Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … Tyrese Maxey averages 30 PPG
The Philadelphia 76ers remain a disappointing mess coming out of the All-Star break, as one never knows when brittle C Joel Embiid will suit up to play — perhaps not even Embiid himself. As for SF/PF Paul George, who’s not exactly durable himself, he still cannot find his way in this offense. You know what is working? PG/SG Maxey averaged 29.9 PPG in January (easily his best month of the season), and he was off to a better February start until his final game.
Maxey underachieved on offense in November/December, perhaps aiming to look like more of a team player in an offense with unreliable stars and so many new rotation faces. Since then, coinciding a tad with rookie SG Jared McCain wrecking a knee, Maxey flipped a switch and has been far more aggressive driving to the basket, earning more shots and hitting a better percentage. Maxey shot 50% on field goals through the first five February games and 40% from 3-point range. His assists also are way up since the calendar turned to 2025, higher than any stretch in his career.
With Embiid always a question mark and George so passive and both of them under consideration to be shut down until October, Maxey has taken over and should continue to pile on the points. He isn’t far from averaging 30 PPG for the season, either. Maxey averages nearly 50 ESPN fantasy points per game. He is easily Philadelphia’s most reliable and most valuable player and a borderline top 10 fantasy asset. Trade Embiid now while he is playing (who knows about next week or any week after that?) and watch Maxey continue to dominate.
Don’t be surprised if … the Warriors really take off when Jonathan Kuminga returns
Fantasy managers did not enjoy Jimmy Butler‘s antics this season for the Miami Heat, with his disappointing statistics and multiple suspensions, but now the enigmatic player is with the Golden State Warriors and seemingly thriving. It is a bit infuriating that Butler is just now motivated to perform to expectations, more than halfway through the season, but at least we get something. Butler averages a paltry (for him) 17.6 PPG and 36.2 ESPN fantasy points per game, but his numbers are up with the Warriors.
Two things were clear from Butler’s first four games as a Warrior: He has a plan. He drew fouls at a feverish pace, at 10 free throws per game. Perhaps things cannot continue at that rate, but Butler wasn’t looking for his own shot. The Warriors ranked in the bottom three in free-throw attempts per game until recently: Butler is fixing that. Trading for him two months or even two weeks ago in fantasy was risky. Today, with motivated efficiency and a plan, he should be a top 30 fantasy option these next two months because, well, he just feels like it.
Butler’s effect on others should be more pronounced. PG Stephen Curry hit 4.2 3-pointers per game in January, which is great, but not Curry great. He’s at 5.3 3-pointers per game in February, thanks in large part to Butler creating space and looking like a passing wizard. Butler may lead Golden State in assists (and steals) from here on out, but Curry is going to have some monster scoring nights, like several 50-point-type efforts.
Kuminga, of course, is the key Warriors player available in 52% of ESPN standard leagues, and when he returns from a right ankle sprain, his breakout season should continue. Butler is more than happy to continue acting as facilitator for Curry and, soon, Kuminga, who averaged 21 PPG and 6.3 RPG in December. It will not be a shock to see Curry average 30 PPG from here on out, while Kuminga and Butler eclipse 20 PPG. Get Kuminga now before he returns.
Don’t be surprised if … Luka Doncic fails to average 50 fantasy PPG this season
Let’s deal with the stunning Los Angeles Lakers–Dallas Mavericks trade from a few weeks ago. It’s early, but Doncic seems unlikely to improve his statistics and match his Dallas usage alongside an incredibly productive LeBron James and the underrated Austin Reaves while they are (mostly) healthy. We shouldn’t expect other Lakers to shoot less now that he is here.
James, Doncic and Reaves — in that order — will dictate the offense and pile on assists, but Doncic might not average 25 PPG or 7 APG here, pedestrian numbers for him in comparison to what his investors expected. Last season, Doncic averaged an incredible 64 ESPN fantasy points per game. This season, he is at 52.5 PPG, which is still great, but now things have altered. Remember, James averages 24.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 9 APG, as well as 49.6 fantasy PPG. Reaves is at 19.1 PPG and 6.2 APG for 37 fantasy PPG.
Doncic should remain a great fantasy option the next two months, but not better than James, and not as great as many expect. This makes Doncic (this is a tough word, but let’s be honest) an overrated fantasy option for the remainder of this season. Perhaps a fantasy manager can acquire a better option such as Celtics PF/SF Jayson Tatum, Kings C/PF Domantas Sabonis, Pistons PG/SG Cade Cunningham and Knicks C/PF Karl-Anthony Towns. They are clear top 10 fantasy options in points formats, averaging nearly 50 ESPN fantasy points per game, their usage is set, and they have been healthy. Can we assume that Doncic even plays in more games than the 40-year-old James the rest of the season?
Doncic simply cannot approach last season’s amazing numbers of 33.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 9.8 APG here, not with a healthy James thriving. In the fall, the Lakers could build around Doncic better to feature his talents more. In redraft formats today, trading Doncic for James — unthinkable months ago — may be wise.
Doncic and James are not normal players, and while we saw somewhat overwhelmed C Jaxson Hayes convert dunks in one game against the Jazz, he isn’t much of a rebounder. Doncic and James will handle the rebounding, while the 7-footer can block a few shots per game. In other words, adding Hayes to fantasy teams probably will not work out, and don’t even think about newcomer Alex Len. We can only imagine how Hornets C Mark Williams would have fit in, but it still would not have made Doncic a clear top 10 fantasy option for the next two months.
