UFC Oklahoma City is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., July 18, 2026) inside Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. In the main event, former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight champion, Dricus du Plessis, returns to action against former Welterweight kingpin, Kamaru Usman, in a fight that has stakes.
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We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in OKC when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Oklahoma City betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Oklahoma City odds here).
Last week’s recap: We have now cashed three weeks in a row, as Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh went over 2.5 rounds in an absolute firefight (watch highlights).
Let’s keep rolling below:
Kicking off the UFC OKC main card is one of the more intriguing fights as Tommy McMillen takes on Alberto Montes in a classic striker-versus-grappler Featherweight showdown.
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This week, I’m locking in McMillen vs. Montes to end inside the distance (-200).
Here’s Why:
Everything about this matchup screams violence.
McMillen has built his career around chaos. He owns a 90 percent finish rate and has gone to the judges just once as a professional, which was on the Contender Series, where he received his UFC contract. When he steps into the cage, somebody usually isn’t hearing the final horn.
His UFC debut only reinforced that reputation.
Was it technical? No.
But it was entertaining (watch it). McMillen throws caution to the wind, willingly enters firefights, and trusts his athleticism and power to bail him out. He’s the type of fighter who would rather trade bombs than manage a safe lead.
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It’s also worth mentioning why he’s probably favored here. McMillen is one of Sean O’Malley’s prized training partners and proteges, and the UFC clearly believes he has legitimate upside.
The problem is that his style invites danger.
That’s where Montes comes in.
Montes owns a 73 percent finish rate, including seven submission victories, and possesses one of the nastiest front choke games in the division. If McMillen recklessly shoots or leaves his neck exposed during one of his wild scrambles, Montes has the kind of grappling to end the fight instantly.
Stylistically, this is exactly what bettors want when backing an inside-the-distance prop.
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One man wants to knock your head off.
The other wants to wrap your neck up.
There’s also legitimate bad blood heading into fight week. The pre-fight trash talk has added real tension to an already volatile stylistic matchup. When emotions run high, patience usually disappears—and that’s exactly what favors an early finish.
What could go wrong?
The biggest risk is that both fighters unexpectedly respect each other’s strengths. McMillen could fight more cautiously after his wild UFC debut, while Montes may choose to strike longer before committing to takedowns.
Still, given the finishing rates, contrasting styles, and genuine hostility between the two, McMillen vs. Montes to end inside the distance (-200) feels like one of the strongest bets on the UFC Oklahoma City card.
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Tommy McMillen via KO/TKO/DQ: +300
Tommy McMillen via submission: +300
Tommy McMillen via decision: +500
Alberto Montes via KO/TKO/DQ: +650
Alberto Montes via submission: +275
Alberto Montes via decision: +600
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Oklahoma: “Du Plessis vs. Usman” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
