Late in the first half of Duke’s recent game against Georgia Tech, Blue Devils star Cooper Flagg suffered an ankle sprain so gruesome that he had to be helped off the court in a wheelchair. Five years ago, losing college basketball’s biggest draw to a heart-stopping injury on the eve of the NCAA Tournament would have had Duke fans death-spiraling along with the game’s corporate stakeholders. So why do those fans seem so relieved?
For one thing, it looks as if the freshman will be fit for Duke’s first-round game on Friday. For another, he could be at Duke for a while yet: a scary injury is no longer a spur for talented college players to turn professional and make money while they still can. That all changed in July 2021, when the NCAA allowed college athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness (NIL), and make money while they’re still students. By letting go of one of its foundational tenets (the notion that “amateurs” should not be paid), the NCAA now has its member schools scrambling to build sponsorship war chests to lure top talent. The athletes, for so long the biggest losers in the NCAA’s billion-dollar amateur system, are finally making gains, meaning they are less inclined to turn professional as soon as possible.
Perhaps no college basketball player has benefited from the system more than the 18-year-old Flagg, who scored endorsement deals with New Balance and Gatorade before putting on a Duke uniform. Altogether, his $4.8m NIL valuation trails only University of Texas quarterback Arch Manning’s $6.5m portfolio.
It’s why so many people are all relaying the same message to Flagg, who projects as the top pick in this year’s NBA draft: pro ball can definitely wait. “I mean, if I’m the NCAA or the ACC, I’m figuring out an NIL deal to keep that dude in school, because he is everything that’s right about our game,” Illinois coach Brad Underwood said after a blowout loss to Flagg’s team in February.
Quentin Richardson, a 13-year NBA veteran turned ESPN analyst, considered the Duke star’s dismal prospects if he does go pro this year. “If I’m Cooper Flagg, I’m not sure I want to go to the Washington Wizards,” he said. “That’s what’s waiting on him, and that’s purgatory.” As much as top college prospects accept the very likely possibility of being drafted by a bad NBA team, the new NIL system gives them the power to stay in school if an exceptionally terrible team looks likely to get the No 1 pick – and the lottery-leading Wizards, who have only made the playoffs once in the last six years, would certainly qualify.
And Flagg has admitted he has considered the idea of staying in school for another year. “I still feel like a kid, this is the only way I’ve ever known college,” Flagg said. “I really wouldn’t know how kids felt before.”
Whoever winds up this year’s No 1 pick is projected to make $12m as a rookie. That’s around $7m more than Flagg would make if he stays at Duke but, as ridiculous as it may sound, that’s not a huge amount for someone who is likely to make hundreds of millions of dollars in the NBA if he fulfills his vast potential. Rutgers swingman Ace Bailey – who scored a Nike brand deal as a high school senior – is another talented prospect who does not appear to be in a rush to turn pro. And an extra year in college will allow them to get stronger and develop their skills before being thrown into a league with some of the best athletes in the world.
Not that staying in school guarantees success. Kyle Filipowski, who preceded Flagg at Duke, successfully leveraged his popularity with Blue Devils fans into NIL deals with Dunkin’ Donuts and T-Mobile. The six-figure deals may not have been life-changing for Filipowski, but they did give him that extra bit of breathing room to consider the finality of leaving school after his freshman year. Though Filipowski projected as a first-round selection, he returned to Duke for his sophomore season before the Utah Jazz drafted him in the second round. He has spent a good chunk of this season going back and forth between G-League assignments. His move from college standout to borderline NBA player just goes to show how tough the transition to pros can be, even for college standouts. Zion Williamson was even more hyped than Flagg during his own time at Duke, but has often struggled with injury and form since he was drafted No 1 overall in 2019.
The game has also changed for those are unlikely to ever become stars. Players farther down the college bench at top schools reportedly make a minimum five figures from local deals, school merchandise, camps and clinics, and social media partnerships. For the first time in college basketball history, players who either don’t have major money-making opportunities waiting for them in pro basketball as future pros or don’t figure to keep playing after college can finally explore their athletic earning potential while it’s peaking. But the NIL revolution wouldn’t have been possible without college basketball players leading the way.
The paradigm shift started with Ed O’Bannon, a former March Madness hero at UCLA, leveling a class-action antitrust lawsuit against the NCAA for using his likeness as well as those of other former players for a video game in 2008. In his lawsuit, O’Bannon argued that the student-athletes should be eligible for compensation in exchange for commercial use of their image. At the time it seemed as if the lawsuit would linger in the system for years without a clear resolution. But when a judge ruled for O’Bannon et al in 2014, it was only a matter of time before the amateur era of college sports was brought to a resounding end.
But that doesn’t mean the litigation is over. Far from it. In January, the attorneys general of Tennessee and Virginia filed a federal lawsuit in response to a potential NIL recruiting violation involving University of Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava – a top recruit at the center of a multi-million dollar NIL market. This month, the states announced a proposed settlement that would allow recruits to negotiate their own NIL deals before they enroll in school. (Under the current setup, a high school athlete either drafts a qualified third party to negotiate on their behalf, as Flagg did with the powerful Hollywood agency CAA, or the schools dictate terms after securing the player’s commitment.) If the settlement is approved, the NCAA will stop penalizing schools that use NIL as a recruiting inducement. Next month could see the settlement of another major case, House vs NCAA, that would pave the way for schools to begin directly paying players rather than through endorsements.
The defeats in the court of law ultimately serve college basketball over the long term. With more incentives to stay in school than ever, players get to build their brands in relative comfort while the NCAA leverages the name recognition for TV ratings and ticket sales. It means even the NCAA isn’t starting from scratch again if Flagg doesn’t play again this year. And it means Flagg has time to enjoy everything the college experience has to offer. “Go have fun,” Underwood suggested. “Chase a girl. I get the whole [NBA draft] thing. That’s slotted, he’s going to make what he is.”
Of course it wouldn’t be a surprise if Flagg stuck with the plan to turn pro after this season. It’s just a relief that he and his peers finally have the freedom to explore their options.
