The blue-chip ratio isn’t a perfect science, but it remains true that each of the last 14 NCAA champions has a roster comprised of at least 50% four- and five-star talents.
Bud Elliott of CBS Sports invented the stat over a decade ago, and it has remained a popular projection tool for identifying which teams are true contenders entering the regular season. While any team has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, only 18 have the blue-chip ratio necessary to finish on top.
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Florida finds itself in a three-way tie for No. 11 on the list, alongside Auburn and Miami, with a 64% blue-chip ratio. Sixteen of the 26 class of 2025 signees are rated four stars or higher, which is just below the four-year average used.
Billy Napier might have signed his first top-10 class, but the BCR trend says he’s relying a little too heavily on three-star talent to buff the numbers. Signing one or two fewer three stars would have helped the BCR over the next four years, but the potential of adding an undervalued recruit is too high for Napier to ignore.
2025 Blue Chip Ratio Top 18
How has this stat performed in the past?
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2024: Ohio State won it all with the highest BCR of any NCAA Champion since 2011 at 90% blue chips.
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2023: Michigan won it all with a 54% mark.
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2022: Georgia took home the title in dominant fashion with a 77% ratio.
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2021: Georgia had an 80% BCR and won it all, beating the No. 1 BCR team, Alabama, in the title game. Three of the four CFP teams were BCR teams; Cincinnati was the first party crasher since 2017.
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2020: Alabama had an 83% BCR and won it all. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.
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2019: LSU won it with a 64% BCR. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.
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2018: Clemson took it home with a 68% mark. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.
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2017: Alabama won it all with an incredible 80% mark.
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2016: Clemson took home the title after signing 52% blue chips in the 2013-16 classes.
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2015: Alabama had a 77% mark.
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2014: Ohio State won the title with a 68%.
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2012: Alabama was at 71%.
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2011: ‘Bama won the first of its back-to-back titles … also with a 71% mark.
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The Blue-Chip Ratio is not…
“A requirement to make the College Football Playoff. While related, making the College Football Playoff and winning it are two drastically different accomplishments in terms of difficulty. Schedule strength plays a much bigger role in the former. Plenty of teams outside the BCR threshold made the four-team College Football Playoff (typically getting crushed, by the way), and many more will make the new 12-team field.”
“A substitute for player development, culture or coaching. All of those elements matter and are necessary to win the national title. The BCR is simply the minimum historical standard of recruiting necessary to win it all.”
“To be used to pick games. It is not an effective predictive measure in single-game settings.”
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Florida Blue-Chip Ratio history
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida football recruiting 2025 blue chip ratio CBS Sports
