Following the money: UFC 316 betting line movements tracker | Merab vs. O’Malley 2

UFC 316 takes place this weekend (Sat., June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event features Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 for the Bantamweight belt.

UFC 316’s co-main event is Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison for the company’s women’s Bantamweight title. The PPV main card also has Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer, Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque and Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix.

UFC 316’s “Prelims” are headlined by Joshua Van vs. Bruno Silva. The undercard also has Wang Cong vs. Ariane da Silva and Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 316 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 316 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Merab Dvalishvili (-281 +1.2%) vs. Sean O’Malley (+233 -0.6%)

The lines were very interesting the first time these two met. Dvalishvili opened at -198 for that fight, but the public bet him up to +105. O’Malley, meanwhile, opened at +164 before closing at +100, making the fight a pick ‘em. The fight did not play out like a pick ‘em, though. It’s safe to say that Vegas were right about that one and the public, which largely threw down on the very popular O’Malley, were dead wrong.

This time around, Vegas has again set Dvalishvili as the favorite (a heavier favorite). However, the public haven’t changed that one bit. It seems like all that faith in O’Malley has evaporated in the nine months since these two faced each other. And you can understand why, given how easy Dvalishvili found it to take and hold O’Malley down.

The public have been wrong to fade Dvalishvili a lot recently. When he fought Umar Nurmagomedov, he opened at +142 and then closed at +240. I thought Dvalishvili bossed that fight and don’t believe the narrative around it being a “very close decision.” Dvalishvilli opened at +150 and closed at +220 for his fight with Petr Yan, too.

The public has mostly backed O’Malley. He’s seen his favorite line shorten in all his fights back until he fought Andre Soukamthath (where he opened at -260 and closed at -145). In both his professional losses (to Dvalishvili and Marlon Vera) he saw his line flip from positive odds to negative odds. In that first Vera fight, he opened at +185 and then closed at -275 (another case of Vegas being right and the public being wrong when it comes to Suga).

Vegas has been pretty locked in on these O’Malley fights. If they are right again, then he’s going to lose this rematch and find himself out in the cold at Bantamweight.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Julianna Pena (+514 +12.1%) vs. Kayla Harrison (-762 -3.4%)

This line is behaving as you’d expect it. Harrison opened as the big favorite with -590 odds and that his grown to close to -800. Interestingly, the major shift in this line didn’t happen until around June 3. Harrison’s line has been slowly shortening and then it just dropped of a cliff, moving from -634 to -762 in a couple of days. That represents some big money coming in on Harrison this week.

This is nothing new for Harrison. She opened at -649 for her fight with Ketlen Vieira and closed at a ridiculous -1000 (before being quite uninspiring in the actual fight itself). In her debut with Holly Holm, her line was a bit more reserved. She opened at -310 and closed at -430. That likely represents the fact that not many folks were familiar with her rep when she came into UFC.

Pena does her best work as an underdog.

She’s won UFC’s Bantamweight title twice in her career as a dog. In 2021, she beat Amanda Nunes at +700 odds (after opening at +500). When she beat Raquel Pennington, she closed at +140, regardless of what Dana White thought about that decision.

Does Pena shock us all, again, by coming through as the underdog? Or, will things play out how Vegas assumes, with Harrison trouncing her and taking her belt?

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Kelvin Gastelum (+304 +2.2%) vs. Joe Pyfer (-400 -0.8%)

The last time these two were booked for UFC Mexico City in March (details here), Gastelum opened at +400 and was bet all the way down to +250 by folks who believed he was too good to be exposed by a very untested Pyfer.

Count me among those folks.

This time around, Gastelum has opened at +295 and the public are pushing his line the other way. That’s great news if, like me, you still believe Gastelum is a very live dog in this fight.

These opening lines for Gastelum are the highest he’s seen in his UFC career. The only time he’s ever been close to them is when he was +220 against Uriah Hall in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17 Finale.

And we all remember what happened there.

Pyfer has been the favorite in all of his UFC fights since coming off Contender Series. Interestingly, he opened as the underdog in both his Contender Series fights, which he won (over Ozzy Diaz and Dustin Stoltzfus). In his only professional loss to Jack Hermansson, he opened at -192 and was bet down to -245.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Mario Bautista (+154 -3.5%) vs. Patchy Mix (-188 +2.7%)

There’s not much change in this line. I’m a little surprised to see Bautista open as the underdog. I think he will lose this fight, but I thought the Bellator bias on Mix might have him open as an underdog. Vegas are respecting Mix’s past body of work, though (as it should). Despite that, the public are a little unsure. He opened at -205 and that’s lengthened a little. It’s trending up at this time of writing, though.

The public has been hit and miss on Bautista as of late. They were right to take his line from -175 to -120 against Jose Aldo. But, they were wrong to push his line from -110 to +160 against Ricky Simon.

I think this is a hard fight to pick, but I think the public might be wrong in fading Mix (presumably because they’re unfamiliar with his game).

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Vicente Luque (+220 +21.9%) vs. Kevin Holland (-279 -10.5%)

Luque is one of the biggest risers on this card. He opened with very modest +150 odds (to Holland’s -200), but that is steadily climbing.

The public nailed it with Luque in his last fight. Vegas had him opening as a +175 underdog against the -250 Themba Gorimbo. The public brought his line down to +145, though, and then enjoyed him choking Gorimbo out cold in the first.

The public were right about Luque in his previous fight, too, against Joaquin Buckley. He opened as the -162 favorite in that fight and was bet down to -122. Buckley would then get the ground-and-pound win.

