Game Preview: #13 Purdue, NC State – Rady’s Children Invitational

The stage doesn’t get much bigger than the last time the Purdue Boilermakers faced off against the NC State Wolfpack.

Just under six months ago, the #1 seed Purdue Boilermakers finally broke through to its first Final Four in nearly half a decade. It was Matt Painter’s first trip to the Final Four a season after Purdue became just the second #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The team waiting in Phoenix for Purdue might have been an even more surprising team. NC State was an #11 seed who didn’t look like they’d even make it to the NCAA Tournament heading into the ACC Tournament. NC State was a middling 17-14 team at the time with a head coach, Kevin Keatts, firmly on the hot seat.

Then NC State beat Louisville, and Syracuse, and Duke, and Virginia, and finally North Carolina in the championship in five straight days. That won NC State’s way into the NCAA Tournament where the Wolf Pack’s hot streak continued. It beat Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette, and Duke to make its way to the Final Four.

NC State’s Cinderella run ran out against Purdue as college basketball’s best player dominated from the jump. Purdue ran out to a 21-11 lead, and NC State’s DJ Burns, the tournament darling, couldn’t withstand the barrage of Zach Edey down low.

But gone are Burns and Edey. Gone are all three of NC State’s leading minute players from that Final Four game.

In their place, a rebuilt Kevin Keatts team that has yet to be challenged. NC State is 5-0 while it hasn’t placed a team inside Kenpom’s top-200.

Purdue has been turned over to Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn, three starts from the Final Four, and has already played two top-10 teams in Alabama and Marquette, going 1-1 against them and 4-1 to start the season.

The winner of this game will face off against the winner of Ole Miss and BYU.

On paper, Purdue looks to be a heavy favorite against an NC State team that’s played well but not great against some bad competition.

Purdue’s proven what it can be by beating then #2 Alabama at home, but it also showed it has flaws that can be exploited when Purdue lost on the road to Marquette. Marquette got into Purdue’s guards and bigs, disrupting Purdue’s carefully constructed offense. It forced Purdue into 15 turnovers, enough to create the 18 point deficit that gave Purdue its first non-conference loss in over three seasons.

Unfortunately for Purdue, NC State has some Marquette in the way they play, too.

“They make it hard to play how you normally play,” Matt Painter said on Wednesday about the difficulties of taking on NC State.

NC State is the 12th best team in the country according to Kenpom, forcing turnovers on 24% of team’s possessions.

Purdue has announced itself the last three seasons in these holiday tournaments. Three years ago, Purdue knocked off Villanova and North Carolina. Two seasons ago, it was Purdue running through Gonzaga and Duke on the way to winning the Phil Knight Invitational. Last season, one of the most loaded Maui Invitationals of all time saw Purdue again sweep, taking down Marquette in the championship.

But this season’s Purdue team is still figuring out its rotations. The one day turn around will allow Painter to learn a little more about his team.

“Can you respond?” Painter said when asked what his young guys can show him in this environment. Win or lose, Purdue will have just one day to avenge or stay focused against an opponent with limited time to prepare. It’s as close as you can get for hands on experience of what the NCAA Tournament is like. Something that Purdue’s freshmen have yet to experience.

Struggling is relative, and it’s a hard tag to put on someone who is averaging 12.2 points per game, 5.3 rebounds, and 9.3 assists, but Braden Smith, Purdue’s star point guard, is coming off a game where he failed to score at all for just the second time in his career, and is shooting 38.1% on the season from the field.

Smith’s play can’t go without a caveat, he’s been the nation’s best playmaker. As Purdue tries to integrate new freshman, a rotating cast of bigs, and wings that are stepping into a scoring role, its Smith’s play that guides Purdue for every moment he’s on the floor. At 33.7 minutes a game, there’s not many important minutes where Smith isn’t on the floor.

There’s not a player in the country with more on his shoulders than Smith.

But Smith has yet to marry elite play making with high efficiency scoring to this point. His turnovers have improved, with just 4 in his last three games while securing at least 9 assists in each game, but his jump shot isn’t falling. He was 3 of 5 fro three against Marquette, knocking down open off ball looks, but struggled in the mid-range, going just 1 of 5 inside the arc. Against Marshall, Smith was 0-4, missing three three-pointers.

Smith has shined in holiday tournaments, and his ability to decipher defenses has led to Purdue’s offense success this season. If his shot can start to fall, he and Purdue’s offense becomes nearly unguardable. It’s not an easy thing to quick prepare for a guard as multi-dimensional as Smith.

Can Smith find his form again as Purdue gets closer to conference play?

Jayden Taylor leads the way at 13.7 points a game, but next to him, Marcus Hill is almost as dangerous, scoring 13.2 points a game. Ben Middlebrooks and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield offer similar production from the forward spots with Middlebrooks averaging 11.8 points a game and Huntley-Hatfield going for 11.5 points a game.

That balanced scoring will challenge Purdue as well as a defense that is good at creating transition baskets, something that Marquette dominated Purdue with in its win over the Boilermakers.

NC State plays a frenetic pace, wanting to let its length and athleticism chaos up the game. It has ten players averaging double-digit minutes. Michael O’Connell will likely be asked to handle a lot of the Smith duty while who can answer Trey Kaufman-Renn down low will probably be the most difficult ask for a Wolfpack team that lacks great size.

On paper, Purdue is the more talented team. The Wolfpack will try to be the more aggressive team.

Purdue’s transition to a small ball lineup seemed to take a giant shift when Will Berg moved from starting lineup to nearly out of the rotation.

Against Marquette, Berg struggled, getting out played on both ends. The next game against Marshall, Purdue moved to a one big man lineup with Trey Kaufman-Renn at the five and wings Myles Colvin and Camden Heide moving into the starting lineup. Berg didn’t enter the game till the game was decided in the second half.

Don’t expect Purdue to change much, and it’s not just about Purdue playing better small, but because big, it’s not doing what it needs to do. Painter said on Wednesday that if his team isn’t going to defend well or out rebound opponents, he doesn’t have much incentive to not play small.

Purdue has struggled on both accounts this season. It’s defense is giving up 53% shooting inside the arc and struggling to grab rebounds at either end of the floor. That means Painter has leaned into Camden Heide playing the four next to Trey Kaufman-Renn.

Heide made the most of it in his first career start against Marshall. Heide had 13 points on a perfect 3 of 3 from the floor, all three of his shots were three-point attempts. Heide is now shooting 8 of 13 from three on the season aftering starting the season not making a three in his first two games of the season. That kind of efficiency, added to the fact that Colvin and Heide have been rebounding at the highest percentage for Purdue players this season, makes the small ball lineup less of a fad and more of an identity.