Before Halloween, the highly touted University of Cincinnati Bearcats men’s basketball team demonstrably routed Ohio State 80-62 in a charity exhibition. Though it didn’t count, Wes Miller’s newly formed team drew “oohs and ahs” at Fifth Third Arena.
It didn’t matter that it didn’t count and it didn’t hurt that it was the first win over the Buckeyes since the back-to-back national championships of 1961 and 1962. UC would win its first seven regular-season games before falling at Villanova Dec. 3 minus Dan Skillings Jr. They would improve to 10-1 by the end of the month with a come-from-behind Skyline Chili Crosstown Shootout win (Miller’s first) and a victory over then-No. 22 Dayton at Heritage Bank Center.
A curious Big 12 conference opener followed Dec. 30 at Kansas State, a 70-67 loss where the Wildcats led for over 35 of the 40 minutes. Still, UC entered the new year ranked No. 16.
The Bearcats have since lost seven of their last nine, the last being a discombobulated effort at Fifth Third Arena which saw them down 15 points at halftime against a West Virginia team they were favored to beat. An arena full of optimism just a few months ago was sour with boos when UC was down 13 late in the first half after a timeout and again with less than seven minutes to play when the Mountaineers went up by 22 as a 29% three-point shooter sank his fourth triple in a row.
The Bearcats had an 8-0 non-conference record against seven cupcakes and Xavier. They are 1-4 at home in the Big 12 and ranked 15th out of 16 teams in the league, where they were picked sixth.
How many college basketball experts missed on Cincinnati Bearcats?
Given the current data, all of them. Truth be told, my Enquirer projections missed the mark like a clanked free throw.
Associated Press Preseason Poll: UC was picked No. 20
Of the teams in the first AP poll, Gonzaga, Baylor, North Carolina, Creighton, Arkansas, Indiana, Texas, UCLA and Rutgers are all out now in addition to the Bearcats. The Tar Heels, Razorbacks, Hoosiers, Scarlet Knights and UC no longer even receive votes.
Only Rutgers has a worse record than UC at 11-11. Arkansas and North Carolina both have one more win than UC.
USA TODAY Coaches Preseason Poll: UC was picked No. 20
Jeff Borzello, ESPN: UC picked No. 19
Blue Ribbon Basketball Yearbook: UC picked No. 21 (also Xavier 23rd)
Blue Ribbon scored UC’s backcourt an “A”, frontcourt an “A”, bench/depth a “B” and intangibles a “B”. Also mentioned was last year’s “near misses”: a one-point loss to No. 25 Texas, a three-point loss at No. 14 Baylor, a four-point loss to No. 15 Oklahoma, a five-point loss at No. 7 Kansas and their four-point road trip loss in Morgantown to West Virginia.
This season Dayton is the only win over a ranked team (at the time). The Bearcats actually led No. 11 Kansas by a point, but then could only score 15 more in a 54-40 loss Jan. 11.
Andy Katz: UC picked No. 23
“Cincinnati returns their top three scorers and brought in Dillon Mitchell looking for their first NCAA tournament since 2019.”
Jon Rothstein 45: UC picked No. 20
“Best team since the 2018-19 season.”
Mike DeCourcy, Sporting News: UC picked No. 20
Cincinnati Bearcats statistically spiral
From an NCAA NET ranking of No. 10 on Dec. 1, the Bearcats have plummeted to No. 53 on Feb. 3 after the WVU loss. After four quadrant 1 wins last season, they have nary one heading into UCF Wednesday, which is their next opportunity. Beyond that, they have road trips at Iowa State and Houston where they are double-digit underdogs, a road trip to Morgantown for a West Virginia rematch and a home game vs. Baylor as their only chances.
Cincinnati Bearcats projections aren’t flattering
KenPom.com has UC finishing 16-15 (6-14 Big 12), BartTorvik.com who had UC at 18-13 after the BYU, Utah losses out west, now has the Bearcats also at 16-15 (6-14) with projected wins at home over Utah, TCU, Kansas State and a road win at Oklahoma State. Teamrankings.com puts UC at 17-14 (7-13) giving them a slight edge over BYU at home in addition to the projected wins Torvik has.
