There is no questioning the unreal levels of talent Shane van Gisbergen possesses on road and street courses. And the NASCAR world has now learned what happens when you take a three-time Supercars champion at the top of his game, and place him in a stock car.
SVG won on debut in 2023 at the Chicago Street Course in a feat not seen in over 60 years. After going full-time with Trackhouse in 2025, he was near unstoppable on the road and street courses. He won from pole in Mexico City, Chicago, and Sonoma. He started on the front row and won at Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval. He led 278 of 484 laps in those fives races — 57%.
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So, what happened at the Circuit of the Americas? It was SVG’s second Cup start at the Hermann Tilke-designed Formula 1 track, but his first with Trackhouse. In 2024, he finished 20th at COTA with Kaulig in a part-time schedule
In 2025, now fully immersed in the Trackhouse program, he started sixth, led 23 laps, but finished right where he started in the end. Interestingly, this race has also eluded him in the NASCAR O’Reilly Series as well. In the 2024 NOAPS race at COTA, he was very strong and led 20 laps after starting from the front row. However, he and Austin Hill came to blows in the battle for the win, which allowed Kyle Larson to pass them both. SVG crossed the line second, but was sent back to 27th for a track limits violation.
Shane van Gisbergen leads the field, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Shane van Gisbergen leads the field, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
But 2026 will surely be his best shot yet as he aims to continue his historic road course win streak. The Supercars ace will be running both the O’Reilly and Cup races, and he now has a full season of Cup under his belt. He also just earned his best oval finish yet a few days ago, placing sixth at Atlanta. Momentum is with SVG, and that Atlanta showing will put him in the preferred qualifying group for the COTA race weekend.
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It’s also worth noting that NASCAR changed the layout ahead of the 2025 race and is now running a shortened version of the COTA course. But looking throughout the field, who has the best shot of dethroning SVG and taking his road course crown before he can check COTA off his win list?
Who could challenge SVG at COTA?
Past winners in the Next Gen era: Christopher Bell (2025); William Byron (2024); Tyler Reddick (2023); Ross Chastain (2022).
Best average finish at COTA:
1. Tyler Reddick — 4.6
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2. Alex Bowman — 5.2
3. Ross Chastain — 5.6
Best average start at COTA:
1. Tyler Reddick — 2.2
2. Chase Elliott — 8.0
3. Daniel Suarez — 92.
Most laps led at COTA:
1. William Byron — 71
2. Kyle Busch — 54
3. Tyler Reddick — 53
Most poles at COTA:
1. Tyler Reddick — 2
2. William Byron – 2
3. Ryan Blaney – 1
Daytona 500 winner Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota
Daytona 500 winner Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota
Top favorite beyond SVG: Without question, Reddick is likely the No. 1 threat to SVG this weekend. He just won the Daytona 500 and Atlanta Cup races, and is attempting to win three consecutive races to open the 2026 season. At COTA, he leads the entire field with an average finish of 4.6. In five starts, he has two poles, four top fives and a victory in 2023. His worst finish ever at COTA is ninth, and no driver has more top fives and top tens there than the driver of the #45 Toyota.
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The defending winner: Bell’s 2026 season is off to a rough start, and he sits 31st in the standings after wrecks at Daytona and Atlanta. He is in need of a rebound, and COTA could be the perfect place. He’s not just the defending winner at COTA, but the only driver with three podium finishes at the road course. In fact, he’s never finished lower than third in any COTA race where he actually reached the checkered flag.
The great unknown: Connor Zilisch is SVG’s teammate, and a driver everyone will be watching closely this weekend. He was a star on the road courses in the O’Reilly Series, and even bested SVG in a couple of tense head-to-head fights between the two. But this is the Cup Series, and Zilisch still has a steep learning curve ahead of him. Even still, he will be a driver to watch, and showed good pace in his Cup debut at COTA one year ago before a mid-race wreck. Albeit very different cars, but the teenager did win the O’Reilly race at COTA last year too, leading 26 of 65 laps.
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