Eight MLB burning questions/predictions post-winter meetings

Mets owner Steve Cohen ignited the action early at the winter meetings. The hot stove has been burning since.

The teams who whiffed on Juan Soto have gotten busy. Both the free-agent and trade markets are hot, pitchers are getting paid and salaries are well-exceeding initial projections.

The Yankees (Max Fried) and Red Sox (Garrett Crochet) found their new aces, but Corbin Burnes remains available, while Roki Sasaki has a big decision ahead that isn’t expected to be announced until the week of Jan. 15. Willy Adames has found his new home in San Francisco, but Alex Bregman is still out there. The Cubs found their much-needed star in Kyle Tucker, but the top outfielders behind Soto are still there for the taking, and none of the big first basemen have moved yet.

After a busy winter meetings in Dallas, here are eight lingering questions and some guesses at what could happen next.

1. Beyond going for Sasaki, are other big moves ahead for Dodgers?

The Dodgers have made it clear that Sasaki will be a major priority, but whether it’s the NPB star, a top relief arm, another corner outfielder or all three, the reigning champs likely have more to come this winter after signing Blake Snell, Michael Conforto and Blake Treinen.

“My goal is to not buy in July,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has repeated multiple times this offseason. “I am setting that out there right now. My goal is to do everything we can right now to not buy in July. It is terrible.”

The Dodgers had to do that at the 2024 trade deadline after watching their seemingly deep pitching staff crumble. The additions of Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech were vital pieces in their road to a championship, but the former is a free agent. Postseason standout Walker Buehler is, too.

They expect Tyler Glasnow, who missed the postseason run with an elbow sprain, to be healthy for the start of next season. He has already started throwing again, and Snell, Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto should make for a formidable top three. But most of the rotation, which is likely to feature six pitchers, brings health concerns.

Shohei Ohtani should be back on the mound next season, but it likely won’t be when the Dodgers open their season March 18 in Japan. Ohtani is expected to be ready to hit then, but it is “very unlikely” he’ll be pitching then, according to manager Dave Roberts. Ohtani is throwing out to 60 feet as he starts to ramp back up, but he’s coming off labrum surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder, and the Dodgers will want to control his innings as he works his way back from his second elbow reconstruction.

“Obviously, we don’t want him to throw 225 innings,” general manager Brandon Gomes said. “So, we’ve just got to kind of see where this throwing program goes, how he continues to feel, have these conversations like we do with most of our guys. What we feel like is most important is that he is ready to pitch at his highest level when the games matter the most. Early-season games are very important, but we feel like if we can get him to a position where he is peaking towards the end of the season, that is the ideal scenario.”

Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin should be good to go this spring, but they both missed the 2024 season. The Dodgers still intend to bring Clayton Kershaw back, but he underwent knee and foot surgeries in November.

If all goes to plan, they should be able to field one of the best rotations in the sport. But as they found out last year, it rarely does. So, whether it’s Sasaki or someone else, they could look to add starting pitching. Another addition could also happen in the bullpen.

The Dodgers brought back Treinen and could use him as their closer, as they did in the postseason, but they’re still interested in adding one of the top available relief arms on the market. Devin Williams‘ trade to the Yankees removes one intriguing option, but there are plenty left in free agency, including Tanner Scott.

“If we can add an additional reliever, that helps increase the chances of us not going to market in July,” Friedman said. “So, yeah, I could see us looking to do that. Now, it doesn’t mean we’ll be able to, but I could see us looking.”

And then there’s the outfield vacancy left by outfielder Teoscar Hernández, who remains a candidate to return but will draw plenty of interest from the teams who missed out on Soto.

The addition of Conforto on a one-year deal provides the Dodgers some insurance, but it won’t preclude them from looking to add more help. The Dodgers had reached out about Conforto last trade deadline. Now, after securing him this week, they see him as someone who can play either left or right.

“I think, again, there’s different ways we can get at this,” Friedman said. “We can have a team that has a little bit more power. We can have a team that makes a little bit more contact. We can have a team that plays a little bit better defense. There’s just a lot of different ways to get at value and production and winning baseball games. So, with that, it opens some things up, and there’s interesting guys on the market — either trade or free-agent market — and a number of different things that we’re kind of looking at.”

Prediction: Dodgers sign Tanner Scott or find another way to further bolster the bullpen

2. Will there be an L.A. reunion with Teoscar Hernández?

Hernández has expressed a desire to return to Los Angeles and called the Dodgers “the priority” after serving as a key cog in the middle of their championship lineup.

That remains the likeliest conclusion as the two sides remain engaged about a potential return, but his market should heat up after outfield-needy teams missed out on Juan Soto.

“He had a really good year,” Friedman said. “He put himself in a great position, and I know that he has talked about wanting to [come back], I know that we have talked about wanting him to. So again, that’s helpful, but it’s not everything. He and his family get to go through the interest and figure out what makes the most sense for them. So, while we’re hopeful, at the same time, if he ends up signing somewhere else, we have no choice but to wish him well, and on a personal level we’ll be really happy for him. And professionally, not so much.”

Boston was interested in Hernández last winter before he signed with the Dodgers. The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees would all make sense for Hernández after their failed pursuits of Soto. The Phillies could be another potential landing spot given their need for more outfield pop.

But Hernández played a major role in the Dodgers’ success last season and was a perfect fit both on the field, where he was an All-Star, and in the clubhouse, where he struck an immediate relationship with Ohtani and was a seed-throwing joy. Roberts said it would be tough to have to replace his presence in both regards.

“There’s not a whole lot of guys that can start 157, 158 ball games and post, and then to be that productive,” Roberts said. “Then you layer on being in a big market, helping us win a championship. So, those players don’t come around very often. But obviously Teo has put himself in a very good position as a free agent and had a very productive year. So, he’s got some decisions to make as well. He’s going to kind of suss those out. Yeah, I just … it would be hard for me not to see him coming back.”

