Is there a point to diving deep into the NASCAR Cup Series standings this early in the season?
After all, by the time we return to Daytona International Speedway for the regular-season finale, the list probably will look completely different.
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RELATED: Cup standings | Phoenix entry list
That doesn’t make the current situation any less jaw-dropping, though. According to Racing Insights, eight of the 16 playoff drivers from 2025 are currently below The Chase cutoff line. That list includes some championship favorites.
2025 Playoff Drivers Outside of a Chase Position in 2026
|
Driver |
Rank |
Points behind |
|---|---|---|
|
Ross Chastain |
20 |
4 |
|
Denny Hamlin |
23 |
8 |
|
Christopher Bell |
24 |
9 |
|
Chase Briscoe |
27 |
22 |
|
Josh Berry |
28 |
23 |
|
Austin Cindric |
31 |
29 |
|
Austin Dillon |
34 |
33 |
|
Alex Bowman |
36 |
45 |
Stats courtesy Racing Insights
Something has to give, and it could happen in the next set of races on more typical tracks (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Darlington, Martinsville). After that stretch, we’ll pull up to the Easter break with a better understanding of where things stand.
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However, what’s amazing right now is that if The Chase started today, Joe Gibbs Racing would be shut out of any championship hopes. That’s right, the best JGR driver in the standings happens to be Ty Gibbs in 17th place, three points behind RFK Racing’s Ryan Preece for the final Chase transfer spot.
Where are Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, you say? They’re 126, 127 and 140 points behind leader Tyler Reddick.
The good news is Bell, Gibbs and Hamlin are coming off top-10 finishes at Circuit of The Americas. Plus, the team has a strong track record at Phoenix; JGR has led 56% of the laps there over the last four races (701 of 1,255), and Bell has won each of the last two spring races.
Briscoe, who has only one top-10 finish in the last five Phoenix races, has a win there; his first in Cup back in 2022 for Stewart-Haas Racing. Meanwhile, Hamlin has two wins at Phoenix, albeit in 2012 and 2019, as he tries to exorcise the demons from last fall’s championship heartbreak at the track.
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MORE: Phoenix schedule | Buy tickets
On the other side of the equation, everything is coming up desert roses for 23XI Racing. That’s what happens when your average finish is 1.0 through the first three races, like it is for Reddick.
With race wins worth more this season (55 points), the gap of 70 points between Reddick in first and teammate Bubba Wallace in second is the same as the gap between second (Wallace) and 27th (Briscoe) in the standings.
Wallace has been strong in his own right, though, with his 9.7 average finish trailing only Reddick and Chase Elliott (7.3) thus far. Wallace is also tied with Ryan Blaney for the most stage points this season at 34.
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But there are others who are enjoying high times as well. The biggest improvement in average finish compared to last year is by Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger: 13.3 versus 28.3.
Daniel Suârez’s 14.3 average finish for Spire Motorsports through three races is much better than last year’s 27.3 with Trackhouse Racing. Suárez and Allmendinger sit seventh and eighth in the standings.
Best Average Finish in 2026 (through three races)
|
Driver |
Average finish |
|---|---|
|
Tyler Reddick |
1.0 |
|
Chase Elliott |
7.3 |
|
Bubba Wallace |
9.7 |
|
Joey Logano |
12.0 |
|
Shane van Gisbergen |
12.7 |
|
AJ Allmendinger |
13.3 |
|
Brad Keselowski |
14.0 |
|
Daniel Suárez |
14.3 |
Stats courtesy Racing Insights
As they say, though, enjoy the fun while it lasts. This week could be a case of returning to normalcy. Several big names come into Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) wielding big numbers.
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Ryan Blaney won last November here and has finished in the top two in five of the last seven races at Phoenix.
The Hendrick Motorsports duo of William Byron and Kyle Larson also could get back into business this week. Byron has an average running position of 4.9 at Phoenix in the Next Gen car, and Larson has three straight top-five finishes at Phoenix, which is the longest active streak.
This might be the perfect time for the sport’s heavy hitters to swing their big bats down in the land of Spring Training, where the tools of ignorance apply to a catcher’s equipment but certainly not to this exercise, which has formed a baseline for future comparisons.
