The Toronto Maple Leafs fell to the Florida Panthers 6-2 in a game that will be remembered by absolutely nobody, except perhaps for the players who made their NHL debut, such as Leafs defenseman William Villeneuve. With both teams firmly out of the playoffs, there was little to play for; the race for a better draft pick was the only thing on the minds of fans from both sides.
Crucial to Maple Leafs fans is finishing with a top-five draft pick. That is the only way the team can retain its selection at the 2026 NHL Draft, due to a trade that sent a conditional first-round pick and forward Fraser Minten to the Boston Bruins in exchange for veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo.
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Thanks to this loss and the Seattle Kraken’s 4-1 defeat by the Calgary Flames, Toronto moved into the fifth-worst spot in the NHL. This puts them right on the “bubble” of where they need to be to retain the pick. The term “bubble” is appropriate because the NHL holds a lottery for the top two selections, meaning one or two teams could potentially bump the Leafs from No. 5 to either No. 6 or No. 7. Should that happen, the selection would revert to Boston.
Moving to the fifth spot tremendously improves Toronto’s chances of keeping their 2026 pick. When they entered the night with the sixth-worst record in the league, Toronto had only a 15.4 percent chance of finishing with a top-five pick following the NHL Draft lottery. By moving into the No. 5 spot on Saturday, that chance improved to 41.9 percent.
While there is still a better chance than not that they fall to either No. 6 or No. 7 given how lottery odds are distributed, this is a much better situation for the franchise. There remains a very slim chance Toronto could finish with the third-worst record in the NHL, which would fully guarantee they keep the pick.
NHL Standings courtesy of NHL.com
Reaching that spot would require some help. The New York Rangers are three points behind Toronto, with both teams having two games remaining. The Calgary Flames are five points back from the Leafs but have three games remaining. If the Flames earn five more points than Toronto in their final three games compared to Toronto’s final two, they could conceivably pass the Leafs. In that scenario, the Flames would hold the first tiebreaker (regulation wins).
If you are a Leafs fan wanting the team to keep its pick, you should be cheering for the Flames to defeat the Utah Mammoth on Sunday evening.
The full tank is on.
