With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, we can safely shift our focus to the madness is set to begin in college basketball.
Several major and mid-major teams set their eyes on March with the hope of dancing their way into the NCAA tournament. There are teams who started out hot and have begun to fade, while others are trying to dig themselves out of early holes and convince the selection committee that they belong in the field of 68.
Here are my selections for teams on the bubble to either punch their ticket to the dance or have their bubble burst come Selection Sunday.
Note: Odds are by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Will these teams make the NCAA tournament?
Ohio State Buckeyes — NO (-150)
The Buckeyes are in trouble. For a season that started out with promise after opening 10-3 with respectable losses to ranked opponents in North Carolina and Illinois, things have hit the skids in Columbus. They are a disappointing 6-5 since, including a résumé that includes an 1-7 mark against Quad 1 opponents (with the only win coming against a Northwestern team that is 2-12 in the Big Ten) and a Quad 2 loss to Pittsburgh. The Buckeyes have a chance to make an improvement with five Quad 1 regular-season games remaining, including an important nonconference game with Virginia on Saturday. They would need at least two wins there and hope that the committee sees the depth of the Big Ten as a strength for a team that may struggle to finish .500 in conference play. It’s an uphill battle for the Buckeyes to get my money.
UCLA Bruins — YES (-250)
It’s hard for me to see how the Bruins don’t get in. Currently, UCLA is 2-5 in Quad 1 games and there’s a world where the Bruins lose four of their five remaining Quad 1 regular-season games. But if they handle business in the other two other games, they would still have avoided any damaging losses this season. If somehow they pull off an upset against any of their four remaining opponents currently in the AP top 10 — two of which are home against Nebraska and Illinois — it will cement them in the field of 68. They will get additional help by their strength of schedule and the depth of the Big Ten, which could have as many as 11 teams dancing in March. This is likely the lowest price you’ll get on UCLA, so lock in now because one more big-time win will move this number dramatically.
Seton Hall Pirates — YES (+400)
The Pirates are certainly a team that controls its own destiny to snag an at-large bid. They are only 1-4 vs. Quad 1 opponents — which may be why they are in “Next Four Out” territory in the latest Bracketology — but three of the four losses came by 5 points or less. They have three more regular-season games that are currently Quad 1 opportunities (at Butler, at UConn and home vs. St. John’s). They would definitively need two wins there and a sweep of their remaining three games prior to the Big East tournament. A strong finish would give them more than 20 wins and an above-.500 conference record. Their nonconference strength of schedule won’t help, nor will a weaker Big East Conference this season, but I can make this bet and hedge in the games against UConn and St. John’s if needed.
Missouri Tigers — YES (+230)
The Tigers also control their fate. Following Wednesday night’s big win at Texas A&M, they are 3-4 vs. Quad 1, but are only 1-3 against Quad 2A, so the forecast isn’t ideal. Add in their nonconference strength of schedule of 344th on KenPom, and it looks even worse. But five of their seven remaining regular-season games are currently Quad 1 opportunities, with three of them at home where they are significantly better. Two of their remaining road games are against lesser SEC teams in Mississippi State and Oklahoma. If they go 4-3 down the stretch, they will end up 11-7 in SEC play and will have notched at least one more Quad 1 win. The depth of the SEC should help them and because they are a top-40 team in effective field goal percentage, I can back them to get on a run heading towards the end of the regular season.
Miami (OH) RedHawks — NO (+180)
The nation’s lone unbeaten team still faces some major challenges to get a bid in March if they don’t win the MAC tournament. I previously lauded the RedHawks as a great bet to stay undefeated and I still believe they can pull off the feat, but they aren’t even rated as the best team in the MAC, according to KenPom. That honor goes to Akron, who still sits 18 spots ahead of them in net rating. If the RedHawks fall in any of their seven remaining regular-season games — no opponent has a NET rating better than 147 — they may not be able to afford a second loss in the MAC tourney. If they manage to remain unbeaten before losing in the MAC title game, the committee will have to look at them differently given their record would by 33-1 at that point, albeit against the 355th-ranked schedule per KenPom. The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1999, so I think the better value bet is for Miami to finish the MAC regular season undefeated over making the NCAA tournament.