Bearcats’ best-case scenario?
Obviously winning out might provide a handsome jackpot, but it doesn’t appear likely without some attitude adjustments. Several Bearcats are bilingual, but some are failing miserably in “body English”.
The Big 12 tournament is March 11-15 in Kansas City. Last year, UC won games vs. West Virginia and Kansas before falling in the quarterfinals to Baylor. Teamrankings.com currently has them as a No. 12 seed which would pit them against the No. 13 projected seed which is currently Arizona State. The winner would get the projected No. 5, which for now is Kansas. Many of the current Bearcats beat the Jayhawks last year in Kansas City by 20, but multiple adjustments would need to happen to recreate history.
Otherwise, UC might not be in a tournament that begins with the letter “N”. Before the West Virginia loss, the site dratings.com posted an NIT bracketology that showed UC in the mix, but unseeded. Xavier was listed as a No. 2 seed.
Anything can happen between now and March
This is true as illustrated by archrival Xavier in 2004 when they went from 10-9 to the Elite Eight. Momentum can come in spurts, good or bad. Georgia Tech, whom UC throttled by 23 in November, just beat No. 21 Louisville at home. In the Big 12 this weekend, 10-11 Kansas State took down No. 3 Iowa State in Ames by 19 points, No. 11 Kansas blew a 21-point lead and lost at Baylor and No. 22 Texas Tech had its coach and best player ejected early and still beat No. 6 Houston 82-81 in overtime at the Fertitta Center.
The Bearcats have played with all of those teams in recent years but as the “Cheer Cincinnati” song goes, they’ve struggled to “fight to the finish”.
Said Miller, “This group’s got fight, it’s got heart, it’s got character. We’ve got to get it out of them.”
What’s next for Cincinnati Bearcats?
It’s either opportunity or adversity, depending on the response. Wes Miller didn’t pull a “Bob Huggins” and take their practice gear and ornate locker room away, but he did challenge their “competitive character” in practice before the WVU loss. He also lamented what he’s facing from the college athlete of 2025 after the game.
“I don’t know if I’ve ever had a team at this point of the year where I felt the lack of effort collectively that I feel right now,” Miller said. “College basketball coaching has challenges. What you do is you keep fighting, you keep trying to figure it out.”
Frustration and financials
Everyone is always quick to dispense with someone’s job when things are going south. It’s a knee-jerk reaction and the anonymity of social media makes everyone a CEO and AD. There’s no sugar-coating the disappointment, but the truth is Cincinnati is not the one-horse town that much of the Big 12 is in terms of athletic dollars.
There is no pro football or baseball in Lubbock, Provo, Ames, Morgantown, Stillwater, Tucson or Manhattan. Salt Lake City has pro hoops and hockey and Orlando has the NBA. Waco is a good hour and a half drive from Dallas, Boulder is about an hour from Denver and Lawrence sits on the outskirts of Kansas City. Houston and TCU (Fort Worth) are in pro towns as well as Arizona State (Tempe/Phoenix).
In the University of Cincinnati’s Big 12 revenue report requested by USA Today/Cincinnati Enquirer, expenses were $105.3 million in 2024 with a deficit of $8.6 million (up over $4.9 million from 2023). This is all attributed to joining the Big 12 early. UC has been at a half-share of $18 million of TV revenues, which still is significantly more than the $6.75 million the AAC offered. On July 1, they are full-share members at roughly $36 million.
But, the House vs. NCAA settlement, which some are still litigating, requires a pool of at least $20 million for revenue sharing among athletes. So, in addition to added revenues July 1, there will be added expenses. A buyout of a coach for $13 million ($9.9 April 1) might be a steep ask and it’s rare for a basketball coach to be dismissed during a season.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How did Cincinnati Bearcats basketball tumble so quickly from Top 25?
