarding up to screen on the ball: NBA.com’s John Schuhmann notes that the Celtics “put Towns in 134 pick-and-rolls (51 per 100 possessions) in the regular season, the most of any defender” Boston faced all year.

If Towns sags back in drop coverage, and if the ball-handler’s defender doesn’t get over the screen, it’s an automatic pull-up 3, right in his eye. Even if the drop isn’t all that deep, if KAT’s not all the way up to the level with high hands and an active contest … it’s still an automatic pull-up, right in his eye.

If he does come up to the level? Well, the Celtics are confident they can either beat him off the dribble and turn the corner on him to get downhill into the paint, or slip a pass to Towns’ man sliding into the pocket to make a play on the short roll — an approach that Detroit’s Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren used effectively against New York last round:

Replace Cunningham with Tatum, Duren with Porziņġis or Horford, and Ausar Thompson with White or Holiday, whom Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla loves to station in the dunker spot, inverting coverages and messing with defenders. It’s a recipe for layups or kickouts to open shooters … which, against a Celtics team that led the NBA in 3-pointers made and attempted during the regular season, with a top-10 hit rate on its long balls, is a recipe for disaster.

Even if Towns does stall out the pick-and-roll, Boston can still punish New York by having whoever Brunson is guarding come up to set the screen, dragging him into the action and looking to get him switched onto a bigger ball-handler. The Knicks will try to keep him out of the fray, often by having Brunson jump out to hedge the pick-and-roll before retreating back to his man.

If he’s not aggressive and physical on the hedge, though … or if he’s a beat late recovering to his man on the closeout … or if the Celtics can exploit New York putting two defenders on the ball with a quick enough pass to create a 4-on-3 … or if New York’s low defenders aren’t on point with their rotations behind the play … then the Knicks could be in for a world of hurt:

Orlando had (some) success in stifling the Celtics’ offense in the opening round by switching every screening action and refusing to send help, forcing Boston into isolation play and tamping down the number of 3-point attempts the C’s could get up. Given the specific limitations of Towns and Brunson, though, that’s not a style that New York is well equipped to play: Boston averaged 48.3 long-ball launches per game against the Knicks this season, torching the Knicks to the tune of 130.2 points per 100 possessions during their four regular-season matchups. That was New York’s worst defensive rating against any opponent this season, by a lot.

The variety of Boston’s screen game — screen-the-screener actions like Spain pick-and-rolls that force defenders to navigate traffic before even getting to the point of attack, double-drags in transition, inverted pick-and-rolls with smaller guards screening for bigger wings — devastated New York across their previous four matchups. If Thibodeau can’t come up with an out-of-left-field method of forcing the Celtics to play left-handed, it’s tough to see the postseason matchup unfolding much differently than the regular-season edition.

Crunch-time lineups

Boston Celtics

With Holiday sidelined due to the hamstring strain, Boston’s most frequently used five-man lineups against Orlando were Tatum, Brown, White, Horford and Porziņġis, and a unit that kept the first four but swapped in Kornet at the 5. Neither went super hot: They got outscored by a combined 16 points in 57 minutes, struggling to score efficiently in either configuration.

If Holiday’s good to go, I’d bet that Mazzulla will rely on his top six — the perimeter quartet of Tatum, Brown, Holiday and White — with either Porziņġis or Horford at the 5. It’s a five-out death trap capable of punishing whichever weak defensive link you’ve got … especially smaller guards and more lumbering bigs susceptible to being hunted in the pick-and-roll.

(If Thibodeau rides with the double-big look of Towns and Robinson, Mazzulla’s super comfortable matching up by taking one of his guards off the floor in favor of rolling with both Porziņġis and Horford — or even Kornet, a high-quality rim protector and offensive rebounder who’s one of the most underrated reserves in the league.)

New York Knicks

Second verse, same as the first: Expect Thibodeau to lean heavily, and almost exclusively, on Brunson, Towns, Hart, Bridges and Anunoby — the starting five that played more minutes than any other lineup in the NBA during the regular season, that leads all five-man units to this point in the postseason, and that logged more fourth-quarter minutes than any other lineup in Round 1.

Those five players represent New York’s best blend of shooting, perimeter defense, rebounding, toughness and physicality — and against Boston, the Knicks are going to need all of that, and then some. They’re also effectively New York’s only five late-game options.

Robinson’s an excellent interior and pick-and-roll defender who can dominate on the offensive glass, but his shaky hands in traffic and woeful free-throw shooting make him an offensive liability. Cameron Payne is a wild card capable of offering useful minutes as a ball-handler and complementary shooter, but he’s another small defender that Boston can prey on. Miles McBride and Landry Shamet, in theory, provide both a dose of shooting and more defensive aptitude in the backcourt; in practice, McBride has shot 37.3% from the field since the start of February, and Thibs’ trust in Shamet extended to a whopping 10 minutes over the final five games of the first round.

That’s New York’s bench. And that’s why it’s a pretty safe bet that, if the game’s in the balance, Thibs will stick with the five he trusts most.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

This is the nightmare matchup for these Knicks — the bar they saw set last season and that they were very clearly attempting to reach with their offseason moves, but that they have proven all season long to remain incapable of reaching. Respect for Brunson’s record of stellar postseason performances requires me to project one out-of-body-experience type of win. Beyond that, though? I expect the C’s to be gentlemen about moving on to yet another Eastern Conference finals.

Series betting odds

(Via BetMGM)

Boston Celtics (-800)

New York Knicks (+550)

Series schedule (all times Eastern)

Game 1: Mon., May 5 @ Boston (7 p.m., TNT)

Game 2: Wed., May 7 @ Boston (7 p.m., TNT)

Game 3: Sat., May 10 @ New York (TBD, ABC)

Game 4: Mon., May 12 @ New York (TBD, ESPN)

*Game 5: Wed., May 14 @ Boston (TBD, TNT)

*Game 6: Fri., May 16 @ New York (TBD, ESPN)

*Game 7: Mon., May 19 @ Boston (8 p.m., TNT)

*if necessary

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