The public have been right on Holland lately, too. The were right to back him against Gunnar Nelson and right to fade him against Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze. And they were right to go all-in on him when he fought Michal Oleksiejczuk, too.

With the public showing a lot of accuracy on both these guys, these current lines might suggest that we’re going to see Luque on the wrong end of another beating.

UFC 316 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Bruno Silva (+466 +39.9%) vs. Joshua Van (-663 -11.7%)

Silva’s underdog line is going through the roof right now. He opened at just +240, but that has gone up by 40 percent at this time of writing. It appears to still be trending upward. We saw this with his Manel Kape fight, too, where he opened at +210 and closed at +350.

In his previous fight, against Cody Durden, the public were right to bet him down from a +110 underdog to a -137 favorite. He would end up starching Durden with an uppercut in this fight.

Against Van, though — who fights with the kind of pressure Kape used to put away Silva — I think the public are right to fade him.

This will likely result in Van’s shortest odds of his UFC career. Prior to this his shortest odds were when he was -275 to beat Edgar Chairez at The Sphere (which he did).

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Azamat Murzakanov (-596 -5.8%) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+427 +18.4%)

Ribeiro has cashed as an underdog in two straight fights. He was +350 when he submitted Diyar Nurgozhay and +170 when he decisioned Caio Machado. Both of those were awful fights where the favorites laid eggs.

Ribeiro is the underdog once again. And I don’t think he’s going to make it three in a row against Murzakanov.

The public have backed the undefeated Murzakanov in each of his UFC appearances. The most notable incidence of that is when he opened as a +170 underdog against Dustin Jacoby and closed at +140.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Serghei Spivac (-138 +1.2%) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+114 -2.8%)

Not a lot of change in this match up. I think Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta is a very close fight to call and that’s represented in both Vegas’ opening line and in how neither man’s odds have taken off in a different direction.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Khaos Williams (-188 0%) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+153 +1.2%)

This is another line that hasn’t had much movement. That is probably down to how fresh this match-up is. Williams was supposed to be fighting Uros Medic (that would have been a banger!). Instead, Gustafsson is coming in on short notice after his own fight, with Trevin Giles last week, fell apart.

UFC 316 Early ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Ariane da Silva (+413 +33.7%) vs. Wang Cong (-565 -9.3%)

da Silva is another one of the big risers on this card. And her line should go even higher now that she’s come in seven pounds heavy for this Flyweight fight. Cong, meanwhile, was upset as a massive favorite last year, but rebounded with a comfortable win over Bruna Brasil earlier this year. The public were likely right to fade da Silva before the weigh-ins. They are certainly justified in doing it now after she stepped on the scales as a Bantamweight.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jeka Saragih (+428 +29%) vs. Joo Sang Yoo (-598 -10.5%)

Saragih has been pretty hit-or-miss in his short UFC career thus far. He’s fighting an unknown in the form of Yoo. Both Vegas and the public seem to know who Yoo is, though. For some reason, Saragih’s line has exploded from +275 to +440 … and rising. Maybe there is a lot of money coming out of Asia for Yoo?

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Quillan Salkilld (-559 -12.7%) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+406 +34.8%)

Ashmouz’s line has really ballooned this week. He opened at +230 and that has been rising steadily. Salkilld opened at -305 before finding himself as one of the biggest favorites on the card.

Something similar happened in Salkilld’s proper UFC debut. He opened at -320 against Anshul Jubli and closed at -464. He then knocked out Jubli cold in less than one minute.

Australian and British fighters might benefit a lot from a very mainstream betting culture in their home nations. Because of how accessible, and not frowned upon, betting is over there, I think there are cohorts of betters large enough to have dramatic effects on these lines.

Even so, I like Salkilld in this match-up (I just don’t see him as a -600 favorite).

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

MarQuel Mederos (-203 +6.2%) vs. Mark Choinski (+166 -3.4%)

There’s not a lot of movement here because it’s another short notice showdown.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

UFC 316 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 314:

• Bruno Silva: From +240 underdog to +466 underdog (+39.9 percent) (A)
• Yanal Ashmouz: From +230 underdog to +406 underdog (+34.8 percent) (A)
• Ariane da Silva: From -+240 underdog to +413 underdog (+33.7 percent) (A)
• Jeka Saragih: From +275 underdog to +428 underdog (+29 percent) (A)
• Vicente Luque: From +150 underdog to +220 underdog (+13.8 percent) (A)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 5-28.

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 10-10.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 1-6.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-2.

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 0-0.

Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC

UFC 316 Best Underdogs Bets

There’s a lot of big underdogs on this card. I can’t remember the last time we had so many fighters with +400 or higher odds on the same card. Sadly, I don’t like the look of many of those. The only fighter I feel especially confident in is Gastelum. And that’s because I’m simply not buying what Pyfer is selling. And I think that Gastelum has plenty left in the tank (he’s somehow only 33).

I think all the other big underdogs are going to lose. If anything, I think Ashmouz might be worth a look. He’s very well rounded and Salkilld is still quite unproven.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

LIVE! Watch UFC 316 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

CHAMPIONSHIP DOUBLE-DIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., June 7, 2025, with a championship doubleheader headlining UFC 316 from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. In UFC 316’s PPV main event, Bantamweight roost-ruler, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his title against former division champion, Sean O’Malley, in a highly-anticipated five-round rematch. UFC 316’s PPV co-main event features women’s Bantamweight titleholder, Julianna Pena, facing off against two-time Olympic gold medalist, Kayla Harrison, in a thrilling five-round clash. UFC 316 will also showcase a 135-pound showdown between Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista, as well as a Welterweight bout pitting Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland and much more! UFC 316’s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 8 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 316 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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