Florida football rights ship on recruiting trail while FSU’s struggles continue

Before the end of September, two of Florida’s premier college football programs looked to be trouble.

Both the Florida Gators and Florida State Seminoles entered the season with high hopes. The Gators boasted one of the toughest schedules in the nation with a chance to return to SEC prominence, and FSU had the chance to prove that last year’s 13-1 finish was not a fluke.

Instead, Florida State started the year winless. And Florida dropped two marquee games at home to start 1-2. By mid-October, the discussion surrounding both programs was about how to salvage the season and how to defend their 2025 commits — not about a path to the playoffs nor conference championships.

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But as we near December, there has been a stark contrast between the trajectory of two schools who looked to be headed down the same path.

As FSU slid to 1-9 on the year after a 52-3 loss to Notre Dame, Florida improved to 5-5 with a statement win over LSU in The Swamp.

The Seminoles‘ 2025 commits began to waver more than ever, and the Gators capitalized on FSU’s struggles directly by flipping commitments. First, four-star quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. from Jacksonville decommitted after more than a year committed to Mike Norvell and company, and flipped to Florida after a visit to the Swamp for the win over LSU.

Next came three-star Seminole Ridge offensive lineman Daniel Pierre Louis, who committed to Florida State just over a week after receiving an offer in early October. He was also in Gainesville for the LSU game, and flipped his commitment by the following Tuesday.

The Gators have managed to separate themselves from Florida State on the recruiting trail after early struggles, and the win over LSU has an enormous hand in that. As of Thursday night, Florida’s 2025 class was ranked 27th in the nation by 247Sports, while FSU’s is 34th.

But what else has Florida done to right the ship, and is it possible for Florida State to do the same before the early signing day period begins Dec. 4?

How is Florida football beating FSU on the recruiting trail?

The simplest answer is that winning solves everything. The Gators packed The Swamp with recruits for the LSU game, and did the same for wins over UCF, Kentucky, and Samford. Florida’s season win total was set at 4.5 by most major sportsbooks, and the Gators surpassed that with two games left in the regular season.

The Seminoles’ lone win this year has been over Cal at home. If any recruits missed that game, their only other opportunities to see FSU at home so far were losses to Boston College, Memphis, Clemson, and North Carolina.

Since beating LSU, the Gators have flipped two Florida State commits, flipped three-star defensive lineman Stephon Shivers from Georgia, and have raised their chances of flipping Texas five-star receiver commit Jamie Ffrench and FSU’s five-star offensive lineman Solomon Thomas. They’ve also emerged as finalists for four-star linebacker Kellen Wiley Jr.

Granted, Florida has fallen at home this year as well, but to Miami and Texas A&M, which are both fighting for control of their respective conferences and a bid to the playoffs. So much of a recruit’s decision is weighed on their experience during a visit. When a recruit comes to a packed stadium for a big game, they can feel it — and Florida has played in more big games this year than Florida State has.

So how much you win and the quality of your losses directly influence your success on the recruiting trail — nothing new there. But Florida did something recently that has had a massive effect on their ability to recruit players, but when they did it, the Gator faithful were furious.

How did securing Billy Napier’s job help Florida football on the recruiting trail?

On Nov. 7, just before the Gators played Texas, Florida’s athletic director Scott Stricklin shared an open letter to Gator fans that emphatically closed the door on the loudest narrative surrounding Florida football: Billy Napier will be coming back.

Florida fans were livid. They felt that Napier hadn’t lived up to the standard that the Gators have upheld for decades, and they were already in the middle of a debate on who would be best to replace him. That frustration only intensified after the Gators fell to Texas 49-17.

Three days later, Florida State did the opposite by firing their offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and wide receivers coach. So from a recruit’s perspective, one school has faith in it’s staff and the trajectory of the program, and the other school just fired the very coaches that were recruiting them.

Florida State recruits began to rethink their stances in turn. Jones decommitted four days after the firings, and reports that the Seminoles were pushing for Bishop Verot quarterback Carter Smith did nothing to help keep him tethered.

Thomas, the crown jewel of FSU’s 2025 class, voiced his displeasure on social media following Alex Atkins’ dismissal as well, and has been linked to Florida after taking a visit to the Swamp for the LSU game.

Billy Napier is a proven recruiter, and the university empowered him on the recruiting trail by cementing his job security. Now, Napier and company can pitch to recruits that they will be there when they arrive in Gainesville, while recruits don’t know for now who will be their coach in Tallahassee.

Freshmen earning starting roles helps Florida on the recruiting trail

DJ Lagway and Jaden Baugh made Florida history as the first true freshmen quarterback-running back tandem to ever start for the Gators, and the pair led Florida to a 48-20 win.

They excited again against LSU, and recruits were there en masse for both performances. When Lagway starts, the Gators are 3-1. That record improves to 3-0 when Lagway is the one finishing games.

Redshirt freshman Knijeah Harris earned 11 starts this year at left guard, and redshirt freshman Aidan Mizell has developed into a mainstay in the passing game.

First and second year players have their fingerprints all over this Florida squad, and the Gainesville Sun’s Kevin Brockway reported that is a large reason why Stricklin brought back Napier.

When recruits see players coming in and making an immediate impact, it signals two things to that prospect. The first is that the Gators are giving young players honest chances to earn important roles. So many teams across the county rely heavily on the portal to bring in polished fourth, fifth, sixth, or even seventh year players. When a program like Florida gives young players an opportunity, recruits see that as a chance to make a difference for a team with high expectations.

The second is that Napier and crew are recruiting players they can see making an immediate impact on the team, which means if Florida is recruiting you, they likely think of you in that way. Recruits often end up where they feel valued or wanted, and what better way to show a recruit that you value your young players than by putting them in starting or important roles?

Can Florida State football right the ship like Florida has?

Time is running out on the Seminoles. They’ve had seven decommitments this cycle, and are poised for more with just two home games left on the schedule.

An important detail about the Seminoles’ remaining schedule; they have to host the Gators in their regular season finale. The two schools are battling for many of the same recruits, and the Florida game will be Florida State’s last chance to get recruits on campus for a visit.

If the Seminoles are thrashed at home in front of major recruits in their last game of the season by a major in-state rival, the effects on the recruiting trail will be as immediate as they are impactful.

All signs began to point towards Wisconsin closing on Smith, so the Seminoles (now without a 2025 quarterback commit because of their pursuit of Smith) flipped three-star quarterback and Oklahoma commit Kevin Sperry out of Denton (Texas).

Florida State has offered close to 50 senior wide receivers this cycle, but the Seminoles fired Ron Dugans after entering November with exactly zero wide receiver commits and three decommitments at that position.

In response, Florida State recently offered Cocoa’s four-star wide receiver Jayvan Boggs. The Seminoles have pushed hard for Boggs in recent weeks, and got him on campus for the North Carolina game. Boggs has been committed to UCF since August, but listened to pitches for a time following coaching changes at UCF. He shut down his recruitment on Nov. 21, officially closing the door on Florida State.

The biggest priority for Florida State is keeping Thomas with the program. If the Seminoles lose their lone five-star, it doesn’t bode well for the rest of the class.

A win over Florida just before the early signing period would be massive for the Seminoles. Obviously beating the Gators would be invaluable for Mike Norvell for many different reasons, but wrapping up the year with a victory of that caliber may cement a recruit or two that sit on the fence for now.

Replacing lost commitments with players like Smith and Boggs would have enhanced Florida State’s standing this cycle by keeping some of the state’s top local talent home. Instead, the Seminoles will continue to piece together their 2025 class until signing day.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: How Florida football cashed in on Florida State’s recruiting struggles