In basketball tournaments, as in all-you-can-eat seafood buffets and trips to Vegas, there’s a point where “more” most definitely isn’t “better.” Forget “diminishing returns,” at some point the act of piling on only makes the entire enterprise measurably worse.
The NCAA men’s basketball tournament is now at that tipping point. You could argue, of course, that the men’s tournament passed that point a couple of expansions back, but we’re here at 68 now and we’re certainly not reducing the field.
CBS and Warner Brothers Discovery are in the first year of an eight-year extension that will pay the NCAA as much as a billion dollars a year through 2032. Naturally, rather than celebrate the annual ten-figure payday, there are many in the college sports realm who think, “Hey, if we can get $1 billion with 68 teams … what’s to stop us from adding another 68? And another after that? We’ll be rich!”
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Permanent up-and-to-the-right growth is a fairy tale, but that hasn’t stopped college athletics bureaucrats from chasing it. Expansion could come as soon as next year, and prior to this year’s Big 12 tournament, commissioner Brett Yormark didn’t even try to disguise the motivations behind it.
“I’m in favor of expansion to 76. I think that’s the right number,” he said. “I think there will be some decisions over the next 90 days, 60 days. I think the economics, candidly, have to work. CBS and TNT have a marquee asset with the tournament. I know they know that. But in order for us to expand, they have to come to the table and provide the right economics. No one wants to get diluted.”
The NCAA tournament is a solid-gold goose, one that the Powers That Be in college sports appear hell bent on melting down to cash in. Here’s what will be lost if — or, let’s be honest, when — expansion happens.
Merit for a season of hard work? Devalued
We’re already at such a bloated tournament that several teams of highly dubious postseason merit are winning acceptance. North Carolina’s visually gaudy record of 22-13 hides a miserable Quad 1 record of 1-12. Xavier, likewise, beefed up its 21 wins with inferior competition, posting just one win in its 10 Quad 1 games. Texas only managed to win a third of its 18 conference games. When you’re letting in marginal teams on name value alone, you’re tipping your hand.
Competitive balance? Not anymore
It goes without saying that the vast majority of the 68 schools in this year’s tournament have no prayer of winning the national championship. We dumped that “anyone can win!” theory in the trash decades ago. But the imbalance is even worse than that. Only three times in the 39-year history of the 64-plus-team NCAA tournament has a seed lower than fourth won the tournament: 2014 UConn (7th seed), 1988 Kansas (6th seed) and 1985 Villanova (8th seed). Expanding the tournament to more teams means either more play-in games (any expansion short of 96) or a field so watered down that you’ll never witness a big first-round upset again. If we’ve only seen two 16-seeds knock off 1-seeds in the 40 years of 64-plus teams, how long do you think it would take to see a 24-seed knock off a 1?
The regular season? Meaningless
Look, college basketball’s regular season is already watered down. For many, it’s a one-month sport. For those who do pay attention before March, expansion will be a bouncer at 2 a.m., telling everyone still hanging out they don’t have to go home, but they can’t stay here. ESPN could clone Dick Vitale a million times to hype Duke vs. North Carolina in January and the question would still be, “Why should I care?”
Increased brand awareness? Not for long
One of the arguments for expansion is that more slots = more opportunity for lesser-known schools to increase their visibility and, in turn, their brand value. A school’s name in a bracket leads to more awareness, more applications, more revenue. But that comes with both challenges — trying to outshine the other schools who also reached the tournament — and expectations — as in, ever-spiraling NIL and facility costs to keep pace with every other school. Nothing in college athletics is getting any cheaper, and very little of that money is funneling to the smallest schools.
Opportunity for more small schools to step onto the big stage? Guess again
One of the finest aspects of the tournament is the way that the High Points, McNeeses and Norfolk States of the world get at least one game to face off against the Dukes and UConns of the world. But an expansion of the field isn’t going to lead to more invitations for smaller schools.
Expansion is all about the money, the money, and also the money. And if you think the Big 12’s Yormark and his fellow mega-conference commissioners are looking to make more room for some precious little upstate school to get its One Shining Moment, I’ve got a stone-cold-lock 15-over-2 upset to sell you. The Sisters Of The Poor and the What-State-Is-That-In colleges of the world will get their lone conference bids, and they’ll be happy with those. Or else.
Reward for a thrilling March conference tournament run? No
On the off chance that the NCAA does start admitting more small schools into the tournament — or grows enough that there’s room for every damn Power 4 school, so might as well let in a couple more niblets — that will devalue the merit of the glory that is a conference tourney run.
Me, I’m a graduate of the College of William & Mary, which holds the distinction of being one of only four Division I schools never to reach the NCAA tournament. (The others: Army, The Citadel and St. Francis (N.Y.).) The only way William & Mary currently makes it into the tournament is to win the season-ending CAA tournament. And yet I don’t want William & Mary let in on some cheap-jack Participation Trophy-esque bid. If the NCAA lets in every team that can fog a mirror, where’s the merit in that? (Note: The team itself may feel differently.)
Put another way: If everybody gets an honor, it’s no longer an honor.
Ridiculously overwrought lawsuits over the selection committee’s biases? Oh, we’ll have plenty more of those
Look, one of the most ridiculous elements of college sports is the way that its bureaucracy functions a whole lot like badgers in a sack, which in turn leads to sanctimonious legal action from only marginally more functional government entities. Even though there are 68 teams in the NCAA tournament — and schools have had four-plus months to make their case for inclusion — we still have West Virginia’s governor calling the exclusion of his flagship university “a miscarriage of justice, and robbery at the highest level.” Include 128 schools, and you’ll hear whining from the 129th. The only solution: include all 352 Division I basketball schools … and then someone is going to whine that they didn’t get a bye.
We all know how this is going to shake out. You don’t need to be an investigative journalist to follow the money, and the money leads us right to an expanded tournament, with all that brings — more uncompetitive games, fewer upsets, more hype, less early drama. Like it or not, the tournament will expand, and soon. Bet on it — that’s the safest wager you’ll make all week.
