College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction & Odds to Make the CFP – Week 10

A loud weekend off the field in college football overshadowed a quiet week of final results. Only Oklahoma suffered a notable upset, knocking the Sooners from No. 13 down to No. 18 in the AP Top 25. But losing as a 4.5-point favorite against a team almost certainly Playoff-bound is hardly a shocking upset.

Thus, these College Football Playoff projections remain largely unchanged, with only Mississippi moving up a bit, though the Rebels drag Georgia up in the standings with them.

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College Football Playoff bracket prediction

• 8) Mississippi vs. 9) Miami

• 6) Texas Tech vs. 11) Georgia Tech

• 7) Georgia vs. 10) Notre Dame

• BYES: 1) Ohio State, 2) Alabama, 3) Texas A&M, 4) Indiana

CFP Bracket analysis

FanDuel continues to consider the Ohio State Buckeyes so likely to make the College Football Playoff that there is no reason to even list them on that betting board, the only notable team left off those odds. As good as the defending national champions clearly are, this little anecdotal note is more a reflection of their remaining schedule than anything else.

To miss the Playoff, Ohio State would need to lose not only the regular-season finale at Michigan, but also at least one of the next four games, Big Ten matchups against Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers. Maybe any given Saturday catches up to the Buckeyes in the next month, but it snagging them twice would defy all conceivable logic.

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And even then, Ohio State may still make the Playoff at 10-2.

Also of note in that consideration: Indiana is listed at -8000 to make the Playoff, Texas A&M is at -4500, and Alabama sits at -1200.

That quartet is barreling toward each other in the Big Ten and SEC title games. One might wonder if the Big Ten championship game could feature a spread within a field goal, while the SEC counterpart may be an outright pick’em.

Thus, there is your top four for the College Football Playoff, thanks to conference commissioners’ overreacting this past offseason and removing the need to win a conference championship to receive a first-round Playoff bye.

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That same overreaction helps justify keeping Oregon ahead of Texas Tech, with ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings positioning the Ducks as both the third-best team in the Big Ten and in the country. But the Red Raiders winning the Big 12 and likely finishing the season 12-1 should keep them ahead of Georgia and Mississippi.

Remember, the Bulldogs beat the Rebels a couple of weeks ago. That needs to hold some weight. As long as they finish with the same 11-1 record, Georgia will remain ahead of Mississippi in the Playoff’s rankings, first released one week from Tuesday.

If the Rebels move up thanks to their upset at Oklahoma, then the Bulldogs also benefit. A week ago, this space projected Mississippi as the No. 10 seed, but that trusted the Sooners to give the Rebels a second loss. Alas. Now likely to finish the season 11-1 with a more impressive win than anything 11-1 Miami or 10-2 Notre Dame would claim, Mississippi leapfrogs them both.

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The Hurricanes may finish 11-1 and still miss the ACC title game. However, they beat the Irish in the season opener, and that result alone makes this pecking order rather clear.

If Georgia Tech wins the ACC title game and finishes 12-1, it will rise in the final bracket, but the Yellow Jackets have a bad habit of playing down to opponents — blowing out Syracuse in this post-Steve Angeli stretch should not embolden anyone’s faith. Consider this No. 11 slot outright doubt in Georgia Tech to remain consistent.

The Group of Five guaranteed berth will almost certainly go to the American champion, and Memphis beating South Florida last weekend throws that race into a bit more chaos. Only Tulane and Navy are unbeaten in the conference, and let’s give deference to Jon Sumrall’s coming SEC audition.

That is, of course, tongue-in-cheek. The more earnest thought is that while the Midshipmen’s style of play helps them keep games close when overmatched, it also keeps games close when they have a decisive edge. Navy may be caught by variance in a game with few possessions, just as it tries to catch favorites by variance in games with few possessions.

Meanwhile, the Green Wave only have one conference game of genuine note, heading to Memphis in two weeks. The winner likely will hold pole position to be the Group of Five Playoff representative until conference championship weekend.

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here