There were several moves made by the Phillies today, helping us end our long suffering discussion about what they should do and what they shouldn’t do. Let’s grade them all.
Phillies acquire Luis Arraez, Caleb Kilian from the Giants for Ramon Marquez, Marty Gair
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Obviously the doozy of the deals that were completed, there are several layers to this one. First off, addressing their gaping offensive need with a player like Arraez is a solid fit for them. Currently running a 120 wRC+ in San Francisco, he’ll be added to a lineup that truly needs what he does at the plate. Arraez’s knack for contact hitting and not striking out (a 4.5 K%!!!) is an antithesis to a lineup that is 24th in baseball with a 23.6% strikeout rate. That’s probably the greatest asset that he can provide the lineup as he doesn’t really walk much, something that would be preferable considering that he will likely be batting at or near the top of the lineup. His Savant page has several blue shades in categories one wouldn’t really want to be blue in, but there is also the preternatural ability Arraez has at the plate that simply cannot be quantified. He is a player with the skillset of a bygone era, but has made it work all these years he’s been in the majors.
You know about the offense. It’s the defense.
Some how, some way, Arraez has vaulted himself to the top of the league as a defensive second baseman, a year after he was forced to move his way down the defensive spectrum in San Diego to first base. His work with legendary infield coach Ron Washington with Giants has to be considered the sole reason for this turnaround as Washington has done this with many, many players wherever he has coached. The question is: do you believe in it? With the reports that Arraez will be playing second base with the Phillies, that will force the team into making decisions that will shift at least two players to a new position, creating the chance that the defense will go from an absolute liability to something close to a natural disaster.
That is, unless they can somehow be near average. It’s in the realm of possibility, but it’s probably foolish to assume that it will improve.
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In Kilian, the Phillies are adding another arm to the bullpen that is something they value: the ability to strike hitters out. A fastball that averages near 97 miles per hour, we’ve seen the team target this kind of velocity in deals, both trades and free agency signings. Kilian also has two pitches – a knucklecurve and a slider – that are generating whiffs over 40% each. Having two swing and miss pitches from the right handed side is something they do not have right now outside of Jhoan Duran. He’s an asset to a bullpen that has been running on fumes for a bit. His five more years of team control is likely the reason the prospect return was so high.
In return for these two, the Phillies did surrender quite a bit. In Marquez, they had to give up the prospect in their system with probably the most helium this season of anyone. Marquez has dominated across two levels this year, striking out over 40% of hitters while walking just under 9% of them. He’s used a fastball/changeup combination to simply overwhelm the opposition, having a slider still in the nascent stages, but showing at least some promise of being average. He’s going to be sorely missed, but it’s the cost of doing business. Marty Gair is a pitcher in Clearwater that has been up to 100+ with his fastball, dominating those levels with the pitch, but is reliever only in profile. These are the types of pitchers one can draft and develop each season, so his inclusion is just fine.
Parting ways with Marquez in order to fix the offense with a hitter like Arraez is tough to swallow. In a few years, unless there is a banner flying over Citizens Bank Park, this trade will probably look like one the Phillies clearly lost. However, with time running out over the roster as is, it was the right player and right step to take to make sure they have a roster that can compete in October. We’ll just have to wait and see if the defense will be able to get enough outs to make sure the elite pitching trio they will be depending on in crucial games can withstand the moves that are being made.
Final grade: B-
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Phillies acquire Brooks Raley from the Mets for John Spikerman, Luke Gabrysh
Addressing the bullpen yet again, grabbing the 38 year old Raley from the Mets is a way of upgrading someone like Tim Mayza or Kyle Backhus. Whether or not you believe he is an actual upgrade from those two, one can also look at it this way.
Raley, vs. RHB: .216/.307/.330, 26.2 K%
Mayza, vs. RHB: .243/.291/.408, 28.8 K%
Backhus, vs. RHB: .292/.340/.500, 20.8 K%
He’s an upgrade when it comes to losing the platoon advantage in the game. That’s something that can be useful for the Phillies, particularly as they continue to try and get back to the top of the wild card standings.
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Also, this might be something, it might be nothing: facing Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, they are a combined 3 for 18 against him.
In moving John Spikerman and Luke Gabrysh, the team is simply moving some depth pieces. Neither projected to be much more than bench/role players with the team, if they even made it that far at all. At best, Spikerman might be a fourth/fifth outfielder while Gabrysh could be a middle reliever. A perfectly reasonable move to get someone that can help the bullpen right now.
Final grade: B
Phillies acquire Manuel Colon and cash from the Royals for Nolan Hoffman
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A trade barely worth mentioning, it is a trade the Phillies made nonetheless. Hoffman was designated for assignment once the earlier moves were made in the day, so getting anything of value for him is a win. In Colon, they are getting a low minors lottery ticket that looks like he strike some guys out, but is too far away to really get attached to just yet.
Final grade: A (hey, getting anything for a DFA’ed player is a win)
Does this move the needle much for the playoffs? Maybe. There were some needs the team had and those needs have been addressed. They might be closer to the actually making the playoffs, but the odds of them winning the World Series? Not so sure about that.
