The fantasy baseball world never sleeps — and certainly not for us analysts.
As you know, way-too-early 2025 rankings are already live on the site, and, as is my traditional postseason routine, only days after the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their world championship, I was off to Phoenix, Arizona, to begin my scouting and draft preparation process at the annual First Pitch Arizona conference. It’s a meeting of the best minds in fantasy baseball, and with many of baseball’s top prospects available for scouting while playing in the Arizona Fall League, there are plenty of takeaways to help get an early edge on the competition for 2025.
Here are just a few of the key takeaways from my visit to Arizona:
Garrett Crochet: During his breakthrough 2024, he became one of the few pitchers (historically) who transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation and gained fastball velocity, his four-seamer going from a 96.2 mph average to 97.2 mph. Between that, his addition of a sweeper and the further introduction of a sinker to his repertoire beginning in August, Crochet has all of the ingredients of a pitcher who could take another step forward in 2025. That might manifest as a larger innings total (albeit with a lower strikeout rate), but even the latter skill spiked during August and September — note his second-best 36.8% rate among pitchers with at least as many as his 133 batters faced. Last Saturday’s “Player Spotlights” pitching panel was universally optimistic about Crochet — who, by the way, was fantasy’s SP28 — and his immediate future.
Breakout candidates: I was part of the “Player Spotlights” hitting panel, and across the two sessions, several proposed 2025 breakout candidates from my industry colleagues also appear on my own lists. Milwaukee Brewers OF Garrett Mitchell, a favorite of Rotowire’s Jeff Erickson, combines decent pop with elite speed, batting .276/.353/.645 with six homers and seven stolen bases over the team’s final 30 regular-season games. He should have a regular role for the 2025 team. Cleveland Guardians SP Gavin Williams, a frequent draft target of Pitcher List’s Nick Pollack, has elite extension and fastball velocity, as well as a curveball that can be a genuine strikeout pitch. He merely needs to put it all together at the big-league level. My personal pick is Boston Red Sox 1B Triston Casas, who hasn’t had much injury luck at this level but has potentially top-shelf skills in terms of both plate discipline and power.
In-game standouts: A pair of second basemen drew some eyeballs their way. Caleb Durbin, questing to set the single-season AFL record for stolen bases, swiped three bags and drew two walks in Saturday’s game, exhibiting a similar combination of patience and speed that makes him a much-rumored candidate for the New York Yankees‘ 40-man roster this winter. Gleyber Torres‘ impending free agency opens a dark horse opportunity for Durbin in 2025. Meanwhile, Thomas Saggese, who had a forgettable 18-game September “cup of coffee” for the St. Louis Cardinals, had three hits on Friday, including a double, to keep his AFL batting average over .400 and OPS above 1.000. Saggese has put up promising numbers in the high minors for the Cardinals since coming over in the 2023 deadline Jordan Montgomery trade, and he could be a factor for the 2025 team if they choose to move on from Nolan Arenado.
A new possible overall No. 1: News that Dodgers DH/SP and fantasy superstar Shohei Ohtani had undergone arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder, suffered on an attempted steal of second base in Game 2 of the World Series, didn’t break until after the conference’s conclusion, but there were enough whispers of concern throughout the weekend to suggest an impact upon the rankings. In ESPN leagues, with daily transaction norms, Ohtani’s value is considerably higher than it is offsite, where more leagues set lineups weekly or have greater restrictions on his usage. Still, there are inklings that he won’t be a universal No. 1 pick without glowing reports on his health entering spring training. In fact, in the First Pitch Arizona draft-and-hold league, Ohtani went third overall, after Bobby Witt Jr. (my preferred pick if I’m deliberately avoiding the Ohtani risk, which to be up-front I am not) and Gunnar Henderson.
Brent Rooker: Speaking of that draft-and-hold league, Rooker (DH for the Athletics and a player discussed in my Player Spotlight panel) went a shocking 15th overall. Judging by our panel discussion, I’m more bullish than most on Rooker’s prospects in Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, where the climate rather than the outfield dimensions fuel its hitter-friendly hopes. Rooker slugged 138 points higher on Barrels away from Oakland Coliseum than at home over the past two seasons, so I see reason to believe he could reach the 40-HR threshold, especially given his team’s new environs.
Red Sox rookies: Boston could be one of the more intriguing sources of rookie talent in 2025. Two prospects — OF Roman Anthony (No. 4 overall) and UT Kristian Campbell (No. 9) — went among the first nine picks of the First Pitch Rookie Draft, signaling they both could earn regular duty, despite a currently crowded Red Sox roster. Both have levels of plate discipline and extra-base ability that should be immediately appealing to points-league managers.
