Working at a historical football factory like Ohio State has its built-in advantages. The name brand affords a head coach many things other schools just can’t. As such, the Buckeyes are able to recruit nationally because of the history, tradition, facilities, and track record of sending players to the NFL and winning championships.
So, we shouldn’t be surprised when a coach comes to the banks of the Olentangy and continues the winning ways, right? That’s the thought, and there’s many that have bought into that “born on third base” narrative parroted by many. And while there’s some obvious truth to it, a coach still has to take all of those advantages and bring everyone and everything together to achieve championship-level goals.
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ESPN set out to measure the best coaches in college football using stats and some SP+ metrics to see who the best coaches in the country have been over the last twenty years, and for Ohio State, the two guys that fall into that mix are Urban Meyer and Ryan Day. It’s one thing to say a guy is a great coach by tangible things; it’s another to measure those things in an analytical way to arrive at a conclusion.
So, first things first, ESPN measured the best coaches with different parameters. First, it looked at the coaches who were in the profession for at least nine years. That means Meyer is included, but Day is not since he’s only entering his seventh season now. Meyer’s record speaks for itself, and so do three national titles, but with SP+ included, there are also things like results over the expected and more that went into making the sausage. With all of that said, where did Meyer land?
The overall ratings are based on 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average. And yeah, Meyer isn’t as high as most would have him, ranking No. 5 on the last twenty years for guys that have coached more than nine years. In fact, he comes in at No. 5 on the list with some guys you probably wouldn’t hire ahead of him.
Here’s how things break down according to the ESPN formula, straight off of ESPN.com.
|
Name |
Years |
Avg. vs Baseline |
Avg. SP+ Rating |
Coach Rating |
|
1. Nick Saban |
17 |
10.7 |
30.9 |
18.8 |
|
2. Chris Peterson |
14 |
12.8 |
17.3 |
14.6 |
|
3. Kirby Smart |
9 |
6.0 |
27.0 |
14.4 |
|
4. Gary Pinkel |
11 |
12.5 |
16.3 |
14.0 |
|
5. Urban Meyer |
13 |
4.8 |
26.4 |
13.4 |
|
6. Jim Harbaugh |
13 |
8.5 |
19.1 |
12.7 |
|
7. Bob Stoops |
12 |
5.3 |
22.5 |
12.2 |
|
8. James Franklin |
14 |
7.3 |
18.1 |
11.6 |
|
9. Les Miles |
14 |
6.6 |
18.6 |
11.4 |
|
10. Dabo Swinney |
16 |
6.0 |
19.0 |
11.2 |
As you can see, Meyer has the third-best average SP+ Rating, but the baseline of coaching at Ohio State and the historical success didn’t give him much room to overachieve, so he has the lowest average vs. baseline metric, which drags him down to the No. 5 spot. Do with that and debate as you will. I know many would take Meyer over Peterson and Pinkel, but again, numbers only tell part of a story and not the complete picture.
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But what about today’s active coaches, since a lot of these guys are no longer in the profession? ESPN also set out to measure that by breaking the current FBS coaches into two groups: first, those who have been coaching at least four years, and those who have only been coaching one to three years.
Day fits into that first category, and according to the formula, he is now considered the best current FBS head coach in college football.
Again, take a look at the top ten:
|
Name |
Years |
Avg. vs Baseline |
Avg. SP+ Rating |
Coach Rating |
|
Ryan Day, Ohio State |
6 |
6.1 |
30.4 |
15.8 |
|
Josh Heupel, Tennessee |
7 |
13.1 |
18.1 |
15.1 |
|
Kirby Smart, Georgia |
9 |
6.0 |
27.0 |
14.4 |
|
James Franklin, Penn State |
14 |
7.3 |
18.1 |
11.6 |
|
Dabo Swinney, Clemson |
16 |
6.0 |
19.0 |
11.2 |
|
Dan Mullen, UNLV |
13 |
7.2 |
15.9 |
10.7 |
|
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss |
13 |
7.2 |
13.0 |
9.5 |
|
Brian Kelly, LSU |
20 |
6.0 |
14.4 |
9.3 |
|
Jeff Traylor, UTSA |
5 |
13.5 |
1.5 |
8.7 |
|
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State |
20 |
4.7 |
13.8 |
8.3 |
Day has the strongest average SP+ Rating by a long shot, even better than Smart at Georgia. Again, the average above baseline isn’t a big number, but the fact that he inherited success from Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer, the 6.1 rating is pretty impressive. So yeah, case closed, Day is the best coach in college football today, right?
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Well, again, there are several ways to measure that, this is just one — albeit a little more creative than others we’ve seen.
By the way, though there are no Ohio State coaches on the one to three year analysis, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti (2) and Oregon’s Dan Lanning (4) appear on that list. That population is a little less meaningful because the sample size of the results is so small. Still, it looks like a who’s who of rising coaches, so we’ll let you check it out for yourself.
That’s it. There’s more to the article if you want to head on over and get more in-depth, but almost every metric out there continues to reinforce what we already know: Ohio State has had some great coaches and players, and the success we’ve seen on the field is as good as there is.
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN analytics ranks Ryan Day and Urban Meyer among other CFB coaches
