Yesterday’s loss to the Minnesota Twins looks like an inflection point for the Cleveland Guardians’ leadoff hitter, Steven Kwan.
In the bottom of the 8th inning, with the Guardians trailing 5-3, David Fry and Brayan Rocchio singled to leadoff an inning against right-handed reliever Luis Garcia. For his career, Garcia has been a very serviceable relief pitcher with a 4.20 ERA. However, he is 39 years old and, as of today, has an ERA of 10.50 and an FIP of 6.12. So, to be clear, while potentially a competent middle reliever, not someone that an all-star hitter hitting leadoff should feel anything less than fully confident to get a hit or a walk.
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Enter Steven Kwan. As of today, he has a 67 wRC+. He is having an awful year, no doubt. But, it’s May and he has a career wRC+ of 109. He also has a career 117 wRC+ vs. RHP. He also has a 213 wRC+ for his career in 3-1 counts. And, guess what? Steven Kwan worked a 3-1 count.
NOW enter Tony Arnerich, acting manager of the Guardians yesterday as Stephen Vogt dealt with what I hope is simply a nasty cold (he sounded TERRIBLE in interviews on Saturday). Arnerich put the sacrifice bunt sign on for Steven Kwan. He clarified this was the case after the game, as reported by Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated on Twitter:
Are you curious how often a team’s leadoff hitter has been asked to lay down a sacrifice bunt in a 3-1 count with his team down 2 runs late in the game and at least one runner in scoring position? Well, I can tell you that from 2023 until yesterday, it did not happen one time. Let’s look further back… oh, ok, in the past decade prior to yesterday, it happened exactly ONE time… for the Chicago Cubs in 2022.
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Here’s the thing… I don’t even know that having Kwan bunt was 100% the wrong call. I mean, aside from the fact that I am fundamentally opposed to sacrifice bunts except essentially in situations where one run wins the game and the sacrifice bunt is with no outs to get a runner to third by an offensively challenged hitter who knows how to execute a bunt, I think I understand why Arnerich decided his best hope was sacrificing Kwan’s chances for a hit and punting things to Chase DeLauter and Jose Ramirez. It’s because Arnerich recognizes that Kwan is nowhere near at 109 wRC+ or 117 wRC+ hitter as he currently exists.
We can’t say “Oh, Arnerich is new to the team, he doesn’t know about good Kwan.” Arnerich has to know these players inside and out, their present and their past and projected future. He knows Kwan has traditionally handled RBI opportunities well and has been very effective in 3-1 counts. If he didn’t know that, well, to be honest, he should be fired for lack of preparation. But, I think he did know that. I think he made the very pragmatic assessment that Kwan was more likely to provide a 67 wRC+ output in that situation which would make advancing the runners to get to actual good hitters a much riskier proposition.
Last night needs to be the flare fired off by the Guardians’ bench coach to the team to say “Hey, it’s time to move Steven Kwan from the leadoff spot.” It’s time to platoon Kwan vs. LHP. It’s time to let Kwan have more room to breath to figure out if he can get back to the hitter he was before June 2025. From June 2025 until now, Kwan has a 77 wRC+. He’s still walking at a good rate and striking out at a slow rate. He’s just simply not hitting the ball well at all with a 15.6% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 85 mph, and a 1.4% barrel rate. He is Austin Hedges (well, prior to this season) who strikes out a lot less. And, yes, that is the kind of player you can justify asking to sacrifice bunt to give your actual good hitters a chance to win you the game, even though a sacrifice bunt down two STILL seems insane.
After last night, the Guardians cannot have it both ways. Either Kwan is a leadoff hitter and should be trusted to figure it out and HIT. OR, he is what Arnerich told us last night… a bottom of the order hitter who should only be looking to flip the order over to hitters who can actually imapct the baseball. I know it’s a hard conversation and I know Kwan is a selfless player who volunteered to switch to centerfield to help the team, even having won four consecutive gold gloves in his previous position. You hate showing any lack of confidence in him, Vogter. But, there is absolutely nothing wrong with telling a struggling veteran, “We are taking some pressure off you and batting you 7th for a while. We’d love to have you back in the leadoff spot as soon as possible. We are going to give you more days off to try to fix what’s wrong and work with our supposedly competent hitting staff. We believe in you and this is a chance to take a deep breath and get back to being you.”
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Will moving Steven Kwan down in the order solve the Guardians’ hitting issues? Of course not. But, it’s a simple, straight-forward way to try to help solve KWAN’S hitting issues, who remains a key to getting this offense humming. I would immediately install Travis Bazzana as the leadoff hitter and let him, DeLauter and Ramirez do their absolute best to drive pitchers insane for three batters for a while. But, after the message your bench coach sent last night, you simply cannot continue to bat Kwan leadoff and hope things magically change.
