Clemson Looking to Bounce Back after Two Difficult Losses
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Those famous words from Charles Dickens sums up the last two outings for Clemson’s men’s basketball team who dropped two close quad 1 games to Alabama and BYU. Both of those games featured extended stretches of tremendous fight and team basketball which excites you about what this team could be, but then there were extended stretches where either the defense or the offense completely fell apart and allowed Alabama and BYU to escape with the victories. Clemson has gotten the program where these marquis games, particularly having a chance to play in Madison Square Garden on a national stage, are now possible for a program long relegated as a second class citizen of the ACC. However, it is important that Clemson win some of these to make sure that will continue to be the case in the future. The Tigers certainly don’t look like they don’t belong, but wins are ultimately the judge when it is all said and done.
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Now the Tigers must dust themselves off and be ready against a pretty good Mercer team who will contend for the Southern Conference title and an NCAA birth. The Bears are currently 7-2 and inside the KenPom top 200. Fellow STS writer Ryan Kantor brought up the time Clemson lost a big lead to a loaded UNC squad back in 2008, and then followed that with a very poor showing and upset loss at the hands of Charlotte. These Tigers need to make sure that history doesn’t repeat itself because dropping any of these lesser out of league games will severely damage its NCAA tournament chances since they failed to notch a signature win vs. Alabama or BYU. Clemson’s students will be heading out for their Christmas Break, so the home atmosphere for this one could potentially be tame as well.
Mercer has only played one P4 game so far this year, dropping its opener to Tennessee 61-76. Its other defeat was to Winthrop at Winthrop, but Winthrop is a dangerous mid-major in its own right having nearly upset Arkansas earlier this season. Their starting 5 logs heavy minute share between 25.9-32.4 a game, so the Tigers should have a significant depth advantage and should look to get as many of the starters in foul trouble as they can. They had limited success with that vs. BYU. The good news is, Mercer doesn’t have NBA talent on its roster and life around the rim should be a lot easier than it has been the last two outings when Clemson was victimized by 19 blocked shots combined. It is pretty evident that Clemson is most capable in the post versus its ability to consistently produce from the perimeter at this stage of the season. R.J. Godfrey has been very consistent, but the other posts have taken turns being good to disappearing game to game. Clemson simply lacks the 3 point firepower to overcome the posts not being a bit more consistent in the big games.
Mercer has one for the all name team in Central Michigan transfer Armani Mighty, a 6’10 240 pounder who is averaging 14.3 points and 9.2 rebounds a game. Mighty is their best hope to bother and attack Clemson’s posts in the paint, and should also be a primary target to get into foul trouble if possible. He is a poor free throw shooter, so guys not named R.J. Godfrey should opt to put him on the line versus surrendering easy buckets if possible.
Mercer is led in scoring by Baraka Okojie, who Clemson saw last year when he was with Memphis. Okojie has enjoyed moving down in terms of production and currently averages 17.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, and leads the team with 47 assists. He is the straw that stirs their drink and Clemson will need to make sure he doesn’t cause the type of damage Alabama’s Labaron Philon and BYU’s AJ Dybansta did in getting into the paint and getting to the foul line. Okojie can live at the line if you aren’t buttoned up on him, and has two games already with over 10 FT attempts, including a whopping 20 in their big win at Elon. If the Bears are able to hang with Clemson and challenge for the upset, Okojie will be at the center of things without a doubt. He is not a very good 3 point shooter, so the Tigers should do their best to encourage him to take those versus attacking off the bounce and take their chances. Clemson does have depth to absorb some fouls but you don’t want to make a living letting this guy shoot unguarded FTs all night.
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Quinton Perkins, Zaire Williams, and Brady Shoulders round out their starting 5 and all average between 8.9-12.4 points per game. Williams, Perkins, and sub Kyle Cuffe are their primary 3 point threats as all three have at least 40 attempts so far. Williams and Perkins are their best percentage wise at 42 and 37% respectively.
The Bears are a more offensive oriented team who want to score and play at an above average pace, so the Tigers naturally will look to control the pace of play and look to exploit Mercer’s questionable defense. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Mercer try to zone Clemson based on how mercurial the Tigers have been with their 3 point shooting to this point. They also are going to want to protect Mighty in the paint as much as possible as there is a pretty significant drop off from him to their backup posts.
Overall, Clemson needs to own the paint in this game, keep Okojie out of the paint and off the FT line, and continue to share the basketball as they have done a pretty good job of so far this season to force Mercer to move and rotate defensively, which is not their strength. Do that and they should pull away as they have against the non-P4 competition they have faced this season. I don’t expect this game to be settled at the half considering the Bears have some weapons and I expect some level of hangover from the New York trip.
Ken Pom has the Tigers at 85-66, but I think it will be a little closer than that with the Tigers pulling it out 81-69.
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