It’s not every day that you see the Guardians making a notable trade before the calendar flips to July. (In fact, I can’t remember the last time the Guardians made a move like this this far in advance of the deadline).
If you missed it (somehow), the Guardians traded for 2-time Gold Glover Patrick Bailey from the Giants. They sent LHP Matt Wilkinson and their 2026 CB-A pick (#29) in return. In a corresponding move, the Guardians optioned Bo Naylor to AAA.
Patrick Bailey is a very interesting player. He is, arguably, the best defender in baseball (among all players, not just catchers). He is, by far, the best defensive catcher (although, on a rate basis, Hedges is close). His bat is underwhelming, but then again so are most of our catchers’. Before we get to the defense, let’s talk about his offense. This trade has been relatively polarizing because of his offensive numbers, and because people are (in my opinion) perhaps overrating what we gave up to get Bailey.
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Bailey is a switch-hitter, and has been around a 70 wRC+ over his career. However, despite that, he’s put up over 10 fWAR in his first 3 seasons. He has three more years of control (FA in 2030). His chase and whiff rates are around league-average, but his strikeout and walk rates are far below league average. He showed flashes in 2024 of perhaps being a league-average bat, but hasn’t gotten back to that since. In 2024 he sported the highest pull air rate of his career. We all know that’s something the Guardians specialize in with their hitting development, so perhaps there is some more offense to unlock with Bailey. Even if there isn’t, he’s a 3 WAR player on his defense alone. For reference, he’d be 3rd among all Guardians since 2023 in fWAR. That is an incredibly valuable player.
I do wonder if the Guardians think there’s an approach adjustment to be made with Bailey, especially one that prioritizes him pulling the ball in the air. Oracle Park is, pretty much across the board, disadvantageous for hitters, so hopefully the transition to Progressive Field will help. His bat speed has slowly crept up since 2023 (70.1 -> 72.8 this year).
To his defense! Bailey is the best defensive catcher of the 2020s and, with time, could very well become the best defensive catcher of the pitch-tracking era. He ranks first in framing runs, defensive runs saved, and fielding run value among catchers. He’s so good at framing that that becomes almost the entire conversation around him. You can read more in-depth about his framing here. He also excels at something that Guardians catchers have been, well, not great at: throwing out runners.
Apart from the fact that he is elite at framing, throwing out runners and, frankly, all aspects of catcher defense, pitchers rave about his game-calling and leadership, citing him as a big part of the reason they’ve succeeded in MLB. Bo Naylor has really struggled in that aspect. From what I’ve gathered, there are more than just a few Guardians pitchers who do not trust Naylor behind the plate. His ability to manage a game from start to finish has been a problem throughout his career, something that Hedges, for one, is among the best at. Bailey has frequently been able to get the best out of his pitchers. For example, he’s caught Logan Webb 78 times throughout his major league career. Three other catchers have caught Webb >10 times: Joey Bart (30), Curt Casali (26), Buster Posey (19). Webb has performed better with Bailey than with any of the other catchers, including with a future HOFer in Posey. Webb sports a 3.10 ERA across nearly 500 innings with Bailey, over a tenth of a run lower than with any of those catchers. (Vogt caught him 5 times, and Webb had an ERA well north of 7 with him behind the plate).
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The Guardians, essentially, traded for a younger, cheaper version of Hedges. This move clearly signals that they are comfortable with where the lineup is right now, and that they are fine with a black hole at catcher with the rest of the lineup producing. I know a lot of people are clamoring about Ingle, but I just don’t think the Guardians are 100% believers in his defense. Catcher defense is, obviously, incredibly important to the Guardians. It’s what they prioritize above all else in catchers. Ingle, they think, clearly isn’t ready to handle calling a game start to finish.
Regardless, Bailey should be extremely fun to watch behind the plate, and the Guardians didn’t have to give up anything that overwhelming for a 3 WAR player.
