With conference play in full swing, fans are already watching where experts project their favorite teams to be seeded and placed.
That’s especially true for North Carolina, where expectations are always high in Chapel Hill, particularly as March approaches. The Tar Heels are 14-3 overall and 2-2 in ACC play. Right now, Carolina looks like a team that could land anywhere between a No. 4 and No. 6 seed — and the experts seem to agree.
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ESPN
Jan 14, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) dunks against the Stanford Cardinal in the second half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
In his most recent bracketology, Joe Lunardi of ESPN has North Carolina as the No. 5 seed in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament, matched up against Liberty, the projected No. 12 seed, in the first round.
Here’s how Lunardi projects the East Region:
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 ColgateNo. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 MiamiNo. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 LibertyNo. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 High PointNo. 6 Kansas vs. No. 11 George MasonNo. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 TempleNo. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 IndianaNo. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Long Island
Looking at the bracket, it’s brutal. If this were the actual field, it would be the Region of Death, featuring Duke, an undefeated Nebraska, Kansas, Michigan State and UConn. Of the teams in Lunardi’s projected East Region, four are opponents Carolina has either already faced (Kansas and Michigan State) or will face later this season (Duke twice and Miami).
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If North Carolina advances to the second round, it will have a chance to avenge its early-season loss to Michigan State.
USA Today
Jan 14, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis looks on against the Stanford Cardinal in the first half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
According to USA Today, North Carolina is projected to be the No. 5 seed in the Midwest Region.
Here’s how the region plays out:
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 DartmouthNo. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Seton HallNo. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 McNeese StateNo. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 UNC WilmingtonNo. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South FloridaNo. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Wright StateNo. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 AuburnNo. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Austin Peay
Their first-round matchup would be against McNeese State. If they were to win that game, they would face the winner of Florida, the defending national champion, and UNC Wilmington.
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Unlike Lunardi’s bracketology, the only team from this region on UNC’s regular-season schedule is Louisville. While this is still a tough region, it’s much more favorable to Carolina.
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC basketball: Mid-January NCAA Tournament projections
