#8 Purdue (7-1) will have had nearly a week to get back from San Diego, rest up from the back to back games, and work off any extra turkey from Thanksgiving before needing to head to Penn State to take on the (7-1) Nittany Lions in its first Big Ten action of the year.
Purdue spent Thanksgiving week beating N.C. State and Ole Miss to win the Rady Children’s Invitational. Penn State played earlier in the holiday week and picked up its first loss, 75-67, to Clemson.
Penn State is coming off a get right game against Buffalo at home on Sunday.
For Purdue, it’ll look to get off to a better start then it did last year as it aims to win its third straight Big Ten title. In last year’s conference opener, Purdue fell on the road to a game Northwestern team.
Purdue will have a similar target on its back as Penn State, and second year head coach Mike Rhoades, tries to pick up its first marquee win and upset of the season against the conference favorites.
Purdue’s only loss this season came on the road, a 76-58 loss to Marquette, continuing a trend for Purdue in the regular season. If Purdue loses, it’s probably a road game. Purdue was perfect at Mackey Arena last season in the regular season, and won all of its neutral floor games. It was only while on the road that Purdue fell. Three times Purdue lost last season in conference play at Northwestern, at Nebraska, and at Ohio State. That Northwestern game was also the conference opener for Purdue.
By my count, Purdue hasn’t lost at Penn State since 2014.
For Purdue, Penn State is the start of an early gauntlet. It will travel to Penn State on Thursday and then play host to Maryland on Sunday before jumping back into the last of its non-conference schedule.
There awaits two of Purdue’s biggest tests, hosting Texas A&M in Indianapolis before traveling to Alabama to take on the #1 Auburn Tigers on December 21st.
Penn State had a good start to its season. It won its first 6 games, a good sign for a team that finished last season just 16-17 on the year.
The Nittany Lions offense in particular has gotten off to a good start behind five players averaging double-figures with Ace Baldwin Jr. leading the way at 14.9 points per game at the point and big man Yanic Konan Niederhauser’s 14.3 points in just 22 minutes a game.
Penn State has been good from the perimeter, knocking down 38.1% of its threes, the 40th best mark in the country. It’s been deadly from inside, making over 60% of its shots from inside the two point arc.
Penn State has a strong point guard, a dynamic big on the roll in Neiderhauser, and a wing that can really shoot the ball in Puff Johnson. Penn State is a well coached team with Mike Rhoades stepping into his second year with the program. Rhodes teams play hard, force turnovers, and want to force the pace.
But Penn State’s numbers come with a caveat – its non-conference schedule has been anything but strenuous. Penn State has played one team inside Kenpom’s top-100, and that was a neutral floor loss to a good Clemson team.
The rest of Penn State’s schedule is filled with high-scoring, blow out wins. Its best win is a neutral floor victory over a struggling Virginia Tech team.
Against Clemson, a Penn State offense that had scored at least 85 in every game this season, scored just 67. Penn State relies a lot on Baldwin creating and Niederhauser’s size on the roll as a big man. Against Clemson, when first options were taken away or the pick and roll played solid, Penn State struggled to have a counter.
Baldwin is a very good guard, but he’s not elite at any one skill offensively. He needs offense running around him and to get on the move to create for himself and others.
Purdue has not been great on the defensive end this season, but Purdue’s also been tested by some of the country’s most elite scorers. Purdue’s done well at limiting them from going off. Purdue looks to be an improving defensive team as it settled with its new small ball rotation. In place of bigger, stiff big men, Purdue’s found more minutes for its athletic wings and best defenders, Camden Heide and Myles Colvin.
More concerning for Penn State is there defense. Against Clemson, it gave up 9 of 19 from three, and those 19 three pointers came easily. Penn State’s defense lives off forcing turnovers, something Purdue has mostly handled this season. The key to attacking the Nittany Lions is getting into the half court where Penn State has a tendency to over help and leave shooters on the far side open in the corner.
That’s a problem when you’re going up against the country’s best play maker, Braden Smith, who is lined up with a bevvy of shooters around him including Camden Heide, who has thrived being a three-point outlet from all of the action Purdue gets Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn in in the pick and roll. Smith is averaging over 9 assists a game.
Penn State is giving up 33.2% from three, and hasn’t taken on an offense even close to what Purdue’s capable of.
If Penn State doesn’t play its best defensive effort at home against Purdue, expect Braden Smith to have another big game against the Nittany Lions and Camden Heide to work on his 58% shooting mark from three on the season.
Trey Kaufman-Renn had himself a tournament in San Diego, earning his first player of the week in the Big Ten honors.
Kaufman-Renn has had himself a season, in fact. Kenpom has him as the 6th best player in its player of the year standings. TKR is averaging 19.1 points a game, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists while shooting better than 60% of the floor. While measuring up to Zach Edey’s two year dominance is all but impossible, it looks like Purdue once again has the best big man in the Big Ten, and arguably one of the best players in the country.
Adding that with Braden Smith, also one of the best players in the country, and it seems that Purdue might be ahead of schedule again with a team ranked inside the top-10 again. Purdue has now spent 42 straight weeks inside the top-15 in the AP Poll. That’s the longest active streak in college basketball by double.
Kaufman-Renn and Smith’s two man game has carried Purdue through a difficult non-conference schedule with just one blemish. They’ve been the best duo in the conference and every team that takes on Purdue will have to try and figure out how to handle the two. TKR’s ability to dominate in isolation in the post and in the short roll on pick and rolls has given Purdue the versatility to be dangerous at all three levels. His expanded vision when it comes to play making has forced teams into catch-22’s. TKR is too good to play one on one inside, but Purdue’s perimeter shooters are just as deadly wide open on the perimeter.
Purdue has the 5th best offense in the country. Smith will get a lot of deserved credit, but now Kaufman-Renn’s credit is starting to catch up with his production.
Penn State will be the next to try and slow down Purdue’s post star.