Hernández took a one-year contract in Los Angeles last season hoping to play for a winner and re-establish his value. He went from posting a .741 OPS in 2023 in Seattle to an .840 OPS in 2024 in a bounce-back year in Los Angeles.

More multi-year offers should await this time.

“We’ll continue to look for ways to improve our team,” Gomes said, “and I’m sure have additional conversations there.”

Prediction: Hernández returns to Dodgers on three-year deal

3. How much further does the Yankees’ “Plan B” go?

Max Fried was a nice start after missing out on Soto, even if eight years is a long time for a 31-year-old pitcher with forearm issues. It also gave them a glut of starting pitching options, which they’ve already used to swing a deal for Devin Williams.

Getting a new ace and a shutdown closer helps erase the bitter taste of losing the Soto sweepstakes, but I’d expect more ahead. For them to fully salvage their offseason, they need a more impactful force (or two) in the lineup.

They’ve been linked to Cody Bellinger, and now that Tucker went to the Cubs, that fit seems to make more and more sense given his left-handed bat — he hit 18 homers last year, but it would’ve been 24 if he played all his games at Yankee Stadium last year — and ability to play both center field and first base. If they could get him and sign Bregman or Christian Walker — they need a corner infield upgrade, and I like the fit better with Walker than Pete Alonso — that would go a long way toward easing their fans’ pain.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Tucker trade — which netted the Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes, who should have a field day with the Crawford Boxes — impacts Houston’s willingness to get a deal done with Bregman. The Astros could theoretically still sign Bregman and move Paredes to first base, but it looks like a move to protect themselves if Bregman gets an offer they’re unwilling to match. Owner Jim Crane has never committed more than $151 million to a player, so if he were to bring Bregman back, he’d have to go where he hasn’t before.

If the Yankees don’t get Bregman, perhaps they get into the Nolan Arenado mix.

Prediction: Trade for Cody Bellinger and sign Alex Bregman or Christian Walker

4. Speaking of … does Nolan Arenado get dealt?

The Cardinals have already made it clear their intention is to trade Arenado. Now, it’s about finding a fit.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, and his agent Joel Wolfe said the ideal destination is a place “that’s going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.” However, the Southern California native reportedly has the Angels among his initial six-team wish list, so maybe a winning culture isn’t the only requirement. Still, the Angels have been among the more active teams in free agency this winter, and the fit would make sense considering their lack of infield stability.

Wolfe said Arenado is willing to move around and play first base, but that wouldn’t seem to make much sense considering his power has fallen precipitously in recent years and his reliable glove at the hot corner is what still makes him an attractive commodity. This could be a fit for a team that misses out on Bregman.

Prediction: Traded to Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Tigers or Angels

5. Can the Orioles get their next ace?

Getting Tyler O’Neill is a start, but with Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander becoming free agents, this doesn’t look like a team that’s better than it was a year ago barring another leap forward from their young guys.

They need an ace, but how much is the new ownership group willing to pay? We don’t know the answer yet. It’ll probably cost around $250 million to keep Burnes, who stands alone as the only member of the top tier of starting pitching free agents still available (apart from Roki Sasaki).

They could shop in the next tier and look at Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea or Walker Buehler, but the bigger swings would come on the trade front. With all the young talent still in place, maybe they get their next Burnes, well, the same way they got Burnes.

Prediction: Trade for Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray

6. Do the Giants have another splash ahead?

The Giants needed more power in the middle of the lineup and help up the middle defensively, so the Willy Adames fit made sense. But to really contend, they can’t be done yet. Adding an ace or another imposing force in the lineup feels like a necessity.

Which puts them in a difficult spot.

They don’t have a particularly robust farm system, so is dealing someone like top prospect Bryce Eldridge or a package involving Camilo Doval, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Kyle Harrison the right move? Of course, if they’re willing to spend, that’s not a question they have to answer. Even with Adames, their payroll is almost $40 million under what it was last year, with Conforto, Snell and Mark Canha off the books. That’s enough for one more big splash.

My guess is that they move forward in their attempt to start the Buster Posey era with a bang.

Prediction: Sign Corbin Burnes or trade for Cody Bellinger

7. Will the Mariners trade from their strength?

The Mariners don’t want to deal someone from their loaded big-league rotation. But at some point, that’s probably what it will take to land the kind of substantial offensive addition they need. They can’t just add on the margins if they want to seriously contend, and it’s a tough place to convince a free-agent hitter to play.

If they’re not willing to considerably up the payroll, it might require an uncomfortable decision on Luis Castillo or possibly Emerson Hancock. They’re in a winnable division, and after last year’s disappointment, they need to find a way to add more infield pop.

Prediction: Trade for Alec Bohm, Triston Casas, Cody Bellinger, Josh Naylor or Yandy Díaz

8. Which potential contenders take a needed big swing?

No prediction here; just an observation. As much action as there is going on in New York and Los Angeles, there are a lot of teams on the playoff fringes with work to do. The Mariners are certainly one of them, but that list goes far beyond Seattle.

Garrett Crochet is a great start in the Boston retool, but are Red Sox owners willing to spend what it takes to be relevant again? Andrés Giménez is a terrific defender, but will the Blue Jays address their offensive shortcomings and/or land the superstar that has eluded them?

The Reds addressed their rotation but could use an impact outfield bat to leap forward in the NL Central. The D-backs could use pitching help and a Walker replacement if they’re going to compete with the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. The Tigers need more right-handed pop in the infield to build on their surprise playoff run. And are the Twins going to do anything?

The winter meetings laid the groundwork, but plenty still lies ahead.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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