On Saturday, the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee shared the first Top 16 reveal of the season, projecting the top four seeds for each of the four NCAA Tournament regions.
Fort Worth 1 regional
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Sacramento 2 regional
Forth Worth 3 regional
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South Carolina (No. 3 overall)
Sacramento 4 regional
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Vanderbilt (No. 4 overall)
While such forecasts are fun, it’s often foolish to try to foresee how things will unfold, as evidenced by a number of Top-16 upsets, an near upsets, on Sunday.
Three Top-16 teams suffered losses: No. 5 Vanderbilt, a projected No. 1 seed, fell to unranked Georgia, No. 18 Kentucky knocked off No. 14 Ole Miss, a No. 4 seed, and No. 20 Maryland, a No. 4 seed, charged back to take down No. 8 Ohio State, a No. 3 seed.
Several other Top-16 squads barely survived hard-fought affairs.
No. 11 Duke, a projected No. 3 seed, notched a 16th-straight win over No. 21 North Carolina by four points, 72-68. No. 4 Texas and No. 22 Tennessee demonstrated tons of heart and no quit in a rumble on Rocky Top, with the Longhorns leaving with the 65-63 victory.
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That win, based on the analysis of ESPN Bracketologist Charlie Creme, likely will result in Texas taking the final No. 1 seed from Vandy.
With rather comfortable wins over unthreatening opponents, No. 2 UCLA and No. 9 Louisville kept themselves in position for a No. 1 seed and No. 2 seeds, respectively.
No. 7 Michigan, a No. 2 seed, solidified their own status while delivering a blow to No. 13 Michigan State, a No. 4 seed, with 21-point rivalry win, 86-65. No. 17 TCU, a No. 3 seed, and No. 10 Oklahoma, a No. 4 seed, found themselves in tighter battles before eventually pulling away from ranked opponents, with Horned Frogs winning 59-50 over No. 22 West Virginia and the Sooners prevailing 79-71 at No. 23 Alabama.
Here’s a closer look at the trio of upsets with Top-16 implications.
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Georgia 76, No. 5 Vanderbilt 74
Mikayla Blakes was held scoreless in the first quarter and Vanderbilt trailed by as many as 14 points, and yet the Commodores had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime with just under four seconds remaining.
An ambitious behind-the-back pass from Aubrey Galvan set up Sacha Washington for push-shot in the paint that would have forced OT. It missed, giving Georgia the 76-74 win—their first over an opponent ranked in the top five since 2021.
Dani Carnegie busted out of her recent shooting slump to led the Dawgs, scoring a game-high 29 points. Carnegie was 5-for-8 from 3, while also leading the team with eight boards. Mia Woolfolk contributed a critical 19 points on 8-for-10 shooting, plus seven rebounds, for Georgia.
Despite going scoreless in the first frame, Blakes still ended the afternoon with 27 points, 19 of which game from the foul line. Defensively, UGA (somewhat) contained the nation’s leading scorer by crowding her, choosing to make sure she didn’t get cooking—even if the cost was a ton of free throws.
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Next, Georgia welcomes another top-16 team to Athens in Oklahoma. Can the Dawgs also play spoiler against the Sooners?
No. 18 Kentucky 74, No. 14 Ole Miss 57
ESPN’s Creme indicated that this matchup carried the most significant Top-16 implications, with a Wildcat upset likely to unseat the Rebels and grant Kentucky a Top-16 spot.
Head coach Kenny Brooks’ squad delivered, scoring their largest win over a ranked opponent this season, 74-57.
Outside of a fourth-quarter run from the Rebels that trimmed the margin to six points, the Wildcats cruised, benefitting from Ole Miss’ worst shooting afternoon of the season, as well as an excellent performance from Clara Strack. Strack tallied 28 points and nine rebounds, while Tonie Morgan added 14 points and nine dimes.
The Rebels will have opportunities to redeem themselves in the week ahead, and possibly reclaim Top-16 status. Wins over Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina, Ole Miss’ next three opponents, certainly would enhance their resume.
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For Kentucky, a date with a Vandy team looking to bounce back from their aforementioned loss presents a chance to cement their standing.
No. 20 Maryland 76, No. 8 Ohio State
A 19-point deficit is a heavy dose of adversity for most teams. But not for Maryland.
Plagued by season-ending injuries, the Terrapins could have deemed this a lost season. Instead, they’ve decided no challenge is too daunting, completing their largest comeback since Nov. 2019.
A 20-7 to start the third quarter was the first Terrapin torrent. Then, a 12-0 run to begin the fourth earned Maryland the lead, which they eventually stretched to nine points, 69-60, until the Buckeyes battled back.
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Ohio State never regained the lead, although missed free throws from both sides resulted in a down-to-the-wire finish.
Down by one point with three seconds remaining, Jaloni Cambridge got a decent look from 3, but the potential game-winner was off—and another epic Maryland comeback was complete. The 76-75 win represents the Terps’ first road victory over a top-10 team since 2022.
Matching 17-point performances from Oluchi Okananwa and Yarden Garzon led Maryland, with Okananwa also grabbing 10 boards for the double-double. Cambridge and Chance Gray handled the majority of the scoring for Ohio State, combining for 54 points.
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Avoiding letdown losses to Big Ten lesser lights before a strong showing against Michigan in the final game of the regular season should keep the Terrapins inside the Top 16. As Ohio State faces a tougher slate, one that also includes a date with Michigan, the Buckeyes will have opportunities to reaffirm their Top-16 standing.
