It’s nearly time for the Iowa Hawkeyes and Minnesota Golden Gophers to square off in Kinnick Stadium for the Floyd of Rosedale in a heavyweight rivalry game with looming Big Ten implications.
The Hawkeyes and Golden Gophers each sport identical 5-2 overall records that include a 3-1 mark in Big Ten conference action.
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While the teams are identical in the standings, the Iowa Hawkeyes are favored in this one, hovering north of a touchdown favorite at home. With the matchup approaching, ESPN looked into the Big Ten battle and provided a final analytical view with their pick and prediction.
Minneosta at Iowa
It’s really hard to beat the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been fighting over for 90 years. Iowa has held on to it (him?) for nine of the past 10 years.
Iowa is the projected favorite in this one, both because of home-field advantage and because the Hawkeyes can run the ball and defend the run. They’re 17th in rushing success rate, a massive upgrade over a couple of years ago, and though quarterback Mark Gronowski threw for just 68 yards in last week’s win over Penn State, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Iowa is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, not including sacks.
The ground game can be all that matters in an Iowa-Minnesota game, but Minnesota is putting a lot on redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey’s right arm, and he’s holding up mostly well despite an inefficient ground game (103rd in rushing success rate). The Gophers were also brilliant last week, sacking Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola nine times, getting a 16-for-20 performance from Lindsey and even getting 148 rushing yards from Darius Taylor in a 24-6 win.
Current line: Iowa -8.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 8.7 – Bill Connelly, ESPN
Like the spread, ESPN likes the Hawkeyes by more than a touchdown in this matchup with their offensive line that is mauling defenses for massive chunk yards in the ground game, paired with a defense that gets their chance against a younger quarterback.
Kickoff between Iowa and Minnesota for the Floyd of Rosedale is set for 2:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Oct. 25, from Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, and will be airing on CBS.
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This article originally appeared on Hawkeyes Wire: Iowa Football: ESPN provides analytics, prediction, pick vs. Minnesota
