The exhilirating win in the Round of 32 for the Iowa Hawkeyes over the Florida Gators has set them up with one of the best and most intriguing matchups of the Sweet 16. It is the third matchup of the year for the Hawkeyes against the rival Nebraska Cornhuskers.
After wins over Clemson and Florida, Iowa has returned to the second weekend of March Madness for the first time this century. Nebraska, who took down Troy and barely survived a buzzer-beater attempt from Vanderbilt, is in their first Sweet 16, as these are the program’s first two NCAA Tournament wins.
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With tipoff coming rapidly, ESPN took one final deep dive into the game and offered a prediction on who makes a trip to the Elite 8. ESPN’s analysts are split on who gets to keep dancing in March.
(9) Iowa vs. (4) Nebraska
7:30 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Nebraska, 66-63Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa, 65-60
How Iowa can advance to the Elite Eight: We have evidence on how Iowa can beat Nebraska (and vice versa). When the Hawkeyes beat the Cornhuskers on Feb. 17, Bennett Stirtz was relatively inefficient but still finished with 25 points in willing Iowa to a win. When the Hawkeyes lost to the Cornhuskers in the regular-season finale, he finished with 11 points on 10 shots. In the NCAA tournament, Stirtz has received plenty of help from his supporting cast, with Alvaro Folgueiras averaging 14.0 in two wins and Tavion Banks scoring 20 against Florida.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes have to avoid fouling. They ranked last in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate, and there was a noticeable gap in free throw attempts in the two games against Nebraska. When Iowa won, it was plus-6 at the free throw line. When Nebraska won, Iowa was minus-10.
How Nebraska can advance to Elite Eight: Nebraska picked up its first NCAA tournament win in program history last Thursday, then doubled its total in drama-filled fashion Saturday when Vanderbilt’s half-court heave rimmed out. What will the Cornhuskers need to do to win a third — against a team they split the regular-season series with during Big Ten play? Their success all year has been primarily predicated on two factors: 3-point shooting and defense.
They rank top 15 nationally in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points generated off 3-pointers. They have four players who made 50 or more 3s this season, and they’ll likely have to make double-digit 3s to win. When they beat Iowa on Feb. 17, they made 10 3s. When they lost, they were 5-for-24. Nebraska led the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to below 30% from 3-point range and forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of possessions. The Cornhuskers had far more success against Iowa when they forced Stirtz into a tough outing. — Borzello
Like the Florida game, Iowa needs to control the tempo and force Nebraska to take contested shots after playing long defensive possessions. Secondly, Bennett Stirtz has to find something. In two tournament games, he has shot poorly. Based on his track record, a regression back to his standard could be a good sign for the Hawkeyes.
Iowa was able to play physical and big against Florida, one of the best rebounding teams in America. That wasn’t due to the size of Iowa’s, but to effort and intensity. The Hawkeyes once again need that same effort against Nebraska.
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This article originally appeared on Hawkeyes Wire : ESPN shares final Iowa basketball vs. Nebraska Sweet 16 prediction
