Do The Penguins Need To Trade Rickard Rakell?

It’s that time of year again, folks! The NHL trade floodgates have officially opened, and with that, rumors and movement will be abound.

And the case is no different for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Since the team is looking to compete and rebuild its prospect pool simultaneously, it’s probably safe to assume that they will be looking to move out some of their pending unrestricted free agent contracts – and some other high-value contracts.

So, The Hockey News – Pittsburgh Penguins site will take a look at each Penguins’ trade candidate, the pros and cons to trading them, and the likelihood that they’re moved prior to the Mar. 7 trade deadline – as well as some potential landing spots.

Next up: forward Rickard Rakell.

The case for a trade

This seems like a no-brainer, right?

The 31-year-old Rakell is on pace for a career year in terms of numbers. He currently owns 25 goals and 48 points, and he is on pace for 37 goals and 70 points, which would best his previous career-highs of 34 and 69, respectively, set with the Anaheim Ducks in 2017-18. He’s also being deployed on Team Sweden’s first line for the 4 Nations Face-off – despite being a late injury replacement.

Being that he’s 31, on pace for a career-best season, and on what is now – with the salary cap rising signficantly – a bargain contract at $5 million average annual value for three more seasons, the Penguins should, theoretically, be able to fetch a very good return for the sniper. There are not too many 30-plus goal-scorers who will be making $5 million on the open market anymore, and teams will pay up for a known goal-scorer at that price.

His power play prowess – he has five power play goals and 12 power play points – should also earn him marks for any contending team looking for a right-side option on their power play unit.

And here’s the thing: When looking back at Rakell’s career trajectory, this is the player he is when he’s healthy and flanking an elite playmaker. During the prime of his career in Anaheim – when he played alongside Ryan Getzlaf and was mostly healthy – he registered his two career-best seasons from 2016-18. He had some injury and nutrition issues in the following three seasons, and his production declined as a result.

Then, Rakell was traded to Pittsburgh at the 2022 trade deadline, and he found his form again. He played his first full season in 2022-23 and registered 28 goals and 60 points. He struggled again with injuries and a slow start in 2023-24 – and had a down year – before returning to form again this season alongside Sidney Crosby on a more permanent basis for the first time.

Given his murky injury history, it would make sense for GM and POHO Kyle Dubas to capitalize on a career season for Rakell. And if he goes to a contender and plays alongside an elite playmaking center, he won’t disappoint.

Because of Rakell’s “bargain” contract and term left – as well as his 30-goal production and goal-scoring history – he should be able to fetch a first-round pick as a starting point.

The case against a trade

There have been multiple reports – most recently one from Josh Yohe of The Athletic – suggesting that the Penguins are hesitant to deal Rakell.

And that’s understandable, given the Penguins’ situation.

Dubas has reiterated many times over at this point that the Penguins are attempting to rebuild on-the-fly. The moves he has made since last season’s trade deadline – when he dealt Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes for Michael Bunting, a package of NHL-ready prospects, and a pick that would end up being top defensive prospect Harrison Brunicke – have all corroborated this approach.

Most recently, he dealt defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O’Connor to the Vancouver Canucks for a return that involved two NHLers in Danton Heinen and Vincent Desharnais, Swedish forward prospect Melvin Fernstrom, and a conditional first-round pick that Vancouver acquired from the New York Rangers in the blockbuster J.T. Miller trade. He has expressed that the Penguins can use that first-round pick – which will, likely, either be a mid-late 2025 pick or a 2026 pick – to either draft an elite talent or trade for one.

Given this extra asset that the Penguins now have, they may not necessarily have to sacrifice their best scoring winger for a good young NHL talent. And – if the Penguins’ plan is truly to rebuild on-the-fly – trading him now may not be such a “no-brainer.”

Yes, the Penguins could leverage both Rakell and that first-rounder together to acquire an elite young player, and that is definitely feasible. But Dubas is probably also aware that taking Rakell out of the equation for this team severely hampers the Penguins’ chances of competing in the near-term.

If that is their goal – which, it appears to be – they have Rakell under control for three more seasons. This production is the player Rakell is when he’s healthy and playing alongside someone like Crosby. If the Penguins can use that extra first to acquire a young player – and keep Rakell – Pittsburgh will simply have more talent on this roster sooner, and they are more likely to compete with Crosby still in Pittsburgh.

They’ll also have their first young crop of prospects making an impact next season. They’ll have some money to spend in free agency, should they choose to.

Keeping Rakell around – even for another season – likely doesn’t tank his value too much, and it gives the team a much better chance at competing within the next one to two seasons, which is literally what a rebuild on-the-fly is.

The verdict: Keep… for now.

It’s understandable why the Penguins are in a good position to move on from Rakell right now. But – simply put – doing so would be a significant blow to their plan of rebuilding on-the-fly.

The truth is – in these situations – you cannot deal everyone. The Penguins already have more picks than any team in hockey over the next three drafts, and they have 15 picks in the top-three rounds in those drafts. They have NHL-ready prospects on-the-verge, with more prospect and draft talent on the way.

Dealing Rakell for futures just doesn’t seem to sit right for a team that’s trying to compete within one to two years. Anyone thinking the plan is to compete in three or four years does not have a pulse for what a rebuild on-the-fly is – especially when you consider that the Penguins are already headed for Year Three of missing the postseason and are, technically, already a full year into their rebuild on-the-fly.

If the Penguins choose to deal Rakell, a young NHLer or a top, near NHL-ready prospect needs to be coming the other way – and Dubas is, reportedly, asking for a very high premium. That’s the only way it really makes sense at this juncture, and expecting such a return at the trade deadline is – to put it plainly – a bit unrealistic, especially since the teams interested in his services won’t want to pay that return in the midst of a playoff chase.

For this reason – and for the reason of seeing where and when that conditional first-round pick will fall – waiting until at least the summer makes sense. And if the Penguins choose to keep him into next season? That also makes sense, given his talent, ability to help bridge the rebuild on-the-fly, and contract that is unlikely to completely tank in value over the next year or so.

Trading Rakell now may make some degree of sense for an overpay and for the right return. But, no, it’s not catastrophic if they decide to wait. In fact, it may end up working out better for the rebuild on-the-fly they’re trying to execute if they decide to keep Rakell around for just a bit longer.