How SEC’s nine-game schedule will impact lower-division conference teams originally appeared on The Sporting News
How the new format may alter bowl chances, recruiting battles, and rivalries
The SEC’s decision to move to a nine-game conference schedule beginning in 2026 has sent shockwaves across college football. For powerhouse programs, it’s another chance to showcase dominance. For others, it’s a dangerous new reality where bowl eligibility, coaching stability, and recruiting momentum will all be on the line. Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Arkansas are three programs that could feel the effects more than most.
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Texas A&M: A Shrinking Margin for Error
For Texas A&M, the expanded schedule means less room to stumble. Already battling through the toughest conference in college football, the Aggies now face one more SEC opponent each year plus a required nonconference game against a Power Four opponent. That’s 10 matchups against heavyweights before even considering the rest of the slate.
Head coach Mike Elko has acknowledged that tougher schedules can sharpen resumes for the College Football Playoff. Still, with A&M averaging just 7.6 wins per season since joining the SEC in 2012, the ninth game raises the stakes. Recruiting becomes even more critical. Every misstep will be magnified in a league that rewards playoff resumes but punishes inconsistency.
Mississippi State: The Uphill Climb Gets Steeper
Mississippi State may be hit hardest. Historically averaging fewer than three SEC wins per season since the late 1990s, the Bulldogs have leaned on nonconference games to secure bowl eligibility. Now, with only two “guaranteed” wins left outside the league, their path to six victories narrows.
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Facing annual showdowns with Alabama or LSU won’t just test the roster, it could weigh on coaching stability. Fans expect more than mediocrity, but the math works against the Bulldogs. Unless Jeff Lebby can elevate recruiting and player development fast, Mississippi State risks slipping into seasons where bowl games feel out of reach.
Arkansas: Caught in the Middle
Arkansas finds itself in a tricky spot. Sam Pittman has been outspoken against the nine-game format, saying, “Eight’s plenty,” pointing to the physical toll and the challenge of scheduling marquee nonconference games like Notre Dame. Yet the change is happening, and the Razorbacks, whose 2025 schedule is already ranked the third-toughest in the country by Phil Steele, must adapt.
The Hogs’ margin is thin. They’ve gone just 19–29 over the past four seasons, and adding another SEC opponent likely won’t ease that struggle. At the same time, the format could boost recruiting by ensuring marquee matchups in Fayetteville more often, including long-awaited visits from Georgia or Florida.
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Other teams could be impacted by the new schedule including Kentucky, who has gone 28-23 over the last four seasons, but only 12-20 in the SEC over that span. Auburn has put together a 22-28 record over the same time frame, while only going 10-22 in conference. Vanderbilt has gone 16-33, with only five SEC wins in the last four seasons. Although the Commodores were able to put together a solid season in 2024, going 7-6.
The last time any of these teams won more than three games in the SEC, was when Kentucky went 5-3 during the 2021 season. The road has not gotten any easier going forward.
The nine-game SEC schedule won’t just decide playoff positioning, it may reshape the middle and bottom of the league. For Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and anyone else, the challenge is clear: recruit better, win tougher games, and prove they belong. The SEC isn’t just raising the bar, it’s removing safety nets.
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